reports
- Mattias Holmberg
Assa Abloy (Buy, TP: SEK345.00) - M&A, FX drives positive revisions
We are in line with consensus on sales and adj. EBIT for Q1e and expect end-market trends broadly similar to Q4, with the company demonstrating defensive characteristics and the ability to perform well in a weak construction market (2/3 of sales are aftermarket). We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to SEK345 (325) after raising our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by 4–5% (driven by FX and M&A); we are 3–4% above consensus.
- Chaima Ferrandon
- Delphine Brault
- Sven Edelfelt
ODDO : Focus on Construction: a bitter present (2024), a sweeter futur...
With the exception of the US, construction markets should continue to shrink in 2024 (-2% in Europe) before rebounding on the back of lower interest rates. Against this backdrop, groups will be differentiated mainly on the basis of their resilience (geographical and price/cost mix), capital allocation (and special situations) and valuation. In this context, we are upgrading our recommendations on KONE (modernisation as an alternative source of growth to China) and Holcim (a subst...
LR LEGRAND SA
SGO COMPAGNIE DE SAINT-GOBAIN SA
DG VINCI SA
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
KNEBV KONE OYJ CLASS B
FGR EIFFAGE SA
EN BOUYGUES SA
RXL REXEL SA
GBF BILFINGER SE
GEBN GEBERIT AG
SCHP SCHINDLER HOLDING AG PREF
HEI HEIDELBERGCEMENT AG
DOKA DORMAKABA HOLDING AG
AALB AALBERTS N.V.
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
ACS ACTIVIDADES DE CONSTRUCCION Y SERVICIOS SA
SIK SIKA AG
- Chaima Ferrandon
- Delphine Brault
- Sven Edelfelt
ODDO : Focus construction : un présent amer (2024), un futur plus doux...
Hormis les Etats-Unis, les marchés de la construction devraient continuer à reculer en 2024 (-2% en Europe) avant de rebondir à la faveur d’une baisse des taux. Dans ce contexte, la différenciation entre les groupes se fera essentiellement sur leur capacité de résistance (mix géographique et prix/ coûts), l’allocation du capital (et situations spéciales) et leur valorisation. Face à cet environnement, nous relevons nos recommandations sur KONE (la modernisation comme relais de la...
LR LEGRAND SA
SGO COMPAGNIE DE SAINT-GOBAIN SA
DG VINCI SA
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
KNEBV KONE OYJ CLASS B
FGR EIFFAGE SA
EN BOUYGUES SA
RXL REXEL SA
GBF BILFINGER SE
GEBN GEBERIT AG
SCHP SCHINDLER HOLDING AG PREF
HEI HEIDELBERGCEMENT AG
DOKA DORMAKABA HOLDING AG
AALB AALBERTS N.V.
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
ACS ACTIVIDADES DE CONSTRUCCION Y SERVICIOS SA
SIK SIKA AG
- Chaima Ferrandon
- Delphine Brault
- Sven Edelfelt
ODDO : Focus on Construction: a bitter present (2024), a sweeter futur...
With the exception of the US, construction markets should continue to shrink in 2024 (-2% in Europe) before rebounding on the back of lower interest rates. Against this backdrop, groups will be differentiated mainly on the basis of their resilience (geographical and price/cost mix), capital allocation (and special situations) and valuation. In this context, we are upgrading our recommendations on KONE (modernisation as an alternative source of growth to China) and Holcim (a subst...
LR LEGRAND SA
SGO COMPAGNIE DE SAINT-GOBAIN SA
DG VINCI SA
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
KNEBV KONE OYJ CLASS B
FGR EIFFAGE SA
EN BOUYGUES SA
RXL REXEL SA
GEBN GEBERIT AG
SCHP SCHINDLER HOLDING AG PREF
HEI HEIDELBERGCEMENT AG
CRG CRH PLC
DOKA DORMAKABA HOLDING AG
AALB AALBERTS N.V.
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
ACS ACTIVIDADES DE CONSTRUCCION Y SERVICIOS SA
SIK SIKA AG
- Chaima Ferrandon
- Delphine Brault
- Sven Edelfelt
ODDO : Focus construction : un présent amer (2024), un futur plus doux...
Hormis les Etats-Unis, les marchés de la construction devraient continuer à reculer en 2024 (-2% en Europe) avant de rebondir à la faveur d’une baisse des taux. Dans ce contexte, la différenciation entre les groupes se fera essentiellement sur leur capacité de résistance (mix géographique et prix/ coûts), l’allocation du capital (et situations spéciales) et leur valorisation. Face à cet environnement, nous relevons nos recommandations sur KONE (la modernisation comme relais de la...
LR LEGRAND SA
SGO COMPAGNIE DE SAINT-GOBAIN SA
DG VINCI SA
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
KNEBV KONE OYJ CLASS B
FGR EIFFAGE SA
EN BOUYGUES SA
RXL REXEL SA
GEBN GEBERIT AG
SCHP SCHINDLER HOLDING AG PREF
HEI HEIDELBERGCEMENT AG
CRG CRH PLC
DOKA DORMAKABA HOLDING AG
AALB AALBERTS N.V.
