EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • CD Projekt: 13% beat vs. our 4Q23 EBITDA forecast, on stronger revenues (CP77 IP) POSITIVE • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: mixed 4Q23 results NEUTRAL • Cimsa: 2023 financial results review • Tauron: reports 4Q23 EBITDA of PLN 674m , 44% lower qoq, but 83% higher yoy NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Romanian energy: government adopts emergency ordinance, with amended regulations for the energy sector NEUTRAL • Bank of Georgia: receives app...
HEADLINES: • InPost: 4Q23 strong, as expected; neutral FY24E guidance; volume acceleration in 1Q24 NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: 4Q23 review – net profit up 10% yoy, in line with preliminaries; strong 2024 backlog recorded POSITIVE • Echo Investment: 4Q23 – residential good, offices bad NEUTRAL • Athens Exchange Group: 4Q23 results NEUTRAL • LPP: key takeaways from the conference call on the exit from Russia, 2.0 POSITIVE • Kruk: 2023 net profit DPS proposal of PLN 18, in line with our expectations N...
HEADLINES: • Pegasus Airlines: 4Q23 – decent end to another very good year NEUTRAL • Ford Otosan: strong set of results in 4Q23 POSITIVE • ONE United Properties: FY23 – ramping up, with almost 1k units sold in 2023 • Alkaloid: 4Q23 – reaping the benefits of recent investments • Alkaloid: rating and price target changes • European oil and gas monthly: February 2024 – return of the crack • Transgaz: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call POSITIVE • Auto Partner: February sales growth accelerates...
HEADLINES: • OMV: Chemical Brothers (stays BUY) • Pegasus Airlines: 4Q23 – decent end to another stellar year NEUTRAL • Tupras: FY23 results, using inflation accounting POSITIVE • AROBS Transilvania Software: FY23 results – awaiting the calming of IT spending headwinds NEUTRAL • Sipchem: 4Q23 interim results NEGATIVE • Telecom Egypt: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Tofas: proposes distribution of a DPS of TRY 20 NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: strong player reviews of The Thaumatur...
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
HEADLINES • Erste Bank: 4Q23 results • AmRest: 4Q23 EBITDA in line, but earnings affected by EUR 29m goodwill write-down for Sushi Shop NEGATIVE • Text: 3Q23-24 (calendar 4Q23) results – EBITDA down 4% yoy, 10% above the consensus POSITIVE • Electrica: 4Q23 results in line with expectations NEGATIVE • Purcari Wineries: 4Q23 results and 2024E outlook in line with expectations POSITIVE • Aquila Part Prod Com: earnings beat, on lower credit losses, interest income and tax rate POSITIVE • Nuclearel...
EME Equity Market – January 2024 Market performance – Turkey off to the races in January. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in the first month of the year. There was a V-shape recovery in the Turkish ISE30, with the index adding 12.6% mom in EUR terms. The Greek ASE and Hungarian BUX indices also reported strong performances, adding 5.7% and 5.3% mom, respectively, in EUR terms. The Czech PX Index advanced by 2.2% mom, while the Romanian BET 0.9% mom in EUR...
HEADLINES: • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: exclusivity in a growing market (stays BUY) • Santander Bank Polska: publishes neutral 4Q23 results, supporting continuation of high ROEs, in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Raiffeisen Bank International: posts preliminary 4Q23 results, guides for 2023 EUR 1.25 DPS and shares initial 2024E guidance NEUTRAL • Romgaz: preliminary figures in line with estimates, conservative 2024E budget NEUTRAL • ADNOC Distribution: full-year 2023 operational results...
We maintain our BUY on Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising (Al Arabia), with an updated 12M price target (PT) of SAR 304, which offers 18% upside. Since our previous update, in July 2023, the company’s share price has performed strongly, driven by winning a number of lucrative contracts, such as Riyadh and King Khalid International Airport. The Riyadh project is the major long-term revenue driver, in our view, which should also strengthen the company’s competitive position significantly locally. Al Ar...
HEADLINES: • Orange Polska: safe dividend haven (stays BUY) • Logo Yazilim: recent newsflow supportive of our investment case • Magyar Telekom: to implement annual inflation-based fee adjustment as of 1 March 2024 POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: Municipal Appeals Board suspends execution of recent decision regarding increased fees NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: Frostpunk 2 gameplay trailer released; game to be available on PC Game Pass NEUTRAL • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: announces new contract in Dubai P...
