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ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze

EPS estimates intact after mixed Q4

Lower sales offset by margins as operational measures take effect. EPS estimates largely intact due to lower opex and interest expenses. Full effect of op. improvements yet to be seen, but focus turns to M&A.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze

Expect a strong finish to '23

Expect strong Q4 sales after order intake surprise in Q3. Estimates unchanged, growth and margin expansion in '24e-'25e. Trading at 12-10x P/E, reiterate fair value range of SEK 35-45.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze

We raise estimates on continued improvements

Another strong quarter, order intake up 33%, EBITA margin 9.8%. Marks the fourth quarter in a row with profitability improvements. Long-term EBITA margin up to 8% (7%), fair value up to SEK 35-45.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze

Streak continues, Q3 very strong

Christian Berner Tech Trade Q3'23 results fast comment

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze

Expect a solid Q3

Q3e sales SEK 221m, up 11%, adj. EBITA margin 7.2% (8.7%). Growth to slow as book-to-bill normalises, profitability outlook good. Fair value SEK 30-40, trading at 12-11x P/E vs. peers at 23-11x.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze

Unleashing its potential

Decentralised, diversified B2B distribution and original product group. New management aims to boost profitability, promising signs in H1'23. '23e-'25e adj. P/E of 12-10x, fair value SEK 30-40.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze

Three for three

Another good quarter, 15% org. growth and 7.1% EBITA margin. Order intake still high, up 9% despite tough comps; outlook good. Share still trading below peers despite promising developments.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze

Continued cautious optimism

Q2e: sales SEK 245m, EBITA 6.8%, EPS SEK 0.57; expect order book realisation to continue, outlook promising; share trading 50-20% below peers, fair value SEK 30-40.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze

Further signs of progress

Q1: 31% organic sales growth and EBITA margin doubling. We raise estimates on further signs of profitability progress. Valuation still below peers despite margin prospects.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze

Still trading below peers

Q1e: SEK 190m sales, +4.7% y-o-y; 6.5m EBITA, 3.4% margin. Minor estimate changes; reiterate fair value range of SEK 30-40. Trading at 12-9x '23e-'25e P/E vs. peer median of 28-11x.

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