Apr: Pulp shipments +2% y-o-y

Large forest deal at EV/EBITDA 36-60x

Mar: Pulp shipments +7% y-o-y

Norske Skog (Buy, TP: NOK30.00) - High risk, but potential high reward

Although we have lowered our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 17%–4% on higher ramp-up-related costs, we find the Q1 report positive overall. Besides slightly better underlying Q1 earnings compared to our forecast, management remains firm that the balance sheet situation is under good control at the same time as the long period of ambitious growth investment is ending in H2. Thus, we continue to see attractive cash flows from 2026e and a strong revaluation potential if our earnings forecasts materialise. We...

A weaker USD vs. EUR is negative

Q1 was in-line

Norske Skog (Buy, TP: NOK30.00) - All eyes on the Golbey start-up

We have made relatively small changes to our estimates, with the largest impact coming from FX (weaker NOK). We believe the stock offers a favourable risk/reward for three reasons: 1) the stretched balance sheet is under control; 2) we expect strong earnings growth with the ramp-up of Golbey containerboard production; and 3) we do not rule out further actions, such as cost-cutting programmes or asset sales. We base our modelling on zero benefit from improving markets, but still see 2027e FCF of ...

Two negatives and one positive

Q1 preview

Feb: Pulp shipments +0.3% y-o-y

January: Pulp shipments +6.2% y-o-y

Potential for better prices

Norske Skog (Buy, TP: NOK30.00) - Starting a new chapter

After revisiting our investment case, we conclude the stock offers a favourable risk/reward for three reasons: 1) the stretched balance sheet is now under control; 2) with the ramp-up of the two new packaging mills, we expect strong earnings growth; and 3) we do not rule out further company actions. We now assume zero benefit from improving markets, but still see 2027e FCF of NOK700m, translating into a 40% yield. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD), and raised our target price to NOK30 (22).

Live to fight another day

Norske Skog (Hold, TP: NOK22.00) - Actions in challenging markets

Although we were disappointed by the weak earnings for Publication in Q4, we remain encouraged by all actions management is pursuing to cut costs and improve the balance sheet. In addition to the insurance settlement of NOK540m, it divested the Austrailasian business. Thus, we have cut our 2025 earnings, but believe the balance sheet situation is under good control. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK22 target price

A weak Q4, CO2 compensation at risk

December: Pulp shipments +1% y-o-y

Norske Skog (Hold, TP: NOK22.00) - Market headwinds take their toll

Due to an unfavourable combination of falling European test-liner prices, continued wood price pressure and reduced free CO2 allowances from January 2026, we have cut our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 7–21%. While this raises concerns about the elevated debt level, our conviction in the transformational story remains, and we believe Norske Skog’s mills in paper and packaging are competitive and offer low production costs. We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) and cut our target price to NOK22 (32).

Little momentum, more value

Q4 preview