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ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Aalberts: highlights ING Benelux Conference Brussels 2024, Ackermans & Van Haaren: Highlights ING Benelux Conference Brussels,Ackermans & Van Haaren: Strong operational performance of underlying companies and guidance fine-tuned upwards, AMG: Highlights ING Benelux Conference Brussels, Aperam: Highlights ING Benelux Conference Brussels, Arcadis: Highlights ING Benelux conference, Azelis: Highlights ING Benelux Conference Brussels, Bekaert: Guidance cut and €200m buyback as sweetener, CFE: No new...

Martijn Den Drijver
  • Martijn Den Drijver

TKH GROUP NV : Not 100% de-risked yet, estimates and TP lowered again

>Lowering estimates modestly, 2024 EBITA guidance still at risk - We have updated our estimates after the Q3 2024 earnings release, which disappointed and caused the full year EBITA guidance to be lowered, as we had feared. We are lowering our 2024-2026 sales estimates by 2%-3% and our 2024-2026 EBITAe by 3%, reflecting a continued cautious stance on Smart Vision and several businesses in Smart Connectivity. For 2024, we are now forecasting an EBITAe of €203m, which i...

Tijs Hollestelle
  • Tijs Hollestelle

TKH Group/We can only change our expectations/BUY

TKH published yet another disappointing set of results. 3Q24 EBITA was around 16% below our forecast and TKH lowered its FY24 EBITA guidance by roughly 5% taking the mid-point of the guidance. Our previous forecasts were rather optimistic as we anticipated significantly higher revenue in the Connectivity division from offshore cable production, covering the already increased fixed cost base. But TKH had to postpone the ramp up of the new offshore wind cable factory in 3Q due to start-up issues. ...

Jacob Mekhael ... (+2)
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Thibault Leneeuw
Martijn Den Drijver
  • Martijn Den Drijver

TKH GROUP NV : Weak Q3, 2024 EBITA guidance lowered

>Weak sales, EBITA and EBITA margins in Q3 - Continued setbacks in Smart Connectivity and Smart Vision are the key reason for a weak Q3 for TKH. Sales came in at €393m or a miss of 9% versus our estimates (no css) with organic growth coming in at -6.2% where we had anticipated positive growth of 1.2%. Due to the lower sales volumes and start-up costs in Smart Connectivity and despite good progress on the €15m cost savings program, EBITA came in at €42.1m or a miss of ...

Martijn Den Drijver
  • Martijn Den Drijver

TKH GROUP NV : Preview Q3 + lowered 2024-2026 estimates and TP

>Cautiousness Vision + Manufacturing results in lower 2024-2026 estimates - We had not updated our forecast for TKH since the Q1 2024 trading update and H1 2024 results release: mea culpa. So although not ideal, we are using this preview to update our estimates. Given the disappointing H1 2024 results and 2024 guidance, we lower our estimates materially. We lower our 2024 to 2026 sales forecast by 3% to 8% and our EBITA estimates by 16% to 19%. For 2024, we now forec...

Wim Hoste
  • Wim Hoste

Umicore FIRST LOOK: Update on cost savings and management changes

Umicore has announced some leadership changes within its management team whilst also disclosing the ambition for € 40m additional cost savings and the decision to continue to pause construction of its Canadian Battery Materials plant. We are still awaiting the outcome of the ongoing strategy review for the Battery Materials business. We remind that we have already taken a more cautious approach with our FY30 CAM volume estimate at 200 GWh, which compares to the previous company target of 400 GWh...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Ahold Delhaize: A strong 3Q24, driven by Europe. CFE: 3Q24 preview - able to keep net profit outlook? CTP: Good results, guidance reiterated. DEME Group: 3Q24 preview - keeping the FY outlook. Exor: Ferrari hitting Chinese wall. IBA: Contract win for E-beam sterilisation solution in the Dominican Republic. Kendrion: 3Q24 preview - harsh end markets but easy comps. Proximus: 2025 price increases on the high side, more asset sales in the pipeline. Solvay: 3Q24 results beat by 4% bu...

Marc Zwartsenburg ... (+2)
  • Marc Zwartsenburg
  • CEFA

PostNL/Mail remains a headache/HOLD

We keep our HOLD rating but lower our target price from €1.20 to €1.10 reflecting our trimmed estimates. As long as we lack visibility on the outcome of the potential relaxation of the delivery model in mail and perhaps compensation for losses in the Universal Service Obligation (USO), we expect that inflationary pressures in Mail will balance out the upside potential in Parcels. This will in our view prevent a re-rating of the shares also as the soft economic outlook combined with intense compe...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Ageas: More bidders for ESURE UK ASR: Completion of KNAB sale, starting extra SBB D'Ieteren: Holding financing more costly, 2024 guidance (excluding financing) reassures Ebusco: Released from obligation to deliver 76 buses PostNL: 3Q24 below, FY24 outlook down, mail weak, parcels stronger; CEO steps down Sif Group: Preview - getting ready for 2025 Staffing: US temp volume weaker in October, Aug/Sep revised down, NFP jobs miss

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+4)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Wim Lewi
Stefano Toffano ... (+2)
  • Stefano Toffano
  • Wim Gille

PostNL : Another tough quarter. CEO to step down in Q2 25

>Normalised EBIT below ccs and AAOBe driven by mix pressures - While Q3 is a relatively small quarter, today’s results highlight once again the company’s structural challenges. Q3 24 group revenue was slightly higher than ccs and our expectations, coming it at € 756m for the quarter. Normalised EBIT was € -18m (€ -12m for Q3 23), much lower than ccs. The quarter was once again marked by a strong unfavourable mix effects in both Parcels and Mail, and continued pressur...

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