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
ACS ACTIVIDADES DE CONSTRUCCION Y SERVICIOS SA
SIK SIKA AG
- Emmanuel Matot
FP TOTAL SE
PUB PUBLICIS GROUPE SA
IPN IPSEN SA
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
DG VINCI SA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
ULVR UNILEVER PLC
KBC KBC GROUP N.V.
AMUN AMUNDI SA
ISP INTESA SANPAOLO S.P.A.
ORSTED ORSTED
GN GN STORE NORD A/S
SOI SOITEC SA
NEM NEMETSCHEK SE
UCG UNICREDIT S.P.A.
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
SIE SIEMENS AG
ULA UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
ADYEN ADYEN NV
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
- Emmanuel Matot
FP TOTAL SE
PUB PUBLICIS GROUPE SA
IPN IPSEN SA
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
DG VINCI SA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
ULVR UNILEVER PLC
KBC KBC GROUP N.V.
AMUN AMUNDI SA
ISP INTESA SANPAOLO S.P.A.
ORSTED ORSTED
GN GN STORE NORD A/S
SOI SOITEC SA
NEM NEMETSCHEK SE
UCG UNICREDIT S.P.A.
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
SIE SIEMENS AG
ULA UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
ADYEN ADYEN NV
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
- Delphine Brault
- Quentin Borie
Assa Abloy : The acquisition of HHI, which acted as a drag in 2023, sh...
>Q4 2023 a shade below forecasts, but the margin is very solid - The group reported yesterday morning Q4 2023 results just below forecasts at the operating level. Sales rose by 0.5% on an organic basis, of which a volume effect of -2% and a price effect of just over 2%. Adjusted EBIT was SEK 5.7bn, up 11% and 2% below forecasts. At 15.5%, the margin was down 20bp and a shade below forecasts (15.6%). The acquisition of HHI had a dilutive impact of 130bp on the mar...
- Delphine Brault
- Quentin Borie
Assa Abloy : L'acquisition de HHI, qui a été un poids en 2023, devrait...
>Un T4 2023 un peu en-dessous des attentes, mais la marge est très solide - Le groupe a publié hier matin des résultats T4 2023 très légèrement sous les attentes au niveau opérationnel. Le chiffre d’affaires progresse de 0.5% en organique, dont -2% d’effet volumes et un peu plus de 2% d’effet prix. L’EBIT ajusté atteint 5.7 MdSEK, en hausse de 11%, 2% sous les attentes. La marge de 15.5% est en retrait de 20 pb et légèrement inférieure aux attentes (15.6%). L’acq...
- Mattias Holmberg
Assa Abloy (Buy, TP: SEK325.00) - Stable assa rock
We view Assa Abloy’s Q4 report as mostly undramatic, but believe it again underlined its defensive characteristics and ability to perform well in a weaker construction market, something it should be able to prove also in 2024e. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to SEK325 (310), while we have made minor changes to our 2024e adj. EBIT (raised 1.6%).
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
FP TOTAL SE
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
DBK DEUTSCHE BANK AG
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
QIA QIAGEN NV
SCR SCOR SE
WHA WERELDHAVE N.V.
VOE VOESTALPINE AG
VASTN VASTNED RETAIL NV
BC8 BECHTLE AG
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
BP. BP P.L.C.
EVD CTS EVENTIM AG & CO. KGAA
AKZA AKZO NOBEL N.V.
ENR SIEMENS ENERGY AG
ECMPA EUROCOMMERCIAL PROPERTIES NV
SHUR SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED
- Delphine Brault
- Quentin Borie
Assa Abloy : Q4 results slightly below expectations, but the margin ex...
>Q4 organic revenue growth 0.4%, adjusted EBIT margin 15.5% (-20 bp) - Sales reached SEK 36.97bn, up 0.4% organically which is in line with our expectations (0.1%) and those of the consensus (0.3%). The Americas (thanks to the US non-residential market) and Entrance systems divisions posted positive growth, with revenues up 5% and 3% respectively on a like-for-like basis. EMEIA and Asia-Pacific revenues were down 2% and 1% respectively, with a further decli...
- Delphine Brault
- Quentin Borie
Assa Abloy : Q4 results slightly below expectations, but the margin ex...
>Q4 organic revenue growth 0.4%, adjusted EBIT margin 15.5% (-20 bp) - Sales reached SEK 36.97bn, up 0.4% organically which is in line with our expectations (0.1%) and those of the consensus (0.3%). The Americas (thanks to the US non-residential market) and Entrance systems divisions posted positive growth, with revenues up 5% and 3% respectively on a like-for-like basis. EMEIA and Asia-Pacific revenues were down 2% and 1% respectively, with a further decli...
