Scatec (Buy, TP: NOK95.00) - Progressing as planned

We consider Scatec’s Q1 report a solid status report, showing that the equity story is evolving as planned with: 1) asset sales reducing net debt on a corporate level; and 2) significant scale on growth through 2027e, with ~NOK16bn in remaining EPC revenues to be recognised from projects under construction and in the company’s backlog. The stock is trading at around our core NAV, suggesting that investors are currently getting unannounced growth at no cost. We reiterate our BUY and have raised o...

Energy Morning - 25 April 2025

Energy Morning - 24 April 2025

Oil at USD 75-80 needed to sustain dividends

Benelux Morning Notes

AkzoNobel: 3% beat on 1Q25 Adj. EBITDA, FY25 guidance maintained at +€1.55bn. BE Semiconductor Industries: 1Q25 results - extending the downcycle. Corbion: Apogee. Just Eat Takeaway.com: 1Q25 Trading Update - no impact on the bid. Kinepolis: 1Q25 preview. KPN: 1Q25 preview. Randstad: Strong 9% high quality beat on 1Q25, 2Q25 outlook looks a touch below. Vår Energi: Fine start of the year, more to come. Vopak: Reasonable start, cashflow developing nicely.

Q1 a marginal miss, but no other negative surprises

Energy Morning - 22 April 2025

Scatec (Buy, TP: NOK92.00) - Benefiting from scale in growth

We forecast Q1 proportionate EBITDA 17% above consensus, which we believe likely does not fully reflect announced divestment gains. We see the company benefiting from scale in growth in the coming years and have raised our 2025–2026e proportionate EBITDA by 9% on a higher D&C contribution. With Scatec trading at a discount to underlying values, and delivering on growth and its divestment programme, we find it offers a solid investment case. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price t...

Benelux Morning Notes

Greenyard: Press reports on possible delisting. Vår Energi: Slow production start

Q1 trading update slightly on the weak side

Crude Quarterly Q1'25: weaker oil market fundamentals

Estimate changes from Crude Quarterly, 3 April

Trading opportunity: positive newsflow soon

Benelux Morning Notes

ABN AMRO: Strong results ex one-off, capital, cautious outlook. Ahold Delhaize: FY25F outlook calls for consensus downgrade. DEME Group: Preview - FCF machine. Heineken: Nothing missing. Kinepolis: Canadian peer Cineplex 4Q24 results and Jan 2025 box office revenue. Montea: Good results, guidance reiterated, focus on 2025 investments. Randstad: 4Q24 results beat 3% but key drivers miss, 1Q25 outlook disappoints. Var Energi: Raising outlook and dividend

Balder X on track - a major relief

Soft Q4, but Balder X relief

Scatec (Buy, TP: NOK90.00) - Few surprises in Q4

With the Q4 results largely in line with expectations and the mid-point of the 2025 EBITDA guidance 4% below consensus likely due to assumptions about the timing of asset sales and proceeds, we consider Scatec’s Q4 report neutral. We have made limited estimate revisions following the results; we reiterate BUY and have raised our target price to NOK90 (86) based on a higher contribution from ancillary services in the Philippines.

Balder X will be the Q4 focus

Benelux Morning Notes

NSI: Positive news on fiscality, market and valuations. Var Energi: Production at the lower end of expectations. Events Calendar

Balance sheet issue?