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Gujarat Gas Ltd: 1 director
A director at Gujarat Gas Ltd sold 5,000 shares at 674.292INR and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...
- Swarnendu Bhushan
MOSL: GUJARAT GAS (Buy)-Lower LNG prices bode well for profitability
Gujarat Gas: Lower LNG prices bode well for profitability (GUJGA IN, Mkt Cap USD2.8b, CMP INR290, TP INR340, 17% Upside, Buy) GUJGA has a long-term contract with Shell which will expire gradually by 2024. Volumes under the contract have already reduced from 2.5mmscmd to 2.2mmscmd and are expected to decline to 2mmscmd from 2020. Due to the supply glut globally, LNG prices have declined from USD6.0/mmBtu in 2019 to below USD3/mmBtu this year. Replacement by low-cost LNG would improve prof...
- Swarnendu Bhushan
MOSL: GUJARAT GAS (Buy)-Beat on margins, strong performance to continu...
GUJARAT GAS: Beat on margins, strong performance to continue (GUJGA IN, Mkt Cap USD2.9b, CMP INR296, TP INR340, 15% Upside, Buy) Reported EBITDA marginally exceeded our estimate (by 5%) owing to higher-than-expected EBITDA/scm of INR4.3. Volumes were in line with our estimate at 9.2mmscmd. The National Green Tribunal has mandated penalty against the Pollution Control Boards that do not comply with its Nov’19 order of curbing pollution in critically and severely polluted industrial cluste...
- Swarnendu Bhushan
MOSL: GUJARAT GAS (Neutral)-EBITDA/scm in line, Morbi volumes at 5.2mm...
GUJARAT GAS: EBITDA/scm in line, Morbi volumes at 5.2mmscmd (GUJGA IN, Mkt Cap USD2b, CMP INR205, TP INR189, 8% Downside, Neutral) GUJGA's reported EBITDA was at INR3.7b (v/s INR1.6b in 2QFY19) with PBT at INR2.6b. The company has adopted the new tax rate and measured its DTL during the quarter, which led to realization of deferred tax of INR3.0b. PAT was at INR5.2b versus INR0.4b in 2QFY19. For 1HFY20, EBITDA stood at INR8.4b (v/s INR4.1b in 1HFY19), supported by the NGT ban at Morbi volum...
- Swarnendu Bhushan
MOSL: GUJARAT GAS (Neutral)-Lower spot prices result in better EBITDA/...
GUJARAT GAS: Lower spot prices result in better EBITDA/scm (GUJGA IN, Mkt Cap USD1.6b, CMP INR164, TP INR175, 7% Upside, Neutral) GUJGA reported strong EBIDTA of INR4.7b (+50% beat; +88% YoY, +84% QoQ), driven by lower sourcing cost. PAT was up 93% YoY at INR2.3b. Total sales volumes were 4% higher than our estimate at 9.2mmscmd (+42% YoY/QoQ), primarily led by higher industrial volumes. EBITDA/scm for the quarter stood at INR5.6 (v/s INR4.2 in 1QFY19 and INR4.3 in 4QFY19). This is the h...
- Swarnendu Bhushan
MOSL: GUJARAT GAS (Neutral)-Competitive pressure impacting performance
GUJARAT GAS: Competitive pressure impacting performance (GUJGA IN, Mkt Cap USD1.6b, CMP INR159, TP INR151, 5% Downside, Neutral) EBIDTA increased 14% YoY (-21% QoQ) to INR2.5b (in-line) in 4QFY19. PAT grew 77% YoY (-23% QoQ) to INR1.2b (our estimate: INR921m), primarily due to a lower tax rate of 22.7% owing to write-back of excess tax provision and accrued income tax refund during the year. Total sales volumes declined 5% YoY (-2% QoQ) to 6.4mmscmd (in-line). EBITDA/scm of INR4.3 was in li...
- Swarnendu Bhushan
MOSL: GUJARAT GAS (Buy)-Strong volume growth outlook
Gujarat Gas: Strong volume growth outlook (GUJGA IN, Mkt Cap USD1.5b, CMP INR153, TP INR183, 19% Upside, Buy) We recently met the management of Gujarat Gas (GUJGA); key highlights: Closure/dismantling of all coal gasifiers at Morbi boosts volumes In early 2019, sales volumes were down to ~2.1-2.2mmscmd, but the closure of coal gasifiers has boosted current sales volumes to ~3mmscmd at Morbi. Although ceramic manufacturers have shifted, they have not come forward to sign term contracts...
Gujarat Gas' Q3FY19 results (Outperformer) - Strongest quarter in 3 ye...
