End of acceptance period approaching

Q3: EBITDA in-line, guidance trimmed

Energy Morning - 30 October 2024

Energy Morning - 25 October 2024

All share offer likely to be accepted

Q3 production much as expected. All share offer likely to be accepted. P/NAV of 1.00x discounts Brent to ~USD 82/bbl.

All share offer at SEK 58.7/sh

Roc Oil Company bids SEK 58.7/sh for Tethys Oil. Offer in-line with ABGSC valuation, independent committee recommends the offer. Bid likely to be accepted.

Small estimate changes despite lower guidance

Q2 EBITDA 8% above on lower costs. Reduced guidance, yet only small changes to estimates. Reiterate fair value range of SEK 30-55/sh.

Q2: EBITDA 8% above, lowers guidance

Moving ahead on block 56

Q2 production slightly below. Focus in Q2: Exploration, FDP on Block 56 & strategic review. P/NAV of 0.59x, discounts Brent of USD 67/bbl.

Estimates slightly down after Q1

Q1 EBITDA of USD 13.0m, slightly below ABGSCe. Small downwards revisions to estimates after Q1. P/NAV of 0.60x and discounts Brent of USD 69/bbl.

Q1: EBITDA USD 13m, vs ABGSCe of USD 15m

Estimates up on higher oil price assumptions

Increased estimates on higher oil price assumptions. Exciting exploration activities ahead. P/NAV of 0.57x discounts Brent to USD 65/bbl.

Estimates down on lower production

Q4 EBITDA of USD 21.5m, in line with ABGSCe. Estimates down on lower production assumptions. Fair value range revised to SEK 30-55 (40-75).

Q4 numbers in line - Initiates strategic review

Q4 production in line with expectations

Q4 trading update in line. '24e slightly down on lower oil price and production. P/NAV of 0.52x, discounts Brent to USD 55/bbl.

Valuation lowered on soft production

Q3 EBITDA of USD 16.4m, in line with ABGSCe. But soft production lowers estimates. Fair value range revised to SEK 40-75 (45-85).

Q3 numbers in line

First revenue contribution from Al Jumd

Q3'23 report due on Tuesday 7 November. First revenue contribution from Al Jumd in Q3e. P/NAV of 0.65x, discounts Brent of USD 60/bbl.

Soft production guidance lowers estimates

Q2 EBITDA 16% below ABGSCe on higher costs. FY'23 production guidance lowered by ~5%. Fair value range revised to SEK 40-80 (50-90).

Q2 EBITDA below on higher costs and reduced production guidance