NCC AB: 5 directors

Two Directors at NCC AB bought 2,178 shares at 190.874SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 58/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showin...

Skanska (Buy, TP: SEK255.00) - Volatile miss in Q1

Q1 EBIT missed, as the Residential and Commercial Development divisions had weaker-than-expected results. We have reduced our recovery expectations for these segments due to continued softness in Nordic housing sales and a slow recovery in US commercial property development. However, we still see upside potential in our SOTP-based valuation and reiterate our BUY. Nevertheless, based on our lowered forecasts, we have reduced our target price to SEK255 (270).

Still in a solid position

Solid Construction results

Ready to grow through M&A

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK210.00) - Slightly larger seasonal losses

The divisional figures were broadly in line, and as usual, Q1 was a seasonal loss due to winter effects in NCC Industry (asphalt operations). EBIT was SEK-170m (14% below our estimate, 10% below Infront consensus). However, given the low season, the Q1 miss had a limited effect – a c1% hit to full-year EPS. We reiterate our BUY and highlight our view that ongoing sold and initiated property developments are likely to drive positive EPS momentum to 2028, but have cut our target price to SEK210 (2...

Undramatic quarter

Limited revisions post Q1

Estimates down on delayed margin recovery

Jm Ab (Buy, TP: SEK170.00) - Passing the trough

Q1 EBIT was 4% below our estimate and Infront consensus, while EPS fell well short in percentage terms due to a low nominal figure. KPIs did not recover as much as we expected, although JM reiterated its target to increase housing starts to 3,800 units p.a., citing macroeconomic conditions as a key factor. Given the current market outlook, we believe the company has passed the trough on EPS, as we expect starts and sales to recover in late 2025 and 2026. We reiterate our BUY and target price of ...

Q1 results at first glance

Margins continue to surprise negatively

Another cash flow-intensive year

Growing earnings in 2025

Assessing the balance sheet risk

Good value

Mixed upside potential, despite market recovery expectations

Pent-up demand and falling interest rates remain the backbone for newbuild recovery expectations. However, as the recovery has not yet started, property developers screen as the most attractive long-term, but visibility remains mixed. Diversified construction companies are more attractive on near-term P/Es, although many seem to be fully valued on solid share-price performance over the past six months. We maintain a neutral sector view; NCC and Skanska are our top picks.

Jm Ab (Buy, TP: SEK170.00) - BUY on the dip

JM’s share price has been volatile over the past three years, trading in waves on recovery expectations. As the Swedish residential market has yet to recover, expectations have recently fallen further, and the stock has reached old lows. However, we expect a market recovery in late-2025 and 2026, and we believe this has created an attractive entry point. KPIs (unit sales and unit starts) are our Q1 focus point, as profits are still affected by cycle lows and a trailing profit recognition. We hav...

Skanska (Buy, TP: SEK270.00) - Q1e risk, but SOTP upside potential

With only a minor SEK110m divestment in ‘Central’ in the quarter, we see downside risk to consensus for Q1. However, supported by a solid balance sheet and investments in Commercial Development (CD), Investment Properties (IP) and Residential Development (RD), we see solid upside potential from an SOTP perspective, and believe capital releases remain Skanska’s main potential share price catalyst. Due to FX, we have lowered our 2025–2027e EPS by c2% on average, and our target price to SEK270 (280...

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK220.00) - Target price raised on project gains

Having started and sold another commercial development, with an expected 2027 delivery, we have raised our 2027e EPS by c8%. Given NCC’s project development planned for 2027–2028e, we believe the stock offers an attractive EPS growth profile. However, similar to peers, Q1 is likely to be a loss-making quarter due to Nordic winter effects. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK220 (200).