Q3FY19 result highlights Gujarat Gas (GGL) reported highest ever adjusted PAT of Rs1.5bn, well above IDFCe of Rs1.3bn (+10%) and consensus estimates, growing +2.5x yoy led by beat on margins. 9MFY19 PAT of Rs3bn +33% yoy Volumes of 6.55 mmscmd, +4% yoy, in line. Volume growth was driven by CNG (1.42 mmscmd, +10% yoy, est 1.37mmscmd), Dom PNG volumes of 0.54 mmscmd (+5% yoy, in line) while Ind/Comm volumes of 4.6 mmscmd grew 2% yoy, below est 4.7 mmscmd. 9MFY19 volumes of 6.6 mmscmd grew +8.3...
- Swarnendu Bhushan
MOSL: GUJARAT GAS (Buy)-Record EBITDA/scm drives beat to our estimates
Gujarat Gas: Record EBITDA/scm drives beat to our estimates (GUJGA IN, Mkt Cap USD1.2b, CMP INR124, TP INR162, 31% Upside, Buy) GUJGA reported significantly higher EBIDTA of INR3.2b (v/s INR2b a year ago, more than double QoQ) as against our estimate of INR1.8b. PAT came in at INR1.4b (v/s our estimate of INR576m; doubled YoY), primarily due to lower raw material cost. EBITDA/scm increased to INR5.3 (v/s our estimate of INR2.9, INR2.6 in 2QFY19), however, the street has reservations abou...
Gujarat Gas' Q2FY19 results (Outperformer) - A miss on margins, prospe...
Q2FY19 result highlights Gujarat Gas (GGL) adjusted PAT of Rs536mn, down 12% yoy (IDFCe 0.7bn). Sharp margin dip qoq (lower than est) drove the miss vs IDFCe. Volumes of 6.66mmscmd grew 16% yoy (IDFCe 6.55mmscmd) The volume strength driven by demand from CNG segment (+11% yoy) and strong growth in Industrial demand (+18% yoy). Domestic PNG demand was also strong, growing 17% yoy. Blended gas costs of Rs26.5/scm (US$10.1/mmbtu) were higher than IDFCe Rs26/cm (US$10/mmbtu), withr realisations...
Gujarat Gas' Q2FY19 results (Outperformer) - A miss on margins, prospe...
Q2FY19 result highlights Gujarat Gas (GGL) adjusted PAT of Rs536mn, down 12% yoy (IDFCe 0.7bn). Sharp margin dip qoq (lower than est) drove the miss vs IDFCe. Volumes of 6.66mmscmd grew 16% yoy (IDFCe 6.55mmscmd) The volume strength driven by demand from CNG segment (+11% yoy) and strong growth in Industrial demand (+18% yoy). Domestic PNG demand was also strong, growing 17% yoy. Blended gas costs of Rs26.5/scm (US$10.1/mmbtu) were higher than IDFCe Rs26/cm (US$10/mmbtu), withr realisations...
Company update: Gujarat Gas (Outperformer) - Resetting expectations, V...
We present our revised estimates for Gujarat Gas (GGL), post the domestic price hike in October (Our note here )and our recent interaction with the company’s management. In our view, GGL’s growth prospects remain undiminished, notwithstanding its lack of success in the latest City Gas Distribution (CGD) bid round, with the company already seeing traction from 11-12 additional districts being developed over last 2 years, GGL is also close to finalising the buyout of GAIL’s 50% stake in Vadodara G...
Gujarat Gas' Q1FY19 results (Outperformer) - Strong yoy volumes. Margi...
Q1FY19 result highlights Gujarat Gas (GGL) adjusted PAT of Rs896mn, down 14% yoy (IDFCe 835bn, consensus est 785mn). Strong margin improvement qoq (higher than est) drove the beat vs IDFCe. Volumes of 6.44mmscmd grew 5% yoy (IDFCe 6.5mmscmd) The volume strength driven by demand from CNG segment (+11% yoy) and steady growth in Industrial demand (+4% yoy). The industrial/comm volumes lower qoq due to stock builds at Morbi in Q4FY18. Blended gas costs of Rs23/scm (US$9.2/mmbtu) were higher tha...
- Swarnendu Bhushan
MOSL: GUJARAT GAS (Buy)-Price hikes drive a strong beat on EBITDA
Gujarat Gas: Price hikes drive a strong beat on EBITDA (GUJGA IN, Mkt Cap USD1.6b, CMP INR778, TP INR990, 27% Upside, Buy) GUJGA reported EBITDA of INR2.5b (-8% YoY, +12% QoQ), significantly above our estimate of INR1.9b, led by better-than-expected margins. PAT of INR1.2b (+16% YoY, +84% QoQ) came in ahead of our estimate of INR617m - the difference at PAT level increased due to higher other income of INR584m (est. of INR145m; +645% YoY, +489% QoQ). Other income includes INR489m toward i...
