Inwit has issued new guidance reflecting the breakdown in the relationship with the two anchor tenants (TIM and Swisscom), implying a mid-teens cut to our cash flow forecasts. But the market thinks there’s more to come, with the current share price implying a substantial cut to MSA revenue at renewal (whether that be in 2028 or 2038).
Today, we are publishing the Telecom Infrastructure section of our 30th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Telecom capex was flat year-on-year in 4Q25 and operator guidance implies this trend will continue in 2026. The outlook for equipment vendors is in line with our expectations: mobile stable,...
The whole EU Telco sector has been on a tear YTD (+18% vs STOXX E600 +5%), as macro factors give support (AI-resilience, sector rotation). For Swisscom and Sunrise this has been augmented by perceptions that Switzerland is a “safe haven” thanks to the strong CHF and low 10-year risk free rate.
In this note, we update our model and thoughts following the Q4 results (HERE) incorporating conference call feedback and compare our new estimates to guidance and consensus. Swisscom trades at a significant premium to the sector thanks to favourable macro factors (rates, yield, Italy M&A, CHF strength) but the telco issues (Swiss SR, Salt share gains, ARPU weakness), do not warrant such an elevated multiple in our view.
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