Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK630.00) - US royalties higher than expected

Q1 earnings were much higher than we and consensus expected, despite a top-line miss. While Buvidal sales were c6% below our forecast, Brixadi royalties of SEK26m were well above our SEK15m estimate. The 2024 guidance was reiterated. Following the results we have raised our 2024–2026e EPS by 13% on average, and in turn our target price to SEK630 (550). We reiterate our BUY.

CAMURUS reports Q1, showing encouraging sales uptake in the US

Camurus reported its Q1 2024 results, where i) total revenues came in at SEK 390m (vs css SEK 405m, -3.7%), of which SEK 364m product sales (+3% QoQ at CER), ii) profit before tax came in at SEK 97m (vs css 80.3m, +20%), and iii) a cash position at SEK 2,274m. We observe a steady increase in the nu

Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK550.00) - Solid start to 2024e

We forecast solid Q1 earnings, albeit down slightly YOY on a higher operating cost base (results due at 07:00 CET on 8 May). However, with Q1 last year marking the low point of R&D spend in 2023, we do not find this alarming. We believe the company will reiterate its 2024 guidance. We reiterate our BUY and SEK550 target price.

Executing as planned with a PDUFA date set for 21st October 2024 in Ac...

This morning Camurus announced that the FDA has accepted the NDA for Oclaiz (CAM2029) for the treatment of patients with acromegaly, with a PDUFA target action date of 21st October 2024. Following the FDA decision, we expect a launch in early 2025 and we remind that we believe that it has the poten

CAMURUS: After strong 2023, cautious 2024 guidance highlights need for...

Yesterday, Camurus reported its FY 2023 results, where i) total revenues came in line with expectations at SEK 1,717m, of which SEK 1.299m product sales (+39% YoY), ii) profit before tax were at SEK 549.5m (estimate SEK 582.9m), and iii) FY 2024 guidance pointing towards total revenues of SEK 1,740

Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK550.00) - Overreaction to 2024 guidance

The Q4 results were in line with the pre-announced figures from the capital raise earlier this year. However, we believe the 2024 guidance was perceived as weak for the top line and PTP. The latter guidance included cSEK300m in investments for building a commercial organisation in the US, well above what we and the market expected. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK550 (425), after adding a proportion of the value of the pipeline to our valuation.

Coverage update

Given team and strategy changes, Oscar Haffen Lamm is now assuming coverage of Medincell, Camurus, Valneva, Aelis Pharma, Abivax, Calliditas, Egetis Therapeutics, Basilea, Geneuro, Achilles, Valerio, Innate Pharma, Morphosys, Inventiva Pharma, Vicore, DBV Technologies, and Genfit.Maria Vara is now

Best in class execution of a best in class LAI tech, upping PT and rei...

We update our view on Camurus, a Swedish specialty pharma developing long-acting injectables based on its proprietary FluidCrystal technology. The company reached sustainable profitability on the back of the successful launch of Buvidal in Europe and Australia for the treatment of opioid dependence

Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK425.00) - Another earnings beat

The Q3 top line and earnings, even after adjusting for a one-off milestone of SEK25m not in our forecast, were well above expectations, with sales c10% and EBIT c56% (excluding the one-off) above consensus. Patient in-treatment was in line with our forecast, but realised average prices were higher and operating expenses lower. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK425 (380) on our forecast changes.

Northern Lights

Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK380.00) - Strong earnings and positive pipeline g...

Camurus reported earnings above consensus, but fell a little shy of our forecast on lower Buvidal sales. Brixadi has recently been approved in the US and is set to be launched by Camurus’ partner in September, while pipeline development (mainly related to CAM2029 in acromegaly) has progressed well during the quarter and into Q3. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK380 (320).

Camurus AB: 1 director

A director at Camurus AB sold 80,000 shares at 284.998SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sho...

Northern Lights

Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK320.00) - US approval for Brixadi

On its PFDUFA date (23 May), Brixadi (US tradename for Buvidal) was approved in the US to treat moderate to severe opioid use disorders. This triggers a USD35m milestone payment to Camurus and the company should receive a c15% (our estimate) royalty on sales in the US. We understand Camurus’s partner, Braeburn, plans to launch the drug in Q3 2023. We expect a moderately positive share price reaction to the news, keeping in mind the strong performance of the stock over the past few months.

Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK320.00) - Strong start to Q1

Q1 EBIT beat expectations on lower R&D spend; sales were in line with consensus but slightly below our forecast. Camurus reiterated its full-year guidance, as we expected. However, it also stated its US partner Braeburn aims to launch Brixadi in the US in Q3, if approval is granted on or around the PDUFA date (23 May). We reiterate our BUY and SEK320 target price.

Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK320.00) - Steady progress expected

We expect Camurus to report another set of strong results for Q1 (due at c07:00 CET on 10 May). We believe the growth in the number of patients on Buvidal treatment continued in Q1 and that the company has c38,000 patients under treatment as of quarter-end. In addition, we expect Brixadi to be approved in the US (with an LOA of 80%) around the PDUFA date on 23 May. We reiterate our BUY and SEK320 target price.

Northern Lights

Northern Lights

Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK320.00) - Another strong performance

Q4 earnings were in line with consensus but well above our forecast. The 2023 guidance is broadly in line with our forecasts, although we are at the top end of the PTP range. We expect solid c28% growth in underlying sales in 2023 (excluding milestones). We reiterate our BUY and SEK320 target price.

Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK320.00) - Continued sales growth expected

Q4 looks set to be solid, with investor focus on sales growth for Buvidal and comments on the drug’s territories controlled by Camurus. We expect management to guide for 2023 sales in line with our top-line estimate (cSEK1.3bn, which excludes revenues relating to the US market). We reiterate our BUY and SEK320 target price.