- Swarnendu Bhushan
MOSL: GUJARAT GAS (Buy)-Multiple triggers ahead-Expect strong volume g...
GUJARAT GAS: Multiple triggers ahead; Expect strong volume growth (GUJGA IN, Mkt Cap USD1.9b, CMP INR729, TP INR975, 34% Upside, Buy) We met management of Gujarat Gas (GUJGA). Key highlights from our meeting. Abundant potential… Gujarat is one of the most industrialized states in India, with presence of a number of industries such as refining, petrochemicals, chemicals, automobiles, pharmaceuticals, ceramics, textiles and engineering. Gujarat Industrial Development Corporation (GIDC) ...
Gujarat Gas' Q4FY18 results (Outperformer) - Record volumes for the qt...
Q4FY18 result highlights Gujarat Gas (GGL) adjusted PAT of Rs660mn, up 99% yoy (IDFCe 1bn, consensus est 700mn). FY18 PAT of Rs2.9bn grew 31% yoy, on top of 21% yoy growth in FY17 as well. The volume strength driven by continued revival of demand from industrial/comm segment (+12% yoy) and steady growth in domestic/CNG demand (+10% yoy). The industrial/comm volumes of 4.7 mmscmd is the highest volume from this segment since Q1FY16. Blended gas costs of Rs22.3/scm (US$9.3/mmbtu) were however...
- Swarnendu Bhushan
MOSL: GUJARAT GAS (Buy)-EBITDA above estimate led by better volumes an...
Gujarat Gas: EBITDA above estimate led by better volumes and EBITDA/scm (GUJGA IN, Mkt Cap USD1.9b, CMP INR843, TP INR1122, 33% Upside, Buy) GUJGA reported EBITDA of INR2.2b (+52% YoY, +11% QoQ), slightly above our estimate of INR2.1b, led by better-than-expected volumes and margins. PAT of INR660m (+99% YoY, +10% QoQ) came in lower than our estimate of INR713m due to a higher tax rate of 43.4% v/s 34.4% in 3QFY18 and 20.2% in 4QFY17. For FY18, EBITDA grew by 20% YoY to INR8.9b and PAT b...
- Swarnendu Bhushan
MOSL: GUJARAT GAS (Buy)-Ujjwala Scheme in PNG residential-See little n...
GUJARAT GAS: Ujjwala Scheme in PNG residential; See little negative impact on financials; positive on volume growth (GUJGA IN, Mkt Cap USD1.9b, CMP INR883, TP INR1195, 35% Upside, Buy) Government starts Ujjwala Scheme for residential PNG consumers In 2016, the central government had launched the Ujjwala Scheme to increase access to subsidized LPG for below poverty line (BPL) consumers. The Gujarat state government has launched a similar scheme for piped natural gas (PNG) to BPL consumer...
Gujarat Gas' Q3FY18 results (Outperformer) - Volumes strong, margins w...
Q3FY18 result highlights Gujarat Gas (GGL) adjusted PAT of Rs600mn, up 42% yoy (IDFCe 864mn, consensus est 550-600mn). Miss vs IDFCe was driven by lower gross margins of Rs6/scm vs est of Rs7/scm even as volumes surprises positively at 6.3 mmscmd, up 18/10% yoy/qoq vs IDFCe of 6 mmscmd. The volume strength is a material positive, and has been driven by continued revival of demand from industrial/comm segment (+22% yoy) and steady growth in domestic/CNG demand (+9/11% yoy respectively). The i...
- Swarnendu Bhushan
MOSL: GUJARAT GAS (Buy)-EBITDA above estimate led by better volumes an...
Gujarat Gas: EBITDA above estimate led by better volumes and EBITDA/scm (GUJGA IN, Mkt Cap USD1.8b, CMP INR842, TP INR1014, 20% Upside, Buy) GUJGA reported EBITDA of INR2.0b (+17% YoY, -1% QoQ), above our estimate of INR1.6b, led by better-than-expected volumes and margins. PAT increased 42% YoY (-2% QoQ) to INR600m. PNG volumes strong: PNG industrial/commercial volumes stood at 4.5mmscmd (+22% YoY, +11% QoQ), and PNG household volumes at 0.5mmscmd (+9% YoY, +14% QoQ). Despite higher sp...
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