EME Equity Market – November 2025 Czech PX leads in November, Türkiye the only loser. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.5% mom in EUR terms and 2.1% mom in USD terms in November. The Czech PX was the top performer, adding 4.7% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE and the Hungarian BUX (+4.4% and +3.7% mom, respectively, in EUR terms). The Romanian BET and Polish WIG 20 were also in the green (+1.3% and +1.0% mom in EUR terms). The only loser was the Turkish ISE 30 (-2.0% mom in EUR terms).
Hidroelectrica’s net electricity generation declined by 23% y-o-y in 9M 2025 due to a severe hydrological drought, which led to a 15% downward revision to the company’s FY net profit guidance. Given i/ weaker hydro production and limited capacity additions; ii/ a downward-sloping forward curve, reflecting LT Romanian power price convergence towards Western European benchmarks; and iii/ a shift in the revenue mix towards the lower-margin supply business, we downgrade Hidroelectrica to Underperfor...
The macro backdrop entering 2026E remains broadly supportive for high-dividend strategies across Emerging Europe and the frontier markets, but the opportunity set has clearly narrowed. After a year of sharp repricing across the WOOD universe, the high dividend conditions of 2024-25 have largely disappeared, as a result of many sectors rerating materially. As a result, high-dividend exposure is no longer a broad regional trade: the most compelling opportunities are now concentrated. However, the ...
HEADLINES: • ING BSK: eyes 19% ROE and is more open to higher dividend payouts in its strategy update POSITIVE • Warsaw Stock Exchange: strong 3Q25 delivery with a 7% beat to consensus POSITIVE • Murapol: 3Q25E close to our forecasts with weaker revenue, but stronger gross margin NEUTRAL • Orlen: swaps some Norwegian assets with DNO NEUTRAL • Athens Exchange Group: Euronext reportedly reaches the acquisition threshold NEUTRAL • Hidroelectrica: 3Q25 net profit of RON 0.73bn, 14% lower yoy; conse...
On Friday 14 November, after the close, Hidroelectrica reported its 3Q25 results. The adjusted EBITDA stood at RON 1.06bn, 10% lower yoy and 3% below our estimate, on the back of higher costs for the acquisition of power than we had pencilled in. The net result reached RON 0.73bn (-14% yoy) and was 5% below our estimates, on a lower net financial result than we had assumed in our model. For 9M25, the net profit reached RON 2.3bn, 34% lower yoy. We estimate net profit of RON 3.2bn for FY25E, whil...
HEADLINES: • MOL: much to admire, despite the fire (stays BUY) • PGE: decent 3Q25 results - recurring EBITDA at PLN 2.95bn (+6% vs. our expectations), but weak net income NEUTRAL • Benefit Systems: 3Q25 adjusted EBIT up 42% yoy, 15% above our forecast; FY25E cards addition target exceeded by November, FY26 plan of 260k+ new cards POSITIVE • Hidroelectrica: 3Q25 net profit of RON 0.73bn, 14% lower yoy and 5% below our estimate NEGATIVE • Sphera Group: 3Q25 soft, but better than we expected NEUTRA...
HEADLINES: • BIM: 3Q25 results – strong beat POSITIVE • CEZ: 3Q25 operating results miss, bottom line beats by 9% NEUTRAL • Kaspi.kz: 3Q25 highlights – 2025 continues to be soft; USD 100m buyback NEUTRAL • Air Astana Group: 3Q25 – EBITDAR down 17% yoy, despite 15% ASK growth NEGATIVE • Optima Bank: small bottom-line miss in 3Q25, but FY25E guidance maintained NEUTRAL • Aselsan: second Steel Dome serial production contract, and signs MOU with ROMARM POSITIVE • Auto Partner: October sales growth d...
HEADLINES: • Turkish Airlines: buy the dip (upgraded to BUY) • Cimsa: 3Q25 financial results review POSITIVE • Tupras: 3Q25 results – net income beats expectations NEUTRAL • Isbank: 3Q25 highlights – slower margin rebound and 11% miss vs.to our estimate • Elm: 3Q25 financial results review NEGATIVE • Arabian Drilling: 3Q25 results NEUTRAL • Arabian Drilling: receives recalls for three land rigs POSITIVE • Akcansa: 3Q25 conference call takeaways • CEZ: nationalisation in draft government plan, bu...
EME Equity Market – October 2025 Hungarian BUX leads in October, Türkiye and Greece lag. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.5% mom in EUR terms and 1.8% mom in USD terms in October. The Hungarian BUX was the top performer, adding 9.1% mom in EUR terms; followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.9% mom) and the Romanian BET (+5.4% mom) (in EUR terms). The Czech PX was also in the green (+2.8% mom in EUR terms). The Greek ASE and the Turkish ISE30 (-1.9% mom and -1.1% mom, in EUR terms, respectively) both los...
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: 3Q25 very solid; 20%+ ROE delivery; key catalyst will be M&A decisions NEUTRAL • Komercni Banka: 3Q25 beat driven purely by positive LLPs balance, still no breakthrough in NII performance NEUTRAL • ING BSK: posts solid 3Q25 results NEUTRAL • mBank: 3Q25 bottom line misses estimates, but purely on higher tax and FX mortgage saga provisions NEUTRAL • Kruk: 3Q25 results a mixed bag – recoveries strong, revenues down, no breakthrough in Spain NEUTRAL • Jeronimo Martins: beat...
HEADLINES: • Hidroelectrica: water should yield more (SELL - transfer of coverage) • MONETA Money Bank: posts solid 3Q25 results NEUTRAL • Orange Polska: 3Q25 results – EBITDAaL up 4% yoy, 2% above the consensus; 2025E guidance reiterated POSITIVE • Kety: full 3Q25 results fully in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • Sarantis: 3Q trading update slightly below expectations; FY25E guidance maintained NEGATIVE • MOL: to become a holding company NEUTRAL • Warsaw Stock Exchange: CEO favours Poland ...
We transfer coverage of Hidroelectrica with a SELL and a 12M price target (PT) of RON 115.4/share, implying 5% downside. Hidroelectrica is the largest power producer in Romania, with 6.3 GW of hydro capacity, and one of the largest power suppliers in the country, with a c.15% market share. In 1H25, weak hydrological conditions weighed on its output, with net hydro production down 27% yoy and 30% below the 10Y historical average (9.0 TWh). While we assume a hydro volume normalisation in 2026-27E,...
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