TalkTalk H1 results: Guidance looks at risk

TalkTalk has reported its H1 results to August, albeit given the lack of an investor presentation, it is hard to decipher all the changes vs. their guidance at this stage, but we think the numbers are at the low end of any prior guidance. We are still also critically waiting for any disclosure on KPIs since February, but we think the risk is to the downside given Openreach disclosure.

Vodafone (Buy, 140p, +100%) Post call thoughts: What is needed to hit...

Vodafone’s H1 earnings call recently wrapped up with the stock having sold off during and after the call. We review our thoughts on this and in this note show some further analysis on what would be required to meet the FY EBITDA guidance based on the new comments given in the call.

Vodafone (Buy, 140p, +100%) H1 25 - Questions still lingering in Germ...

Vodafone has reported their H1 results, and although headline numbers were in line with expectations and all guidance has been reiterated.

Altice International (Over weight) Digi (Equal weight) NOS (Neutral, T...

Digi launched in Portugal, one week ago – read our take HERE. In this report we look at how the launch has been received in Portugal (including a run-through of tariff changes by the incumbents).

Vodafone UK-3 merger: Detailed review of CMA remedy paper

GERMAN ALTNET UPDATE: What will be the key to success?

Last week, we reviewed the UK altnet market. So this week, we turn our attention to Germany and how the fibre challengers are developing in that market. We have done a lot of work over the past few months on the MDU market in Germany for TeleColumbus and OXG. So now, we specifically focus on Deutsche Glasfaser and the recent UGG/ Infrafibre deal, as these players mount their challenge against DT in the SDU market.

UK Telcos Impact from higher employers' taxation in upcoming Budget

Over the weekend, it has been widely reported that the upcoming Budget this Wednesday will include a 2pp rise for employer national insurance tax. In this brief note, we run through the financial implications of this for the UK telecoms companies (BT, VMO2, TalkTalk and Vodafone) and who is most exposed.

Vodafone should be bold: Buy out OXG minority Unlocking synergies fro...

This week we have the DT CMD and therefore the topic of German fibre build will likely be in focus. Over the past few months, we have written a number of thematic notes looking at this topic in more detail:

Vodafone (Buy, 140p, +89%) Hidden upside in the non-EU assets

Today, our colleague Chris Hoare has published two thematic notes looking at Sub-Saharan African telecoms companies. These focus on the potential for market structures and revenues to improve, and especially after periods of currency weakness (which has been notable in Egypt and Turkey).

FWA in Europe: Maybe it isn't accelerating Analysis of Hutchison's H1...

Clearly the biggest issue for them is whether the merger with Vodafone UK will be approved or not. As one would also expect they couldn’t be drawn on any new substantive comments on this while the CMA process is ongoing. For our detailed thoughts from May on the CMA Phase 1 findings on that deal, please see our expert call on the topic.

Vodafone (Buy, 135p, +91%) Q1 25 - Assessing a revised outlook for Ge...

Vodafone’s Q1 results are now boosted by some additional (and supportive) EBITDA disclosure, but the ongoing fly in the ointment is still their German broadband KPI trend which remains unresolved.

EU Towers/ Vodafone Our take on Vantage selldown

This morning Vodafone finally announced that they have sold a further 10% stake in Oak Holdings (the Vantage Towers holding company) to the consortium led by GIP and KKR, for €1.3bn of proceeds. In this brief note, we run through what this implies for Vodafone and other tower valuations.

EU Telecoms: Half-time report 2024 Sector should still be able to out...

European Telecoms has had a reasonable first half of 2024 – up 7% vs. the market up 9% - and is up 15% since January 2022 – bang in line with the EU market. The sector trades in line with the market on P/E for similar earnings growth, but we still see two major structural levers of upside:

Vodafone (Buy, £1.35, +88%) Might Vodafone be able to extract cash fr...

Vodafone’s decision to sell Softbank KK in Japan back in 2006 and swap the proceeds into Hutchison India in 2007 might well go down as one of the worst telecom M&A swaps in history. Vodafone’s exposure to India has caused nothing but difficulties for them, but this morning Vodafone announced that they have sold an 18% stake in Indus Towers through a block trade, raising €1.7bn in gross proceeds.

Vodafone (Buy, 135p, +87%) Thoughts post-call

Vodafone’s full-year earnings call has just wrapped up and in this note, we run through our key takeaways.

Vodafone (Buy, 135p, +87%) The Rule of Three: 3% EBITDA growth at 3x ...

Vodafone’s FY results have less to unpack than usual, with Spain and Italy now treated as discontinued items, as a sign of the ongoing simplification of the group. New guidance given for FY25 looks supportive and is marginally ahead of consensus.

German FTTH/ altnet deep-dive update Dynamics still supportive for th...

We update our forecasts for the German FTTH/ broadband market. Although we now forecast slower broadband market growth in Germany than previously, we believe the dynamic remains attractive for the larger players: DT & Vodafone

FWA: Should wireline operators be worried?

The Vodafone-Three UK proposed merger is now moving to a Phase 2 enquiry and one of their major arguments for the merger focuses on offering increased FWA services.

Vodafone (Buy, 140p, +100%) Our take on the new look Vodafone

Vodafone has confirmed its pre-announced €8bn deal with Swisscom, so the real new news today is the revised outlook for cash return and changes in the management structure. We summarise our thoughts here.

Swisscom (Neutral, TP: CHF620, +20%) Swisscom and Vodafone agree bind...

Swisscom and Vodafone have announced a binding agreement for Vodafone Italy: an €8bn EV for 100% of the company, on a debt-free basis. We update our thoughts on the deal in this piece from a Swisscom perspective, and will be following up with a piece looking at the deal from a Vodafone perspective later today.