June: Pulp shipments +5% y-o-y

Capex-light projects vs. paper cuts

Q2 clean EBITDA somewhat above cons

May: Pulp shipments -1.7% y-o-y

More value than momentum, except for wood

Q2 preview

Apr: Pulp shipments +2% y-o-y

Large forest deal at EV/EBITDA 36-60x

Mar: Pulp shipments +7% y-o-y

Norske Skog (Buy, TP: NOK30.00) - High risk, but potential high reward

Although we have lowered our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 17%–4% on higher ramp-up-related costs, we find the Q1 report positive overall. Besides slightly better underlying Q1 earnings compared to our forecast, management remains firm that the balance sheet situation is under good control at the same time as the long period of ambitious growth investment is ending in H2. Thus, we continue to see attractive cash flows from 2026e and a strong revaluation potential if our earnings forecasts materialise. We...

A weaker USD vs. EUR is negative

Q1 was in-line

Norske Skog (Buy, TP: NOK30.00) - All eyes on the Golbey start-up

We have made relatively small changes to our estimates, with the largest impact coming from FX (weaker NOK). We believe the stock offers a favourable risk/reward for three reasons: 1) the stretched balance sheet is under control; 2) we expect strong earnings growth with the ramp-up of Golbey containerboard production; and 3) we do not rule out further actions, such as cost-cutting programmes or asset sales. We base our modelling on zero benefit from improving markets, but still see 2027e FCF of ...

Two negatives and one positive

Q1 preview

Feb: Pulp shipments +0.3% y-o-y

January: Pulp shipments +6.2% y-o-y

Potential for better prices

Norske Skog (Buy, TP: NOK30.00) - Starting a new chapter

After revisiting our investment case, we conclude the stock offers a favourable risk/reward for three reasons: 1) the stretched balance sheet is now under control; 2) with the ramp-up of the two new packaging mills, we expect strong earnings growth; and 3) we do not rule out further company actions. We now assume zero benefit from improving markets, but still see 2027e FCF of NOK700m, translating into a 40% yield. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD), and raised our target price to NOK30 (22).

Live to fight another day