reports
- Michael Roeg
(Sponsored) Triodos Bank - Discounting a tougher interest rate environ...
We have lowered our earnings estimates based on a cooling interest rate environment, cost inflation in general, and higher than expected legal costsThe impact on adjusted EPS is resp. -6%, -10%, and -19% for 2024/25/26We introduce a target price of EUR 34 (previously target valuation range of EUR 35-49), and a Hold rating (previously no rating)
- Michael Roeg
(Sponsored) Triodos Bank - H1-24 broadly in line, interest environment...
Topline and adjusted profits beat our estimates, one-offs were also higherManagement expects interest margins to be affected by upcoming rate cutsCEO Rijpkema will step down at the end of his term in 2025We expect to lower our estimates, target price under review
- Michael Roeg
(Sponsored) Triodos Bank - As Good as It Gets
After record top-line and profits in 2023, further progress looks challenging because growth in NII slowed down faster than we had expected.In response, we lower our top-line estimates for FY24/25/26 by 6-8%. The impact on profits is bigger as we kept our opex estimates broadly unchanged. We cut our EPS estimates by 18%, 22%, and 23% respectively.We set our new target valuation range at EUR 35-49 (from EUR 46-59).
- Michael Roeg
(Sponsored) Triodos Bank - After strong 2023, slowdown in 2024, divide...
H2-23 shy of expectations, yet a very strong beat in dividendIn H2-23, total income of EUR 236m fell 2% short of our estimates. The strong sequential improvement in net interest income in H1-23 (+EUR 36m h/h) clearly leveled off in H2-23 (+EUR 4m h/h).Operating costs of EUR 170m were EUR 1m higher than expected due to EUR 1m higher exceptional costs, so underlying it was in line. The C/I ratio of 72.3% exceeded our estimate of 70.1% because of the miss on top-line.Profit before provisions amount...
- Michael Roeg
(Sponsored) Triodos Bank - Fundamentals on the Rise
New records in top line and profits and there is more in storeIn H1-23, Triodos set new records in topline and profits. Total income, adjusted PPP, and adjusted net profit grew by respectively 32%, 144%, and 76% y/y, and amounted to respectively 62%, 77%, and 66% of the respective FY22 results. We expect H2-23 to be strong as well because of a benign interest rate environment, lower exceptional costs, and efficiency gains from restructuring that gradually start to kick in.Based on better than ex...
- Michael Roeg
(Sponsored) Triodos Bank - Strong H1-23 profit growth
H1-23 profit rose 87% to EUR 35m, roughly in line with our estimate of EUR 37mResults benefited from a more supportive interest rate environment and limited increase in costsCapital ratios are well above hurdle rates, and the company will pay a EUR 1.23 interest dividend (50% payout)Please read our full note for more details.
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