GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales down 4.8% yoy, missing estimates. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Desay SV, and Geely. Top SELL: GAC. INDONESIA Update Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp10,850/Target: Rp12,000) Strong loan growth continues; asset quality remains solid. MALAYSIA Update SD Guthrie (SDG MK/HOLD/RM4.88/Target: RM4.75) Plantatio...
GFPT reported a net profit of Bt583m for 2Q24, up 67% yoy and 25% qoq, exceeding than our and market expectations by 11% and 9% respectively. The strong 2Q24 earnings were due to a higher gross profit margin and share of profit. Looking forward, we expect less exciting earnings momentum in 2H24 as we expect 3Q24 earnings to decline qoq but improve yoy. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt15.40.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Amata Corporation (AMATA TB/BUY/Bt23.50/Target: Bt30.00) 2Q24: Earnings below expectations; positive earnings outlook in 2H24. AP Thailand (AP TB/BUY/Bt7.85/Target: Bt11.30) 2Q24: Results within expectations; expect 3Q24 earnings to improve qoq. Bangkok Expressway and Metro (BEM TB/BUY/Bt7.75/Target: Bt11.60) 2Q24: Earnings in line. Banpu PCL (BANPU TB/HOLD/Bt4.60/Target: Bt5.00) ...
GFPT reported strong 1Q24 core earnings of Bt441m, up 86% yoy and 9% qoq, higher than our and market forecasts by 6-9%. The key drivers were from higher export volume, gross margin and share of profit. For 2Q24, we expect to see continuous yoy earnings growth on the back of better gross margin and share of profit. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt14.40.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB/BUY/Bt41.25/Target: Bt52.00) 1Q24: Results beat expectations; attractive long-term growth outlook. GFPT Plc. (GFPT TB/BUY/Bt12.60/Target: Bt14.40) 1Q24: Strong yoy earnings growth. LPN Development (LPN TB/SELL/Bt3.48/Target: Bt2.40) 1Q24: Results beat expectations but remain below the desired level. Major Cineplex (MAJOR TB/BUY/Bt14.80/Target: Bt18.00) ...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Call Adding CR Beer, Crystal, Geely, Haier, Kuaishou, Ningbo Tuopu, Pinduoduo, Shenzhou, and Tencent to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. Small-Mid Cap Monthly Reiterate BUY on Crystal International. Sector Automobile Weekly: EV sales pick up; take...
GFPT’s 4Q23 net profit increased 27% qoq, exceeding our and market estimates by 12% and 8% respectively. The key drivers were gross margin improvement and a higher share of profit. We still expect 1Q24 earnings momentum to be resilient on the back of strong chicken export orders and a recovery in chicken carcass prices. We expect GFPT to deliver a slight yoy growth in 2024 from a high base. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt14.40.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results AP Thailand (AP TB/BUY/Bt10.90/Target: Bt13.50) 4Q23: Results in line; targets to grow presales and revenue in 2024 despite challenges. GFPT (GFPT TB/BUY/Bt11.70/Target: Bt14.40) 4Q23: Better-than-expected results; resilient momentum in 1Q24. Muangthai Capital (MTC TB/HOLD/Bt43.50/Target: Bt40.00) 4Q23: Earnings beat market expectation. Supalai (SPALI TB/BUY/Bt19.80/Target: Bt24.20) 4Q23: Results exceed expectation, expect to see a recovery in 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Property: A closer look at China’s property market: Takeaways from project visits in Shenzhen/Guangzhou/Shanghai/Suzhou. Update Meituan (3690 HK/HOLD/HK$72.75/Target: HK$70.00): 4Q23 results preview: Pressured margins given persisting headwinds and competition. Downgrade to HOLD. INDONESIA Sector Banking: Loan growth to support earnings growth in 2024. MALAYSIA Results CelcomDigi (CDB MK/HOLD/RM4.37/Target: RM4.50): 2023: Above our expectations but in line with street est...
