Cutting estimates amid soft guidance

Pre-announced Q4 revenues roughly in line, EBIT 6% below. We cut estimates on soft FY'24 guidance - costs to continue up. Extent of possible SDR synergies still a question mark.

Disappointing FY'24 guidance

Still many unknowns, but looks like a good deal

Q4e: 3.5% y-o-y revenue decline, 16.7% EBITDA margin. Updating estimates after close of SDR acquisition. '24e-'25e revenues +50-51%, EBIT +10-17%

Major acquisition in Sweden

Nice Q3 beat does not change our view

Solid 14% EBIT beat on slightly higher revenues and lower costs. Better visibility narrows FY'23 guidance, with EBIT mid-point up 3%. '23e EBIT lifted 3%, limited revisions beyond; FVR of DKK 60-98.

Limited Q3 impact from flat paper prices

Q3e: revenues down ~4% y-o-y, ~12% EBIT margin. Paper prices flat since June, but limited Q3 impact. Could delay demand recovery; 2% cut to '24e-'25e EBIT.

Finally some signs of improving demand

Q2 revenues 2% below ABGSCe, EBIT 9% below. Signs of improving paper demand positive, but not surprising. '23e-'25e EBIT cut by 1-2%, FVR of DKK 59-98.

Still waiting for paper demand to recover

Q2e: revenues down ~6% y-o-y, ~17% EBIT margin. Paper prices down >26%, but too early for demand recovery. '23e EPS up 19% on Q2 investment gain; FVR 59-98 (58-96).

Lower costs drive positive earnings surprise

North Media posted Q1 revenues of DKK 240.0m (+2% vs. ABGSCe at DKK 235.7m), equivalent to negative ~3% y-o-y growth.

Q1 likely too early for paper price effect

Lowering estimates further despite declining paper prices.