reports
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | DTC headwinds fade, dividends rise, and value beckons
Strong Q3 Results Reinforce Optimism on Lending Growth and NII Resilience - Greek banks delivered another strong quarter in Q3, surpassing our and consensus estimates, driven by higher-than-expected NII (+3% vs cons) and significantly lower impairments (-25% vs cons). Despite NII headwinds, the NIM held firm at 2.74%, driven by low deposit betas (17% of the overall deposit base), resilient lending spreads (-12 bps ytd), incremental yields from reinvested bond portfolios, and strong credit growth...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | DTC headwinds fade, dividends rise, and value beckons
Strong Q3 Results Reinforce Optimism on Lending Growth and NII Resilience - Greek banks delivered another strong quarter in Q3, surpassing our and consensus estimates, driven by higher-than-expected NII (+3% vs cons) and significantly lower impairments (-25% vs cons). Despite NII headwinds, the NIM held firm at 2.74%, driven by low deposit betas (17% of the overall deposit base), resilient lending spreads (-12 bps ytd), incremental yields from reinvested bond portfolios, and strong credit growth...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Technical factors mask dividend growth and earnings resi...
Solid fundamentals, but technical pressures have been weighing on performance – Despite consistently exceeding profit estimates in recent quarters, Greek banks have underperformed peripheral banks and the SX7E index by c20% and c5% ytd, respectively. While NII headwinds persist, the impact has been less severe than expected, with only a 1% qoq decline in Q2. Banks' resilience is further supported by improvements in asset quality, stronger fee generation driven by lending activity and a 13% ytd i...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Technical factors mask dividend growth and earnings resi...
Solid fundamentals, but technical pressures have been weighing on performance – Despite consistently exceeding profit estimates in recent quarters, Greek banks have underperformed peripheral banks and the SX7E index by c20% and c5% ytd, respectively. While NII headwinds persist, the impact has been less severe than expected, with only a 1% qoq decline in Q2. Banks' resilience is further supported by improvements in asset quality, stronger fee generation driven by lending activity and a 13% ytd i...
National Bank Of Greece: 2 directors
Two Directors at National Bank Of Greece sold/bought 3,684 shares at between 7.474EUR and 7.700EUR. The significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directo...
Moody's Ratings changes National Bank of Greece S.A.'s outlook on the ...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has today changed National Bank of Greece S.A.'s (NBG) outlook for its Baa2 senior unsecured debt and long-term deposit ratings to positive from stable, following the outlook change to positive from stable in the Government of Greece's Ba1 issuer rating. Concurrently, we ha...
- MarketLine Department
Piraeus Bank S.A. - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Allia...
Summary Marketline's Piraeus Bank S.A. Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments report includes business description, detailed reports on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), divestments, capital raisings, venture capital investments, ownership and partnership transactions undertaken by Piraeus Bank S.A. - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances since January2007. Marketline's Company Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments...
Moody's Ratings upgrades National Bank of Greece S.A.'s long- and shor...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has today upgraded the long- and short-term deposit ratings of National Bank of Greece S.A. (NBG) to Baa2/P-2 from Baa3/P-3, its long-term senior unsecured ratings by two notches to Baa2 from Ba1, as well as the standalone Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) and Adjusted BCA o...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Banking on dividends again
ECB approval and EPS upgrades likely to catalyze a re-rating – The ECB has approved Greek banks' requests to pay the proposed dividends out of 2023 profits, signaling a return to normality after 16 years. The announced payouts correspond to shareholder remuneration of €0.063 for Piraeus (1.7% DY), €0.052 for Alpha Bank, equally split between a cash dividend of €0.026 (1.6% DY) and a buyback (3.2% total yield), €0.0933 for Eurobank (4.6% DY), and €0.36 for NBG (4.6% DY). Following a period of >15...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Banking on dividends again
ECB approval and EPS upgrades likely to catalyze a re-rating – The ECB has approved Greek banks' requests to pay the proposed dividends out of 2023 profits, signaling a return to normality after 16 years. The announced payouts correspond to shareholder remuneration of €0.063 for Piraeus (1.7% DY), €0.052 for Alpha Bank, equally split between a cash dividend of €0.026 (1.6% DY) and a buyback (3.2% total yield), €0.0933 for Eurobank (4.6% DY), and €0.36 for NBG (4.6% DY). Following a period of >15...