GFPT reported 3Q23 net profit of Bt318m, down 53% yoy and 8.6% qoq. The key pressures were mainly from lower gross margin and share of profit. However, GFPT is expected to deliver a qoq earnings improvement following better chicken exports and lower raw material costs. Although we expect 2023 earnings to decline 36%, we expect a 5.3% yoy improvement in 2024. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt15.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Banpu PCL (BANPU TB/HOLD/Bt7.70/Target: Bt8.00) 3Q23: Net profit rebounds qoq. BEC World PCL (BEC TB/HOLD/Bt5.80/Target: Bt5.50) 3Q23: Earnings far below estimates; dim outlook to persist going forward. Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL TB/BUY/Bt45.00/Target: Bt52.00) 3Q23: Another disappointing set of results, but should have bottomed out. COM7 (COM7 TB/BUY/Bt26.00/Target: Bt32.50) 3Q23: Lower-than-expected 3Q23 results. Expect yoy improvement in 4Q23. CP ALL (CPALL TB/B...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: EV sales up 38% yoy and 9% mom in 1-6 August, in line with estimates. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, CATL and Li Auto. Results Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$94.30/Target: HK$133.00): 1QFY24: Strong beat on all levels after restructuring. Hysan Development (14 HK/BUY/HK$17.56/Target: HK$26.18): 1H23: Results distorted by AEI; competitiveness of retail portfolio enhanced. INDONESIA Results United Tractors (UNTR IJ/HOLD/Rp27,600/Target: Rp28,000):2Q23...
GFPT posted 2Q23 core profit of Bt334m, down 31% yoy, but improving 41% qoq — better than our and consensus estimates. The qoq earnings improvement was from higher sales, gross margin, and share of profit. Although 3Q23 earnings will be softer than expected, we still prefer GFPT over peers. We still maintain our 2023-24 earnings forecast. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt15.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Esso Thailand (ESSO TB/HOLD/Bt9.30/Target: Bt9.80) 2Q23: Weak results. GFPT (GFPT TB/BUY/Bt11.90/Target: Bt15.00) 2Q23: Better-than-expected results. Earnings to still be better than peers’. PTT (PTT TB/BUY/Bt35.75/Target: Bt41.00) 2Q23: Net profit within expectations. WHA Corporation (WHA TB/HOLD/Bt4.88/Target: Bt5.20) 2Q23: Impressive results beating our forecasts. Update Asset World Corporation (AWC TB/HOLD/Bt4.36/Target: Bt5.30) 2Q23: Earnings missed due to high...
The presence of El Nino has already been confirmed. However, we need to monitor its severity during 4Q23. In the case of a moderate to strong El Nino, the key beneficiaries will be upstream agriculture plays and some midstream agri-food producers who can pass on their costs to customers. The losers would be companies with limited ability to pass on costs and the ones that focus on low-end customers, such as energy drink producers and some consumer finance plays. Top picks: CPALL, BJC, and GFPT.
We expect GFPT’s 2Q23 core earnings to increase 11% qoq on higher export volume and ASPs. We have revised up our 2023-24 earnings by 11.6% and 10.7% to reflect higher-than-expected chicken prices and a new primary plant in 2H23. Although 2023 earnings are expected to drop 40.8% yoy, we expect an 11.2% yoy increase in 2024. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt15.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Regional Plantation Thailand, the third-largest CPO-producing country, is adding planting area by converting land used for other crops. The dry weather in 1Q23 is affecting production in 2H23. Update GFPT (GFPT TB/BUY/Bt12.40/Target: Bt15.00) Most resilient earnings among Thai farm operators.
REGIONAL Sector Plantation: Thailand, the third-largest CPO-producing country, is adding planting area by converting land used for other crops. The dry weather in 1Q23 is affecting production in 2H23. GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation: Airlines: Expecting strong summer peak travel; equity-raisings still an overhang. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Internet: 618 shopping gala – Price war reignited amid tempered consumption. Update WuXi Biologics (Cayman) (2269 HK/SELL/HK$38.75/Target: HK$30.00): Expect slow r...
GFPT reported 1Q23 earnings of Bt237m, down by 45.3% yoy and 47.5% qoq. The key pressures were from lower profitability and share of profit. We cut 2023-24 earnings forecast by 34% and 24%, respectively to reflect weaker-than-expected gross margin outlook. However, we expect improvement in 2H23 earnings momentum. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt13.20.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Bangkok Chain Hospital (BCH TB/SELL/Bt18.80/Target: Bt17.30) 1Q23: A shocking earnings surprise to the downside on slumped margins. Downgrade to SELL Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB/BUY/Bt29.75/Target: Bt33.00) 1Q23: Earnings hit a new record high on robust revenue and margins. Upgrade to BUY. Bangkok Expressway and Metro (BEM TB/HOLD/Bt9.05/Target: Bt9.80) 1Q23: Earnings beat on lower-than-expected expenditure. GFPT (GFPT TB/BUY/Bt11.20/Target: Bt13.20) 1Q2...
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