Far-sighted is better than myopic

Q2 miss

A step forward on margins

Tight cost control saves the day

Earnings growth to accelerate in H2'25e

Embla adds a new limb, taps into value O&P

Q2 in line with cons. but with a soft mix

Market leader at a supportive valuation

Built to last, but fully priced fast

May: Pulp shipments -1.7% y-o-y

More value than momentum, except for wood

Q2 preview

Apr: Pulp shipments +2% y-o-y

Large forest deal at EV/EBITDA 36-60x

Mar: Pulp shipments +7% y-o-y

Embla Medical (Buy, TP: DKK35.50) - Better start to the year than expe...

The c4% organic growth in Q1 was better than feared (consensus c3%), and with growth momentum likely to pick up in the coming quarters, we expect the company to reach c6% (previously c5%) in 2025. It kept its 2025 EBITDA margin guidance despite steep tariff exposure, citing high uncertainty and mitigation efforts. We reiterate our BUY with a raised target price of DKK35.5 (34).

De-risking Q1 supports long-term story

UPM (Buy, TP: EUR36.00) - Solid entry points into quality

Following the solid Q1 report that was supported by the low-cost pulp operations in Uruguay, we have kept our optimistic 2025–2027e earnings, translating into highly attractive valuation multiples largely unchanged. With heavily reduced capex set for the coming years, we also still forecast strong cash flows, leaving the balance sheet overcapitalised. With this backdrop, we believe UPM will continue to pursue buybacks on top of compelling dividends in most feasible scenarios. We reiterate our BU...

Better realised pulp prices in Q1

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK293.00) - Firing on all cylinders

Both Q1 revenues and PTP were record-high (both up 11% YOY), powered by strong brokerage income and resilient NII despite falling rates. Activity looks elevated going into Q2, and we see upside potential to NII consensus estimates. The total return profile remains attractive on our expectation of c10% long-term EPS growth and a c5% total yield. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK293 (274).