During the Labour Day holiday (1-5 May), Macau's visitor arrivals significantly beat the government's expectation. Retail and catering sales showed a modest improvement in terms of yoy growth compared with the Chinese New Year holiday, while home appliance sales continued to benefit from the trade-in programme, with premium products demonstrating robust growth. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the China consumer sector. Our top picks include CR Beer, Mengniu, and Moutai.
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property Market watch around May holiday: New-home sales recovery weakens in Apr 25; the trend of Hong Kong resident travelling north remains strong. Sector Consumer Strong Macau visitations and robust home appliance sales during Labour Day Holiday. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ/BUY/Rp2,540/Target:...
Moutai’s 1Q25 revenue increased 11% yoy, tracking ahead of its full-year growth target of 9%. By product, revenue of Moutai liquor rose 10% yoy, while revenue of series liquor grew much faster at 18% yoy. By end-1Q25, contract liabilities decreased 8% both yoy and qoq. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of Rmb1,722.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/HOLD/HK$6.79/Target: HK$7.00) CCB delivered disappointing 1Q25 results as net profit declined 4.0%, dragged by NIM compression and tepid fee income. Furthermore, revenue growth was no longer supported by trading gains, as yields rebounded during 1Q25. Asset quality was a silver lining as CCB highlighted the sequential improvement in the retail and property developer segments. Management also noted that tariff risk is manageable in terms of...
GREATER CHINA Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/HOLD/HK$6.79/Target: HK$7.00): 1Q25: Earnings miss due to weaker NIM and fee income; tariff risk is limited. