HEADLINES: • Banca Transilvania: NIM resilience and strong loan book expansion the key positives of 1Q24 bottom-line beat, on non-recurring revenue, low provisions and a one-off POSITIVE • ADNOC Drilling: 1Q24 results – new venture and updated dividend policy POSITIVE • Otokar: lacklustre 1Q24 results, but strong backlog NEGATIVE • TBC Bank: 1Q24 results and conference call NEUTRAL • Elm: mixed 1Q24 financial results NEGATIVE • Isbank: 1Q24 highlights – margin pressure worsening • Polish banks: ...
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • Air Astana Group: a cash-accretive airline from the heart of Eurasia (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Elm: still a digital champion (stays HOLD) • PZU: reports solid 4Q23; high DPS potential POSITIVE • CEZ: misses on 4Q23 net profit, tepid 2024E guidance NEGATIVE • Benefit Systems: strong 4Q23 beats expectations, but company trims 2024E guidance for card additions abroad NEUTRAL • Teknosa: mixed results in 4Q23 NEGATIVE • CA Immo: 4Q23 – all about the disposals POSITIVE • Brisa: 4Q2...
We maintain our HOLD rating on Elm, with an updated 12M price target (PT) of SAR 995, which offers almost no additional upside (1%). We continue to view Elm as the digital champion in Saudi Arabia, and a key player behind the Saudi Vision 2030 digital initiatives. It trades at a 38.4x 2025E P/E, a 61% premium to its global IT peers. In our view, the premium is well deserved, thanks to the company’s superior growth and margins vs. its global IT peers, as well as its robust business model. Despite...
HEADLINES: • Electrica: takeaways from the FY23 earnings call NEGATIVE • Elm: 4Q23 conference call takeaways NEUTRAL • OTE: planning to spin off its mobile infrastructure POSITIVE • OMV: acquires retail sites in Austria and Slovakia NEUTRAL • InPost: 4Q23E preview – adjusted EBITDA growth of 41% yoy expected (due on 28 March)
HEADLINES: • Elm: strong 4Q23 financial results POSITIVE • Elm: signs three MoUs at LEAP 2024, to boost tourism and healthcare in Saudi Arabia POSITIVE • Inter Cars: 4Q23 preliminary net profit misses our forecast by 32% NEGATIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (4-10 March) • Akcansa: proposes dividend almost in line with our estimate NEUTRAL • PZU: 4Q23E preview (due on 21 March) • Short News (SNN)
HEADLINES: • Pegasus Airlines: 4Q23 – decent end to another very good year NEUTRAL • Ford Otosan: strong set of results in 4Q23 POSITIVE • ONE United Properties: FY23 – ramping up, with almost 1k units sold in 2023 • Alkaloid: 4Q23 – reaping the benefits of recent investments • Alkaloid: rating and price target changes • European oil and gas monthly: February 2024 – return of the crack • Transgaz: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call POSITIVE • Auto Partner: February sales growth accelerates...
EME Equity Market – January 2024 Market performance – Turkey off to the races in January. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in the first month of the year. There was a V-shape recovery in the Turkish ISE30, with the index adding 12.6% mom in EUR terms. The Greek ASE and Hungarian BUX indices also reported strong performances, adding 5.7% and 5.3% mom, respectively, in EUR terms. The Czech PX Index advanced by 2.2% mom, while the Romanian BET 0.9% mom in EUR...
HEADLINES: • Orange Polska: safe dividend haven (stays BUY) • Logo Yazilim: recent newsflow supportive of our investment case • Magyar Telekom: to implement annual inflation-based fee adjustment as of 1 March 2024 POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: Municipal Appeals Board suspends execution of recent decision regarding increased fees NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: Frostpunk 2 gameplay trailer released; game to be available on PC Game Pass NEUTRAL • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: announces new contract in Dubai P...
EME Equity Market – December 2023 Market performance – Poland outperforms in December. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 1.9% mom in USD in December. The WIG20 Index continues to perform well in the post-elections environment and reported the strongest performance in our core region, adding 5.9% mom in EUR terms. There was also a strong performance from the Romanian BET and Hungarian BUX indices, adding 4.4% and 4.1% mom, respectively, in EUR terms; while there was a relat...
HEADLINES: • Romanian banks: banking in the land of Dracula (Banca Transilvania stays BUY and BRD-GSG stays HOLD - transfer of coverage) • EME Macro/Strategy: Hungary - heading into a brighter 2024E • 4iG: key takeaways from the 3Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • CEZ: completes sale of stake in AKCEZ Enerji NEUTRAL • ING BSK: receives approval for dividend payment NEUTRAL • Kazatomprom: signs contract with Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation to supply uranium • Elm: announces completion of discussio...
EME Equity Market – October 2023 Market performance – election results prompt stellar market reaction in Poland; sell-off in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.0% mom in USD in October. Poland staged a massive rebound, post the elections, with the WIG20 advancing 16.4% mom in EUR terms. Apart from Turkey, where October was a sell-off, with the ISE30 declining 13.7% mom in EUR terms, there were relatively muted performances everywhere else (BUX +2.1% / PX +0.4% / B...
HEADLINES: • Erste Bank: posts solid 3Q23 - beat on higher and strong quality mix of revenues POSITIVE • Budimex: strong 3Q23 results, EBIT 13% above our forecast, despite negative one-offs POSITIVE • Asseco Poland: 3Q23 preliminary net profit of PLN 112m, 3% above the consensus POSITIVE • Romania macro: fiscal package law published and now in force • OMV Petrom/Romgaz: Government raises royalties; change to affect new & renewed concession agreements NEUTRAL • Borouge: 3Q23 results - EBITDA be...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
HEADLINES: • Elm: digital enabler (HOLD - initiation of coverage) • Turk Telekom: 2Q23 results POSITIVE • Pegasus Airlines: 2Q23 - high RASK and costs under control drive stellar profitability POSITIVE • Telecom Egypt: 2Q23 results review - EBITDA up 30% yoy, 7% above the consensus NEUTRAL • Telecom Egypt: key takeaways from the 2Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • DIGI Communications: key takeaways from the 2Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • CEZ: IndMin says "no reason for quick action" on CEZ split NEUTRAL...
We initiate coverage of Elm with a HOLD rating and a SAR 712 price target (PT), which offers just 4% upside from the current price. The company operates in the Saudi IT sector, with a focus on developing digital products and services, by partnering with ministries and other public entities. It trades at a 32.7x 2024E P/E, a 62% premium to its global IT peers. In our view, the premium is well deserved, thanks to the company’s superior growth and margins vs. its global IT peers, as well as its rob...
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