Norsk Hydro (Sell, TP: NOK55.00) - Aluminium defying fundamentals

We reiterate our SELL and NOK55 target price, as we believe consensus EPS and aluminium price expectations are too high. We have seen aluminium prices outperform coal prices by 40% since the summer, defying the fundamental relationship where aluminium prices have been set by its cost of production for the past 15 years. We do not believe a balanced global supply/demand situation is likely to break this correlation. We have reduced our 2026–2027e EPS by 3% due to a stronger NOK versus USD. We est...

Feb: Pulp shipments +0.3% y-o-y

Norway: Best ideas Q1'25

Circio Holding (No_rec, TP: NOK) - circVec circular RNA technology

Yesterday, Circio Holding presented the circVec platform and its potential at two international industry conferences. We continue to like the focus on the circRNA programme, but the company is still in an early stage and the funding situation remains unclear to us.

January: Pulp shipments +6.2% y-o-y

Who stands to benefit?

A potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could unlock one of the largest reconstruction efforts in modern history. The World Bank estimates Ukraine will need USD486bn in rebuilding efforts over the next decade, but we estimate this would add only c2% to annual European construction spending. While the direct earnings effect may be modest, we expect the “rebuild Ukraine theme” to drive investor sentiment. We see Volvo, Epiroc, Hexagon, Metso, Hiab and ABB as some of the primary beneficia...

Estimates up, share down — for how long?

Norsk Hydro (Sell, TP: NOK55.00) - Soft result in strong market

The Q4 headline results were weaker than consensus and our forecasts, and the proposed 2024 DPS of NOK2.25 was down 10% YOY despite record-strong alumina markets, with aluminium prices at cUSD2,600/t. We still expect aluminium prices to fall towards USD2,200/t as markets remain balanced while input energy costs decline globally, together with weak demand for downstream products. We have raised our 2025e EPS by 7% on high alumina and aluminium prices going into 2025 and 2026e by 1%. We reiterate ...

Underlying inline and cost coming down

Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK725.00) - Guidance in line with expectations

Q4 earnings were as pre-announced, and included stronger-than-expected growth in Buvidal sales as well as a slight beat on Brixadi royalties. Consensus for 2025e is at the top end of the guidance; however, historically management has raised its guidance during the year. We reiterate our BUY and SEK725 target price.

Camurus FY 2024: Strong momentum to continue into 2025

Camurus reported its FY'2024 results, which highlighted the continued growth in Q4, especially for i) Buvidal which came in at SEK469m (+11.4% QoQ), with 4,000 patients added on treatment for the quarter (vs. 3,000 for previous quarters), explained by strong market share gain in EU5, and ii) Brixad

Heads-up for report 14 February

Metsa Board (Buy, TP: EUR5.60) - Worst should be over

With Q4 earnings below our muted expectations, we have cut our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 10%. Despite this, we continue to have confidence in the investment case. We still like the earnings exposure to pulp, where we believe prices are set to rise. This combined with leverage to increase paper board volumes should lead to higher earnings in 2025–2026e. We reiterate our BUY and EUR5.6 target price.

Ending the year on a low

Q4 below, Q1 better but estimates too high

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December: Pulp shipments +1% y-o-y

Camurus: raised FY24 profitability

Yesterday Camurus raised its expected FY24 earnings, with i) profit before tax expected at SEK553m (vs guidance SEK450-510m), and ii) FY24 revenues expected at the higher range of the previously stated guidance at SEK1.868bn. This implies SEK554m in revenues in Q4 (+15% QoQ), which indicates that B

Mr. Market too pessimistic?

Norsk Hydro (Sell, TP: NOK55.00) - Downside risk for aluminium prices

We expect EBITDA of NOK8.5bn, boosted by high alumina prices. We reiterate our SELL and NOK55 target price, as we believe aluminium prices of USD~2,700/t have been driven higher by speculation rather than fundamentals. Prices are inflated by high alumina prices, which should come down as more supply enters the market. Furthermore, we believe higher copper prices will not lead to higher aluminium prices for much longer, as the two metal prices do not share fundamentals. We have raised our 2025e E...

Metsa Board (Buy, TP: EUR5.60) - Market recovery should be here

Reflecting more conservative earnings margins, we have lowered our EBITDA for 2025–2026e by 20–10%. While this is negative, we still have confidence in the investment case. We continue to like Metsa Board’s earnings exposure to pulp, where we believe prices are about to rise which, combined with leverage to increased paper board volumes, should lead to higher earnings in 2025–2026e. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to EUR5.6 (5.8).