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ABGSC Consumer Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Consumer Goods Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Fredrik Ivarsson

Swedish sector top picks post Q4 reports

Soft org. growth but strong margin expansion among mid/large caps. E-commerce penetration back to growth. We highlight Axfood, H&M, Rugvista and RVRC as top picks.

ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski

Capacity increases to pay off in H2'24

Marginal estimate changes. Gross margin improvements still on the horizon. '24e-'25e lease adj. FCFE yield excl. earn-outs of 8-10%.

ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski

Temporary headwinds ahead

'23e-'25e EBITA down 8-3%. Gross margin recovery hampered by Red Sea tensions. '24e-'25e lease adj. FCFE yield excl. earn-outs of 4-9%.

ABGSC Strategy Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Strategy Research
  • Karl Bokvist

Earn-outs: In the end, cash trumps EPS

Earn-outs: 0.6x of ND/EBITDA, and 25% of FCF, limited EPS impact (1-2%), but notable company deviations, FCF and debt impact more important than the earnings fluctuations.

ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski

Less M&A, more cash flow ahead

Minor estimate changes. Gross margin improvements still on the horizon. '24e lease adj. FCFE yield excl. earn-out payments of 9%.

ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski

More than just bamboo toothbrushes

Minor estimate changes. Expect an array of one-offs related to refinancing. '24e lease adj. FCFE yield excl. earn-out payments of ~11%.

ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski

H2'23e: all eyes on margins and price increases

We raise '23e-'25e EBITA by 1%. Cash flow beat: three for three. '24e-'25e lease adj. FCF yields at ~4-11%.

ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski

Strong growth with some margin compression

We cut '23e-'25e EBITA by 11-3%. Equity issue eases leverage. '24e FCF yield of 5.1%.

ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski

A sweet start to the year

We raise '23e-'25e EBITA by 2%. Cash flow generation is evident. '23e EV/EBITA at ~8x.

ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski

Macro beginning to look more appetising

We cut '23e-'25e EBITA by 12-8%. Some macro factors starting to ease. '23e EV/EBITA at 7.4x.

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