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ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Adrian Gilani
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Adrian Gilani

No quick fix for margin improvements

Underwhelming performance continues in Q4. EBITA down 7-3%, lower in both segments. Share trading at 15x '24e EV/EBITA.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Adrian Gilani
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Adrian Gilani

Back to earnings growth, still ground to cover

Q4e: first quarter since Q4'21 with positive y-o-y EBITA growth. Gradual margin improvement expected throughout '24e. Share trading at 15x '24e EV/EBITA, roughly in line with 5Y avg.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Adrian Gilani

Q3 a step back, improvement expected in Q4

A poor quarter, but Q4e should be better. Adj. EBITA down 4-5% for '23e-'25e. 14x '24e EV/EBITA, 19% '23e-'25e adj. EBITA CAGR.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Adrian Gilani
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Adrian Gilani
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Adrian Gilani
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Adrian Gilani
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Adrian Gilani

Marginal, yet underwhelming improvements

Less margin expansion than we hoped for in Q2. EBITA down 9-7% (-3% FX), mostly from Integrated. Comps getting significantly easier in H2e.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Adrian Gilani
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Adrian Gilani

The tide is starting to turn

Q1 report due on Wednesday, 3 May. We expect the earnings trend to turn positive in Q1e. 16-12x '23e-'24e EV/EBITA, fair value SEK 50-80/sh (45-85).

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