CMD next week

Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK725.00) - Strong earnings, raised guidance

While Q3 sales were a little light, earnings were well above our estimate and consensus. Following the results, Camurus raised its 2024 sales and PTP guidance. We believe the complete response letter (CRL) for Oclaiz™ in the US could be resolved by Q1 and the product launched in the US in Q2. A European approval for Oclaiz™ could come around mid-2025, we believe. Data read-out from the SORENTO trial (being an event-driven trial) is now expected late-2025/early-2026 (Q2 2025 originally). We reite...

Camurus: Q3 highlighted strong profitability

Camurus reported its Q3 2024 results which came in slightly below market expectations for revenues, as i) total revenues came in at SEK480m (vs css SEK 499m, -3.8%), ii) Buvidal sales came in at SEK421m (vs css SEK429m, -1.9%), and iii) Brixadi royalties at SEK58m (vs css SEK66.8m, -13.2%). On a po

September: Pulp shipments -10% y-o-y

Stora acquires a Finnish sawmill company

Metsa Board (Buy, TP: EUR5.80) - Worst should be over

Although we were negative surprised by the poor Q4 earnings guidance, we believe Q4 represents the worst business conditions in the business cycle. We have made hefty cuts to our 2024–2025e EBITDA of 30–20%. While this is negative, we still have confidence in the investment case. Assuming improved pulp prices and incremental profits after the completed investments, we see strong earnings growth from Q1e, translating into attractive valuation multiples. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our ...

Going through a rough patch

How long will it last?

Clean EBIT 11% below, Q4 likely weaker

Clean EBIT of EUR 42m vs cons EUR 47m. Higher deliveries and production on paperboard. Q4 guidance: clean EBIT to be weaker vs. Q3.

Beat on cost, but cost will come back in Q4

Camurus: Oclaiz receives unexpected CRL

This morning, Camurus announced that they received a CRL regarding Oclaiz (CAM2029) in Acromegaly due to facility-related deficiencies identified during a cGMP inspection of a third-party manufacturer. The CRL did not state any other concerns, including related to clinical efficacy or safety of CAM

Metsa Board (Buy, TP: EUR9.00) - Earnings recovery story for 2025e

With recent indications that the paper board demand recovery is slowing in H224, in combination with higher wood costs and weak trading conditions for pulp, we have further lowered our 2024–2025e EBITDA by 11–12%. While this is negative, we still like the investment case. Assuming improved pulp prices and incremental profits after completed investments, we see strong earnings growth from Q1 2025e, translating into attractive valuation multiples, and a healthy balance sheet. We reiterate our BUY...

Camurus: Brixadi gaining market shares, next to come is Oclaiz

After a recent pull-back (-6.2% vs -5.46% OMX PI over the past 30 days), yesterday was marked by a stock rally (+6.82%) after a positive read-across from Indivior which disclosed preliminary Q3 2024 results where forecasts for Sublocade were further cut to USD 725-745m (from USD 765m-805m), only th

Wood is up and Pulp is down

Q3 preview

Metsa Board will report its next quarterly results on 24 October. We reiterate HOLD with a TP of EUR 7.0 (7.7). Q3'24e clean EBIT at EUR ~35m.

Norsk Hydro (Sell, TP: NOK50.00) - Aluminium is not a scarce resource

We reiterate our SELL and NOK50 target price, as we expect aluminium prices to return to a fundamentals-backed level of ~USD2,200/t soon. Aluminium prices – in line with copper – have surged twice this year, but we stress that aluminium is not set to become a scarce resource – as may be the case for copper. Copper is a mined metal where the possibility of scarcity has led to a price surge of ~400% since 2000, while aluminium prices have been largely flat in the same period as bauxite is abundant...

Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK750.00) - Sales and PDUFA date in focus

Ahead of the Q3 results (due at 07:00 CET on 7 November), we believe the stock market will continue to focus on Braeburn’s launch of Brixadi in the US and underlying sales growth of Buvidal in already launched markets. In addition, the company should receive an answer from the FDA regarding the potential approval of Oclaiz for acromegaly in the US (PDUFA date 21 October), and will most likely provide more details of the planned launch, in our view. We reiterate our BUY and SEK750 target price.

Circio Holding (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Development continues, financing un...

We continue to believe Circio’s technology has significant potential and that the company will successfully secure a partnering deal. However, while we estimate it has secured a runway through H1 2025, the funding situation remains unclear to us, and we thus continue to have no recommendation or target price on Circio.

Upstream strong, downstream weak

August: Pulp shipments -10% y-o-y