September: Pulp shipments -10% y-o-y

UPM (Buy, TP: EUR42.00) - Earnings growth and buybacks

Since UPM had pre-released Q3 EBIT and provided new Q4 guidance, the Q3 report included no real surprises. Still, we are encouraged by UPM’s focus on continuously reducing fixed costs. Based on improved volumes in combination with better prices for pulp and biofuels, we are confident UPM will show impressive earnings growth. Based on reduced 2025–2027e capex, we also expect strong free cash flow, leaving the balance sheet overcapitalised, and paving the way for buybacks on top of compelling divi...

Pulp is down and Wood is up

Q3 in-line with PW

Stora acquires a Finnish sawmill company

Fairly valued given short-term growth outlook

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK255.00) - Several rate-cut mitigants in 2025e

We see plenty of growth drivers to mitigate the EPS drop in 2025e (given the likely rate cut headwinds), and restore Nordnet to >10% EPS growth in 2026e, including: the near-term launch of Livrente in Denmark, macro tailwinds for household savers, widening credit margins in loans and liquidity portfolios, and share buybacks. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 1–2% and our target price to SEK255 (252), and reiterate our BUY.

Q3 in line with expectations

Q3 underpins positive momentum into 2025

Embla Medical (Buy, TP: DKK39.00) - Momentum remains strong

Q3 organic revenue growth of c7% YOY was largely in line with expectations and at the high end of the long-term guidance of 5–7% despite end-market headwinds. We believe growth could strengthen further in 2025 and beyond, helped by the recent US Medicare expanded coverage. The Q3 report also showed the EBITDA margin continuing to improve faster than we expected. We reiterate our BUY and DKK39 target price.

Q3 hits the right spots

UPM (Buy, TP: EUR42.00) - Still fit for growth and buybacks

Although we were surprised and disappointed by UPM’s 2024 profit warning, we remain confident that it will report strong earnings growth for 2025–2026. With incrementally higher profits from the new business in Uruguay and low 2025–2026e capex, we also expect strong free cash flow, leaving the balance sheet overcapitalised with 2025–2026e NIBD/EBITDA of 0.5–0.1x, paving the way for much-increased, value-accretive shareholder cash allocations. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to...

PW and Q3: Wood is up, pulp is down

All eyes on US in Q3

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK252.00) - Starting the shift away from NII

Q3 looks set to mark the start of a 4-quarter trend of falling NII. Nevertheless, our long-term structural growth case is intact and we expect rising commissions to have compensated for most of the NII decline by 2026e. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to SEK252 (256), having reduced our 2025–2026e PTP by c4%, mainly on lower NII.

Valuation lofty while growth decelerates

Terminating coverage

FDJ completes the acquisition

Wood is up and Pulp is down

Q3 preview