We forecast Q1 sales of SEK5,863m, with c-12% organic growth YOY and adj. EBITA of SEK590m, c10% below consensus. We have reduced our 2025–2027e adj. EBIT by c11% on average, due to updated FX and lowered underlying estimates. As a result, we have reduced our target price to SEK60 (70) but reiterate our BUY, given the positive risk/reward.
Our recent field trip to India (visiting Volvo, Epiroc, Trelleborg, Autoliv and others) alongside our analysis suggests the country is set to take centre stage as a global manufacturing hub over the coming decade, shifting from being the sixth- to the third-largest end-market for the Swedish Industrial sector. India’s strong economic growth trajectory and favourable demographics mean the companies: 1) see double-digit growth as sustainable; 2) are pursuing manufacturing capacity expansions; and ...
Overall, Q4 was stronger than expected, even after adjusting EBITA for a SEK63m refund. On the conference call, CEO Juan Vargues expressed caution about H1 demand, which we see as fair given market uncertainty. We have raised our 2025–2026e adj. EBITA by c1%, and reiterate our BUY and SEK70 target price. We continue to see a positive risk/reward.
We forecast Q4 sales of SEK4,574m, with c-15% organic growth YOY and adj. EBITA of SEK267m, c3% below consensus. We have reduced our 2025–2026e adj. EBIT by c3% on average, due to updated FX (positive effect) and lowered underlying estimates. As a result, we have reduced our target price to SEK70 (75), but reiterate our BUY, given the low valuation and mid-2025e market improvement.
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