HEADLINES: • Kruk: 4Q23 trading update – rather neutral NEUTRAL • OMV: 4Q23 trading statement NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: 4Q23 trading statement NEUTRAL • CEZ: committee postpones debate on Lex CEZ 2.0 once again NEUTRAL • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: Faden Media awarded two projects in Riyadh City POSITIVE
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Kruk: 3Q23 - books another strong quarter • PKO BP: solid 3Q23, announces another attempt to pay 2022 DPS, books 25%+ headline ROE • CEZ: 3Q23 a solid beat; adjusted net profit guidance unchanged, at CZK 33-37bn POSITIVE • InPost: 3Q23 beat on stronger international operations; breakeven in UK; strong start to 4Q POSITIVE • Pegasus Airlines: 3Q23 - another strong summer, guidance maintained NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: 3Q23 results review - soft numbers, in line with expectations NEU...
HEADLINES: • Logo Yazilim: clearer skies in 2024E (stays BUY) • Turkish Airlines: 3Q23 - even better summer than last year POSITIVE • Brisa: solid 3Q23 results, on gross margin expansion and low CIT NEUTRAL • Migros: strong beat in the 3Q23 financials POSITIVE • ING BSK: posts solid 3Q23 results, but largely in line with its peers NEUTRAL • Verbund: 3Q23 results above our estimates • Alkaloid: 3Q revenues growth normalises, 4Q shaping up nicely NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: US - Fed stays on h...
EME Equity Market – October 2023 Market performance – election results prompt stellar market reaction in Poland; sell-off in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.0% mom in USD in October. Poland staged a massive rebound, post the elections, with the WIG20 advancing 16.4% mom in EUR terms. Apart from Turkey, where October was a sell-off, with the ISE30 declining 13.7% mom in EUR terms, there were relatively muted performances everywhere else (BUX +2.1% / PX +0.4% / B...
HEADLINES: • Aselsan: 3Q23 results - backlog hits historical peak of USD 11bn, execution on track POSITIVE • Coca-Cola Icecek: strong beat in 3Q23 financials POSITIVE • Logo Yazilim: 3Q23 results - in line NEUTRAL • Siauliu Bankas: 3Q23 results highlights • OMV Petrom: takeaways from the 3Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Czech Republic macro: GDP disappoints in 3Q • OMV: joint venture to build Europe's largest plastics sorting facility • Jahez: announces lapse of period to fulfil the SPA condition...
HEADLINES: • Alior Bank: strong beat on headline profit as LLPs keep giving low readings POSITIVE • MONETA Money Bank: strong 3Q23 results, but medium-term outlook broadly unchanged NEUTRAL • Tupras: 3Q23 results - EBITDA better than expected • Ford Otosan: strong beat in 3Q23 financials POSITIVE • Tofas: better-than-expected results in 3Q23 POSITIVE • Shoper: 3Q23 adjusted EBITDA up 32% yoy, as expected NEUTRAL • Romgaz: 3Q23 trading update • Electrica: 3Q23 operational indicators NEUTRAL • M...
EME Equity Market – September 2023 Market performance – positive developments in Romania and Turkey, declines everywhere else. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 3.7% mom in EUR terms and 6.0% mom in USD in September. Romania took the spotlight, with the BET Index advancing 7.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Turkish ISE30 (+4.6% mom). The Polish WIG20 declined the most (-8.7% mom), followed by the Greek ASE, the Hungarian BUX and, finally, the Czech PX (-7.9%, -1.9% and -0.6% mom, respectively).
HEADLINES: • Nuclearelectrica: status quo fairly priced (downgraded to HOLD) • Duna House: doubles down on Italy via long-term cooperation agreement with large real estate broker POSITIVE • Fondul Proprietatea: Franklin Templeton reappointed for one year NEUTRAL • CD Projekt: Phantom Liberty released today, very positive reviews so far POSITIVE • Jeronimo Martins: Ara should reach 20% share in sales in 10 years NEGATIVE • Polish banks: VeloBank - bids approaching final stages • Al Arabia Outdo...
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