Approaching IDS acceleration

Q1 showed encouraging Mobile Service growth and IDS rebound, with IDS growth accelerating in H2 – '24e EBITDA growth up 1%. Valuation remains too attractive: keep BUY, TP to EUR 50 (48)

Strong MSR growth and IDS recovery

Re-rated, but a bit more to give

Solid Q1 across the board, acceleration in the right segments. Minor revisons on EBITDAaL, but we upgrade '26e FCF by 5%, which represents a ~9% yield and keep s us as BUYers.

Good mix as Q1 comes in 1% above cons

Heads-up for report 18 April

The iliad revolution

Q1'24e: Muted adj. EBITDAaL growth well communicated. Eliminated overhang means limited hurdles for a re-rating where we argue 9% FCF yield in '26e is too cheap - BUY.

Great entry has arrived - up to BUY

Q1'24e on 19 April: clockwork adj. EBITDA growth, up 3% y-o-y. 5G SA could support improved B2B outlook, IDS recovery nearing. '24e div. yield of 5.6%, '25e-'26e DPS and FCF CAGR >4% - BUY.

Baltics to drive healthy 5% EBITDA growth

Q1e LFL service revenue and adj. EBITDA up 2% and 5%. Danish sale closed, leverage down to 2.1x in Q2'24e. Relative yield not attractive enough — keep HOLD.

MWC 2024: what we learned

We attended the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. Significant potential for improved 5G monetisation, leading to higher potential 5G capex.

Time to prove the cash generation

Solid Q4 but supported by large B2B contracts. '24e FCF up 47% on savings, lower capex; improved Colombia outlook. Lease adj. FCF yield of 16%, but not meeting CoE requirement - HOLD.

Strong '24 FCF guidance 49% above cons

Strong Q4 report from True

Q4 likely to be the trough

Q4e: major restructuring costs weighing on EBITDA. Limited organic '24e revisions. Keep HOLD - wait for cash flow proof.

Operational leverage driving earnings growth

Sales +5% y-o-y, EBITA +38% y-o-y. We lift '24e-'25e EBITA by 3% on 1% lower opex. 10x '24e EV/EBITA, we estimate 14% EBITA growth in '24.

12% EBITA beat on lower costs

5% beat on EBITDA-capex

NOK 8bn write-down in True

'25e only a bump in the cash flow road

Strong Q4 on quality items, and raised DPS. Lower '25e cash flow, but expect a sharp improvement in '26e. Tele2 remains our preferred telco - keep BUY at 8% div. yield.

Great Q4 overshadowed by '25 capex outlook

Await a better entry – down to HOLD

Elevated capex in Q4'23 and '24 weighing on FCF, which we believe should hold the share back from outperforming. Down to HOLD – appealing long-term but await better entry.