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ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Aedifica: First sign of portfolio valuation stabilization. ArcelorMittal: Solid 1Q24 EBITDA beat, softer FCF reflects WC and CAPEX phasing. Belgian telcos: Peer Telenet 1Q24 results, still weak commercial performance. dsm-firmenich AG: Vita-still not-min. IBA: Contract to install a P1 system in Connecticut. KPN: VodafoneZiggo 1Q24 results confirm fixed losses, mobile weaker QoQ. Shell plc: Good start to the year

Guy Sips ... (+8)
  • Guy Sips
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi
Stefano Toffano
  • Stefano Toffano

DSM-Firmenich : Slowly returning to growth

>No major surprises - DSM-Firmenich posted a relatively weak but in line quarter, with no major surprises on the group level compared to previous communication. The challenging destocking and pricing environment in mainly ANH’s and HNC’s end-markets fed into 2024, resulting in Q1 24 pro-forma revenues and adj. EBITDA of c. € 3,071m (-2% yoy) and € 463m (-11% yoy) respectively, the latter roughly reflecting ccs and AAOB estimates. In line with previous communication, D...

Wim Hoste
  • Wim Hoste

DSM-Firmenich FIRST LOOK :1Q adj EBITDA -11%, FY guidance maintained

1Q adj EBITDA decreased by 11% which was close to our and consensus forecasts. Dsm-firmenich expects to see higher vitamin prices as from 2Q and reiterated FY guidance of at least € 1.9bn adjusted EBITDA, with our and consensus forecasts close to € 2bn. The carve out of Animal Nutrition & Health has started and based on a gradual improvement of market conditions as well as earnings support from the € 200m vitamin restructuring program, we believe proceeds of € 3.0-3.5bn for ANH to be possible, w...

Fernand de Boer
  • Fernand de Boer

DSM Firmenich - Results in line with CSS, but better quality

Q1-24 sales and EBITDA were in line with CSS and exceeding our estimate. However, the return of volume growth and nice beat in high valued segments Perfumery & Beauty and Taste Texture & Beyond should be positively received. We reiterate our Buy rating and lift our TP from EUR 120 to EUR 129.

Charlotte Vaisse ... (+5)
  • Charlotte Vaisse
  • Emmanuel Matot
  • Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
  • Konrad Zomer
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/25/2024

Having flirted with the 495-point mark on Friday, which could have triggered an extension of the correction, the market has rebounded well since then. Our technical analysis highlights a configuration in which we are only at the start of a powerful rally. Target of 622 points for Stoxx 600 index (+11%) by the end of the year confirmed. Prefer banks to insurance companies in the short term. - ...

Charlotte Vaisse ... (+5)
  • Charlotte Vaisse
  • Emmanuel Matot
  • Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
  • Konrad Zomer
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 25/04/2024

Après avoir frôlé vendredi la barre des 495 points qui aurait pu déclencher la poursuite de la correction, le marché a ensuite bien rebondi. Notre analyse technique met en lumière une configuration où nous ne serions qu’au début d’un rallye puissant. Objectif 622 points (+11%) d’ici à la fin de l’année confirmé sur le Stoxx 600. Préférer les banques aux assurances à court terme. - ...

Stefano Toffano
  • Stefano Toffano

DSM-Firmenich : Q1 24 preview (2 May)

>We roughly expect more of the same - While reiterating that it is seeing signs of market stabilisation, DSM-Firmenich has maintained a cautious stance in its market communication in Q1 24 and is not (yet) assuming much regarding a potential inflection in trading conditions. The challenging destocking and pricing environment in mainly ANH and HNC end-markets persists, and we do not expect significant improvements in Q1 24. We estimate € 3,150bn revenues and € 469m adj...

Michael B. Schäfer
  • Michael B. Schäfer

ODDO : Glass half full – Volume recovery started after almost 2 years ...

As Spring approaches, we see industry-wide destocking coming to an end, emerging recovery trends in China gaining momentum and European spot energy cost relief rolling in, all helping to restore plant utilisation and earnings. We add more cyclicality to our preferred names, upgrading BASF to Outperform (Neutral). Momentum being regained in specialties chemicals distribution triggers our upgrade of IMCD to Outperform (Neutral). ‘From record to record’ remains our mantra at FUCHS. ...

Guy Sips ... (+6)
  • Guy Sips
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi
Guy Sips ... (+6)
  • Guy Sips
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi
Wim Hoste
  • Wim Hoste

DSM-Firmenich ANH separation to sharpen focus

Investors reacted positively to the announced separation of the Animal Nutrition & Health (ANH) business. We also believe a divestment makes sense, as it will reduce earnings volatility and sharpen the company's activity profile. Based upon savings capture and some improvement of market conditions, we deem a potential valuation of € 3.0-3.5bn for ANH to be possible, which would give the remaining dsm-firmenich group again a net cash position it might use for further portfolio building within its...

Stefano Toffano
  • Stefano Toffano

DSM-Firmenich : Towards higher quality

>A strong pivot - Overall, DSM-Firmenich delivered -22% yoy adj. EBITDA growth in FY23 driven by a -22% vitamin impact and -4% from FX headwinds. Excluding these, the adj. EBITDA would have been roughly in line with last year, despite the currency headwinds. This is an important base into FY24, highlighting the relatively conservative character of the guidance (more below). The big news was of course the carve-out the ANH division planned in 2025. Much is yet uncertai...

Konrad Zomer
  • Konrad Zomer

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 02/15/2024

GALP, TotalEnergies and Shell have discovered vast oil deposits off the coast of Namibia. Oil services companies see this as a new Eldorado. FPSO-type solutions seem to be favoured, making SBM Offshore a key player, not forgetting subsea companies such as TechnipFMC. The whole sector could help local economic development... and/or have major negative impacts on local communities, biodiversity or the fight against corruption. Not to mention the carbon lock-in. We would therefore urge i...

Wim Hoste
  • Wim Hoste

DSM-Firmenich Feedback conference call

Below are the highlights of the conference call. 4Q adj. EBITDA was roughly in line with our forecast and 1% above CSS. FY24 guidance of an adj. EBITDA of at least € 1.9bn is below our and CSS forecasts of c € 2.0bn but assumes no market improvement and only integrates savings/synergies. A separation plan for Animal Nutrition & Health is initiated, targeting a different ownership. Given the recent earnings volatility and different margin profile vs the rest of the group, we believe a divestment ...

Konrad Zomer
  • Konrad Zomer

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 15/02/2024

GALP, TotalEnergies ou Shell ont découvert de colossaux gisements de pétrole au large des côtes namibiennes. Les sociétés de services y voient un nouvel eldorado. Les solutions de type FPSO semblent être privilégiées, mettant ainsi SBM Offshore en position d’acteur incontournable, sans oublier ceux liés au subsea comme TechnipFMC. Tout le secteur pourrait aider au développement économique local… et/ou avoir des impacts négatifs importants sur les communautés locales, la biodiversité o...

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