Energy Morning - 7 November 2024

Q3 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Energy Morning - 4 November 2024

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Aker BP reported Q3 results, with underlying figures in line with expectations. We believe operational tailwinds could benefit it going into 2025, with consensus perhaps underestimating the production potential. Meanwhile, although OKEA reported a strong Q3, we believe it was overshadowed by the introduction of production and capex guidance, which we consider soft. In other news, we see several potential share-price catalysts for BlueNord in the coming months, with the Tyra restart se...

Tyra plateau expected before year-end

Energy Morning - 1 November 2024

BlueNord (Buy, TP: NOK610.00) - Catalysts should be lined up ahead

The underlying Q3 results were virtually in line with our estimates and consensus. We see several potential share price catalysts over the next months, with the Tyra restart set for the second half of November and a sequential ramp-up to plateau in December. Moreover, we expect to gain more understanding of the volume potential from the recent successful HEMJ exploration well, which could help to extend the production plateau for BlueNord. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to...

Q3: EBITDA in line, Tyra plateau still expected in Q4

Q3 EBITDA of USD 85m, vs cons of USD 89m. Tyra plateau production still expected in Q4. Report looks much as expected.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector

Potential exploration catalysts

Exploration activity on the NCS has remained high into Q4, with six exploration wells and one appraisal ongoing, and up to 10 more expected by year-end, representing 1.3bn boe in total resource potential. We consider Bounty, Arkenstone, Falstaff, and Kvernbit as key wells to keep an eye on. In our view, OKEA stands out relative to its own size due to its 20% stake in the upcoming Arkenstone well, with substantial upside potential if successful. Meanwhile, we believe Equinor, Aker BP, and Vår Ene...

Energy Morning - 29 October 2024

Hexagon (Buy, TP: SEK133.00) - Get your calculators out

We believe the Q3 results were light, but see potent triggers in our re-rating case as: 1) investors shift focus towards an earnings momentum story building from 5% organic sales growth YOY and 13% adj. EPS growth YOY in 2025e; 2) the possible spin-off of ‘NewCo’ (ALI division, ~20% of EBIT) could remove its conglomerate discount and crystallise values; and 3) the valuation remains in trough territory on absolute and relative bases. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK133...

Near-term estimates down ahead of Q3

Taking action to add value

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Equinor reported Q3 results in line with our estimates. We believe focus among investors remains on the potential for reduced renewable capex at its CMU in February 2025, where we consider the risk/reward attractive and see a reduction to its renewable capex as likely. Also, Vår Energi reported solid Q3 results, with EBITDA 6–5% above expectations. In other news, OKEA reported strong Q3 production, with 2024 production likely to reach the high end of its guidance.

Slightly below, but all eyes on the ALI spin-out

Energy Morning - 24 October 2024

Energy Morning - 23 October 2024

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.