- Delphine Brault
- Quentin Borie
ODDO : 2024, year of transition … and growth
2024 is set to be less impressive than 2023 (comparison bases, persistent inflation and tougher price hikes). We continue to play the green Capex theme and remain cautious on the construction segment. After the end-of-year rally, we see more limited re-rating potential. Based on our 2024 guidance scenarios, our Top Picks are Atlas Copco, Schneider Electric and Siemens (green Capex exposure, potential for earning upgrades over the course of the year). We have downgraded Rexel to N...
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
KNEBV KONE OYJ CLASS B
ABB ABB LTD.
RXL REXEL SA
ALO ALSTOM SA
GEBN GEBERIT AG
SCHP SCHINDLER HOLDING AG PREF
DOKA DORMAKABA HOLDING AG
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
SKF B SKF AB CLASS B
TLGO TALGO SA
SIE SIEMENS AG
VOS VOSSLOH AG
CAF CONSTRUCCIONES Y AUXILIAR DE FERROCARRILES S.A.
KBX KNORR-BREMSE AG
SRAIL STADLER RAIL AG
ENR SIEMENS ENERGY AG
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB
- Delphine Brault
- Quentin Borie
ODDO : 2024, année de transition … et de croissance
L’année 2024 sera moins flamboyante que 2023 (base de comparaison, inflation persistante et hausses de prix plus difficiles). Nous continuons de privilégier la thématique ‘Green Capex’ et restons prudents sur le segment de la construction. Après le rallye boursier de fin d’année, le potentiel de rerating nous semble plus limité. Sur la base de nos scénarios de guidances 2024, nos top picks sont Atlas Copco, Schneider Electric et Siemens (exposition Green Capex, potentiel de relèv...
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
KNEBV KONE OYJ CLASS B
ABB ABB LTD.
RXL REXEL SA
ALO ALSTOM SA
GEBN GEBERIT AG
SCHP SCHINDLER HOLDING AG PREF
DOKA DORMAKABA HOLDING AG
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
SKF B SKF AB CLASS B
TLGO TALGO SA
SIE SIEMENS AG
VOS VOSSLOH AG
CAF CONSTRUCCIONES Y AUXILIAR DE FERROCARRILES S.A.
KBX KNORR-BREMSE AG
SRAIL STADLER RAIL AG
ENR SIEMENS ENERGY AG
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB
- Mattias Holmberg
Assa Abloy (Buy, TP: SEK310.00) - Solid as a brick wall
We are roughly in line with consensus on Q4e after lowering our sales and EBIT by c2% based on FX. We do not expect the report to be a trigger for the share price per se but believe it will continue to underline Assa Abloy’s defensive characteristics and ability to perform well in a weak construction market. We reiterate our BUY but have reduced our target price to SEK310 (325) after cutting our 2024–2025e adj. EBIT by c6% due to FX.
- Mattias Holmberg
Decoding Alpha
Our analysis of underlying total shareholder return (TSR) drivers for Swedish Industrial companies reveals that high returns are not synonymous with high valuations. Investors tend to overpay for ‘growth’, while cash returns such as dividends and buybacks are typically deeply discounted. We believe Autoliv, Alfa Laval and Hexagon offer the most long-term TSR potential (13–14% annualised), with SKF and Trelleborg at the other end of the spectrum (8–9%), while also concluding that several stocks l...
- Ahmed Ben Salem
HEIA HEINEKEN NV
IPN IPSEN SA
WCH WACKER CHEMIE AG
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
CA CARREFOUR SA
BVI BUREAU VERITAS SA
ADP AEROPORTS DE PARIS SA
BN DANONE SA
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
KNEBV KONE OYJ CLASS B
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
ULVR UNILEVER PLC
DAI DAIMLER AG
SW SODEXO SA
GLE SOCIETE GENERALE S.A. CLASS A
RHM RHEINMETALL AG
REP REPSOL SA
FDR FLUIDRA S.A.
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
WLN WORLDLINE SA
SAN BANCO SANTANDER S.A.
BIM BIOMERIEUX SA
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
DWS DWS GROUP GMBH & CO. KGAA
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
HFG HELLOFRESH SE
8TRA TRATON SE
DSY DASSAULT SYSTEMES SA
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
- Ahmed Ben Salem
HEIA HEINEKEN NV
IPN IPSEN SA
WCH WACKER CHEMIE AG
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
CA CARREFOUR SA
BVI BUREAU VERITAS SA
ADP AEROPORTS DE PARIS SA
BN DANONE SA
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
KNEBV KONE OYJ CLASS B
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
ULVR UNILEVER PLC
DAI DAIMLER AG
SW SODEXO SA
GLE SOCIETE GENERALE S.A. CLASS A
RHM RHEINMETALL AG
REP REPSOL SA
FDR FLUIDRA S.A.
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
WLN WORLDLINE SA
SAN BANCO SANTANDER S.A.
BIM BIOMERIEUX SA
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
DWS DWS GROUP GMBH & CO. KGAA
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
HFG HELLOFRESH SE
8TRA TRATON SE
DSY DASSAULT SYSTEMES SA
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
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