- MarketLine Department
Piraeus Financial Holdings SA - Company Profile and SWOT Analysis
Summary Piraeus Financial Holdings SA - Company Profile and SWOT Analysis, is a source of comprehensive company data and information. The report covers the company's structure, operation, SWOT analysis, product and service offerings and corporate actions, providing a 360˚ view of the company. Key Highlights Piraeus Financial Holdings SA (Piraeus) is a provider of banking and other related financial solutions. It offers a range of accounts and deposit products; consumer and business loans; car...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Solid Q1 leaves upside skew to FY24e; Buy
Q1 Results Beat Estimates – Greek banks kicked off the year with strong Q1 results, with adj. net profit remaining flat qoq at €1.26bn and soaring 45% yoy exceeding both our and consensus estimates by >10%, as a result of resilient NII and lower-than-expected underlying CoR (at 64bps vs EEe of 77bps). In more detail, sector-wide NII surged 15.5% yoy in Q1 (NIM +42bps), slipping just 2.6% qoq (NIM down by 8bps) after a record-breaking Q4’23, in line with our estimates, with Eurobank showing the m...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Solid Q1 leaves upside skew to FY24e; Buy
Q1 Results Beat Estimates – Greek banks kicked off the year with strong Q1 results, with adj. net profit remaining flat qoq at €1.26bn and soaring 45% yoy exceeding both our and consensus estimates by >10%, as a result of resilient NII and lower-than-expected underlying CoR (at 64bps vs EEe of 77bps). In more detail, sector-wide NII surged 15.5% yoy in Q1 (NIM +42bps), slipping just 2.6% qoq (NIM down by 8bps) after a record-breaking Q4’23, in line with our estimates, with Eurobank showing the m...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Valuation remains out of sync with sustainable RoTEs
March underperformance sparked repositioning opportunity; risk-reward compelling – Greek bank shares had a strong start to 2024 (until Feb) closing the valuation gap vs EU periphery peers buoyed by the stellar 2023 profits (adj. RoTE of c16%), successful B/S de-risking (NPE ratio c4%) and improved market liquidity post HFSF’s placements. However, in March they suffered a bout of underperformance (>15%), with the relative 2024e P/TBV discount widening to c20% (and the P/E discount even higher) on...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Valuation remains out of sync with sustainable RoTEs
March underperformance sparked repositioning opportunity; risk-reward compelling – Greek bank shares had a strong start to 2024 (until Feb) closing the valuation gap vs EU periphery peers buoyed by the stellar 2023 profits (adj. RoTE of c16%), successful B/S de-risking (NPE ratio c4%) and improved market liquidity post HFSF’s placements. However, in March they suffered a bout of underperformance (>15%), with the relative 2024e P/TBV discount widening to c20% (and the P/E discount even higher) on...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Dividends Ahoy
Resilient NII despite funding challenges and likely interest rate cuts – Following a >50% surge in NII in 2023e (58% in the 9m period), investor focus has been clearly shifting to prospects for 2024-25e, especially in view of likely rate cuts. Despite the upcoming peak in NII (in Q4’23 or Q1’24), we project resilience in 2024, supported by credit growth (c4% p.a. in 2024-25e), the gradual benefit from deposit hedges (contributing c4% of NII by 2025e) as well as the lower-than-anticipated deposit...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Dividends Ahoy
Resilient NII despite funding challenges and likely interest rate cuts – Following a >50% surge in NII in 2023e (58% in the 9m period), investor focus has been clearly shifting to prospects for 2024-25e, especially in view of likely rate cuts. Despite the upcoming peak in NII (in Q4’23 or Q1’24), we project resilience in 2024, supported by credit growth (c4% p.a. in 2024-25e), the gradual benefit from deposit hedges (contributing c4% of NII by 2025e) as well as the lower-than-anticipated deposit...
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