Q1 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

Nel (Sell, TP: NOK1.50) - In hope they trust

Q1 revenue missed consensus by 29% and our estimate by 38%. Despite industry-wide challenges, Nel remains optimistic on new orders – although it last booked a sizeable order in late-2022. On the positive side, cash of NOK2.1bn provides investors with decent time optionality awaiting a better market (we do not expect a liquidity injection), added to which it has a good technology track record and know-how. We reiterate our SELL and NOK1.5 target price.

Full stop in Alkaline

Energy Morning - 30 April 2025

Nel: poor Q1 results

This morning, Nel has reported Q1 2025 revenue at NOK155m (-63% QoQ, -44% YoY), 37% below cons. at NOK245m. The quarter was impacted by temporary production halts, with a significant slowdown in the alkaline division negatively impacting (-69% YoY) the scale and the revenue mix. EBITDA loss stood a

Q1 weaker, no improvements in sight

SKF AB: 2 directors

Two Directors at SKF AB bought 915,300 shares at between 188.530SEK and 190.087SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last...

Volvo Cars (Hold, TP: SEK17.60) - I roll…into the kitchen sink

Volvo Cars pulled the plug on 2025 and 2026 guidance, as returning CEO Håkan Samuelsson cited a “very challenging” environment. Q1 sales, margins, and cash flow missed expectations, with tariffs, weaker demand, and price pressure forcing a pivot to cost-cutting and regionalisation, including a SEK18bn cost and cash savings programme. We have lowered our 2025–2027e adj. EBIT by c23% on average and our target price to SEK17.6 (18.0). We reiterate our HOLD.

Nel (Sell, TP: NOK1.50) - No signs of life on the horizon

With no meaningful orders secured since late 2022, weak backlog coverage for 2025e, production facility shut-ins, an uncertain market outlook, and further uncertainties related to its US expansion plans, challenging times are set to remain. While we are in line with consensus ahead of the Q1 report, our 2025e revenues and EBTIDA are 30% and 52% below consensus, respectively, with weak backlog coverage even on our estimates. Focus ahead should be on maintaining the liquidity runway and any equity...

SKF (Buy, TP: SEK240.00) - Perception change potential

Q1 adj. EBIT was 3% stronger than we and consensus expected (driven by impressive margin resilience), while the outlook and organic growth seem to be tracking in line with our estimates. SKF’s pricing efforts look set to offset negative tariff implications, and its margin strength is undeniable. We have raised our 2025–2027e adj. EBIT by c4% on average, and our target price to SEK240 (225); we reiterate our BUY.

Admirable work, but market slide extending

Good cost control, EBIT 3% better

Limited revisions post Q1

Q1 results at first glance

SKF (Buy, TP: SEK225.00) - Resetting expectations

We estimate Q1 sales of SEK24,167m, organic growth of -1.5% YOY and adj. EBIT of SEK3,143m (c1% above consensus). We expect Q2 guidance of “weaker” organic sales (YOY), and have cut our 2025–2027e adj. EBIT by c15% on average having updated FX and factored in the macro backdrop, which has clearly deteriorated since our previous update in light of the US tariff debacle. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to SEK225 (270) on updated (contracting) peer valuations and our lowered ...

Heads-up for report 25 April

Assessing the balance sheet risk

In a tough spot

The Capital Goods Data Miner - April 2025

Sweden: the land of opportunity?