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ABGSC Food & Beverage Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Food & Beverage Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
MSON.B-SE MIDSONA

Margin recovery to continue

We cut '24e-'26e adj. EBITA by 8-4%. Should break seven-quarter negative org. decline streak. Trading at '24e EV/adj. EBITA of ~10x.

04/18/24 April 18, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Consumer Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Consumer Goods Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Fredrik Ivarsson
PREMIUM
BHG-SE BHG GROUP
BOOZT-SE BOOZT ... (+19)

Swedish sector top picks post Q4 reports

Soft org. growth but strong margin expansion among mid/large caps. E-commerce penetration back to growth. We highlight Axfood, H&M, Rugvista and RVRC as top picks.

BHG-SE BHG GROUP
BOOZT-SE BOOZT
LYKO.A-SE LYKO
RVRC-SE RVRC HOLDING
RUG-SE RUGVISTA GROUP
BMAX-SE BYGGMAX
EMBELL-SE EMBELLENCE GROUP
SVED.B-SE SVEDBERGS
ELUX.B-SE ELECTROLUX
HM.B-SE HENNES & MAURITZ
KESKOB-FI KESKO
AXFO-SE AXFOOD
HUSQ.B-SE HUSQVARNA
DOM-SE DOMETIC
MSON.B-SE MIDSONA
HUMBLE-SE HUMBLE GROUP
PNDORA-DK PANDORA
VIVA-SE VIVA WINE GROUP
THULE-SE THULE GROUP
03/08/24 March 8, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Food & Beverage Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Food & Beverage Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
03/06/24 March 6, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Food & Beverage Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Food & Beverage Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
MSON.B-SE MIDSONA

Another step in the right direction

We cut '24e-'25e EBITA by 9-6%. Margin recovery likely to be driven by better sales mix. Trading at '24e EV/EBITA of ~10x.

02/01/24 February 1, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Food & Beverage Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Food & Beverage Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
02/01/24 February 1, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Food & Beverage Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Food & Beverage Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
MSON.B-SE MIDSONA

Continuing the product portfolio revamp

We cut '23e-'25e adj. EBITA by 13-10%. Inflation data for Q4 suggest negative-to-neutral volume/mix. Trading at '24e EV/adj. EBITA of ~9x.

01/29/24 January 29, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Food & Beverage Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Food & Beverage Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
MSON.B-SE MIDSONA

Restructuring efforts starting to bear fruit

We raise '23e-'25e adj. EBITA by 9-2%. Expect further discontinuations. Trading at '23e-'24e EV/EBITA of ~14x-7x.

10/27/23 October 27, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Food & Beverage Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Food & Beverage Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
10/26/23 October 26, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Food & Beverage Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Food & Beverage Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
MSON.B-SE MIDSONA

Imperfect positioning

We cut '23e-'25e adj. EBITA by 14-5%. Negative price/mix from inflation data continues. Trading at '23e-'24e EV/EBITA of ~15x-7x.

10/16/23 October 16, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Food & Beverage Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Food & Beverage Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
MSON.B-SE MIDSONA

H2'23e: Discontinuations and price hikes

We cut '23e-'25e adj. EBITA by 27-4%. Discontinuation of unprofitable products in full swing. '24e EV/EBITA ~8x & lease adj. FCF of ~10%

07/20/23 July 20, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Food & Beverage Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Food & Beverage Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
07/20/23 July 20, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Food & Beverage Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Food & Beverage Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
MSON.B-SE MIDSONA

Q2e: Price tailwind but weaker volumes likely

We cut '23e-'25e adj. EBITA by 12-6%. Negative price/mix from inflation data continues. Trading at '23e-'24e EV/EBITA of ~10x-7x.

07/12/23 July 12, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Food & Beverage Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Food & Beverage Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
MSON.B-SE MIDSONA

A return to normalcy

We raise '23e-'25e EBITA by ~3%. Strong cash flow in Q1'23. Discussed discontinuation of unprofitable brands.

04/28/23 April 28, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Food & Beverage Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Food & Beverage Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
MSON.B-SE MIDSONA

Q1e: A first taste of price increases

Price increases in Q1'23 and a CPI-PPI gap turned negative make a supportive combination for Midsona's margins.

04/20/23 April 20, 2023 1 EN
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