NSR Policy: The Interconnections of ACP, Spectrum, Title II, and the S...

In this weekend update, we reconsider our initial takes on several events last week and how they could be affected by events this week. Specifically, we look at the interplay of the FCC’s Title II Order, the Second Circuit opinion upholding New York State’s mandate for ISPs to offer low-income households a low-cost broadband offering, Senator Cantwell’s draft spectrum bill, and how all are affected by the end of ACP funding in the next few weeks.

NSR Policy Key Policy Controversies Heading into Earnings: ACP, NN7/S...

In this special weekend update, we summarize the status of the key policy controversies that may be relevant to investors during earnings season.

NSR Policy Update: Will ACP be Saved by Discharge Petition?

Tuesday, Rep. Yvette Clarke (D–New York) filed a discharge petition calling for a floor vote on the ACP Extension Act. The petition requires 218 signatures to be successful. In this note we analyze whether this effort is likely to be successful.

NSR Policy: The DoD’s Spectrum Game

This week we cover spectrum issues, with a particular focus on the implications of last week’s Department of Defense (DoD) report on the feasibility of sharing the 3.1 – 3.45GHz band with wireless carriers. Our New Street colleagues published a note describing the report and its implications for DISH/SATS, T, VZ, and TMUS.

SATS: Shuffling Assets and Cash

Last week, EchoStar released its 10-K’s for DBS, Dish Networks, and Hughes. With these filings, we can see all the movements of cash between entities in the fourth quarter, and most of the shuffling in the first quarter. In this note, we review these cash transfers as well as the internal spectrum sale that helped fund Networks through the first quarter.

DoD spectrum report released – implications for Dish, Verizon, AT&T, a...

The DoD released its report on the feasibility of sharing the 3.1 – 3.45GHz band with Wireless Carriers. The report concludes that sharing is feasible if certain conditions are met. It also makes clear that meeting the conditions will be challenging. The ability of carriers to share the band, and the timing of its availability have important implications for the value of Dish’s spectrum and for the businesses of the national carriers generally. We cover both in this brief report.

NSR Policy: Net Neutrality: It’s Back!

This week, we focus on the FCC’s upcoming Net Neutrality order, which is likely to be made public on Thursday and voted on April 25. The big picture is that the item will be approved on a 3-2 vote and largely resemble the 2015 order. As we have been in the past, we are skeptical that the rules will be material to the financial performance of the ISPs but there are a few interesting nuances to this iteration.

NSR Policy: FCC Dings Nexstar for Exceeding Ownership Limits but Real ...

Last week, the FCC ruled that Nexstar’s relationship with Mission Broadcasting’s WPIX in New York City violated its rules and the national broadcast ownership cap. In this note, we discuss how this decision reflects the priorities of the current FCC, but also broader themes related to the decline of linear television and upcoming changes to both the market and the video regulatory environment.

NSR Policy: State of Play of BEAD

In 2024-25, one of the biggest events in the telecom sector will be how the federal government and states spend the $42.5 billion Congress appropriated for deployment to unserved and underserved locations as part of the BEAD program. In this Weekend Update, we provide a state of play on the program, including outlining the process going forward, the timing, the Fiber v. FWA debate, what has worked, what challenges lie ahead, the election impact (or lack thereof) and the quick take from the compa...

NSR Policy: ACP Increases Supporters, Not Odds

In this Weekend Update, we start by analyzing the latest DC machinations regarding the future, if any, of the Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP), including: - Why the over 500% increase in the number of co-sponsors for an ACP extension bill is not indicative of an increase in support; - How the March letters to ACP customers might provide some early indications of what will happen in May and June if funding expires; and - How the calvary of an ACP and USF reform bill is over the horizon but t...

Wedbush Morning Call - Mar 05 2024 6:51AM

Guidance Cut Not Likely To Turn Many Doubters To Believers

NSR Policy: Congressional Signals on ACP and Tax Bill

In this Weekend Update, we focus on the signs that Congress provided this past week on two issues that directly affect the finances of ISPs: the future of ACP and taxes. As to the ACP, we discuss how extension proponents apparently failed in efforts to include an ACP extension appropriation in the recently adopted short-term budget compromise. That should surprise no one but it indicates that an extension remains an uphill struggle. Still, that possibility remains on the table but there will be ...

SATS: Model Update

This note covers updates to the model following consolidated EchoStar results. We increased wireless capex on the assumption that the company will raise new capital (if they don’t, capex will fall dramatically). We increased our estimate for funding required to get to mid-2026 to $3BN. We updated our valuation to $98 / share. We will have another update out once we get the Dish and DBS 10-Ks.

SATS: Quick thoughts following the call

We published a note on results last night. In this brief note, we cover what we learned about debt exchanges and capital raising (not much), 2024 FCF expectations, trends in Retail Wireless, the process of moving Boost traffic to the Dish Network, the risk to the value of the spectrum portfolio if final build-out targets are not met, and the prospect of Dish selling spectrum.