Report
Hidroelectrica : Lower volumes, declining LT power prices, less favourable revenue mix and higher capex trigger a stock downgrade
Hidroelectrica’s net electricity generation declined by 23% y-o-y in 9M 2025 due to a severe hydrological drought, which led to a 15% downward revision to the company’s FY net profit guidance. Given i/ weaker hydro production and limited capacity additions; ii/ a downward-sloping forward curve, reflecting LT Romanian power price convergence towards Western European benchmarks; and iii/ a shift in the revenue mix towards the lower-margin supply business, we downgrade Hidroelectrica to Underperform with a new TP of RON 100, implying downside potential of >15%. Weaker earnings generation should also result in lower dividends, even assuming a payout ratio of 98%.
Underlying
HIDROELECTRICA S.A.
Provider
Oddo BHF
Oddo Securities provides securities brokerage and research services. The company offers equity, economic, and derivatives research and credit analysis services. It focuses on insurance, automotive, building materials, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications, information technology, and agri-food industries.
Daniela Popov
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