Apr: Pulp shipments +2% y-o-y

Large forest deal at EV/EBITDA 36-60x

Mar: Pulp shipments +7% y-o-y

Embla Medical (Buy, TP: DKK35.50) - Better start to the year than expe...

The c4% organic growth in Q1 was better than feared (consensus c3%), and with growth momentum likely to pick up in the coming quarters, we expect the company to reach c6% (previously c5%) in 2025. It kept its 2025 EBITDA margin guidance despite steep tariff exposure, citing high uncertainty and mitigation efforts. We reiterate our BUY with a raised target price of DKK35.5 (34).

De-risking Q1 supports long-term story

UPM (Buy, TP: EUR36.00) - Solid entry points into quality

Following the solid Q1 report that was supported by the low-cost pulp operations in Uruguay, we have kept our optimistic 2025–2027e earnings, translating into highly attractive valuation multiples largely unchanged. With heavily reduced capex set for the coming years, we also still forecast strong cash flows, leaving the balance sheet overcapitalised. With this backdrop, we believe UPM will continue to pursue buybacks on top of compelling dividends in most feasible scenarios. We reiterate our BU...

Better realised pulp prices in Q1

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK293.00) - Firing on all cylinders

Both Q1 revenues and PTP were record-high (both up 11% YOY), powered by strong brokerage income and resilient NII despite falling rates. Activity looks elevated going into Q2, and we see upside potential to NII consensus estimates. The total return profile remains attractive on our expectation of c10% long-term EPS growth and a c5% total yield. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK293 (274).

A prospering market leader

Q1 EBIT +9%

Q1 beat driven by strong transaction income

Embla Medical (Buy, TP: DKK34.00) - All eyes on tariffs

We expect a slower start to the year than previously, but a likely decent Q1 EBITDA margin, helped by last year’s cost cutting and product mix. We expect the focus to be on potential tariff effects, where we estimate a 10–15% hit on EPS mainly related to Bracing & Support (B&S) produced in China and sold to the US. We reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target price to DKK34 (39).

It's a marathon, not a sprint

Terminating coverage

Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK274.00) - High on market turbulence

Nordnet looks on track to post its highest profit ever in Q1e, with ongoing market volatility driving the highest trading activity since the pandemic. We continue to see attractive upside potential at a 2025–2026e P/E of c20x, given our expectation of >10% EPS growth from 2026. We have cut our 2026–2027e EPS by c4% on lower stock market values, and our target price to SEK274 (286), but reiterate our BUY.

Thriving in the current environment

Two negatives and one positive

Challenging road ahead

UPM (Buy, TP: EUR36.00) - Separating the wheat from the chaff

While acknowledging the overall high macro uncertainty, we still expect UPM to show continued earnings growth in 2025, in contrast to many other cyclical companies. Due to a more cautious view on pulp prices and FX, we have cut our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 12–8%. Still, our earnings scenario remains highly attractive. We have also lowered our 2026–2027e capex as we believe the company will push growth investments into the future and instead prioritise share buybacks. We reiterate our BUY, but have c...

March web-activity insights

Web-activity data from March indicates roughly flat trading activity MOM for Avanza and Nordnet, and one of the most active months in three years despite negative seasonality. For Q1e, we see c20% upside potential on Avanza’s trading-related commissions, c15% on Nordnet’s. The platforms are due to release their March statistics on 3 April.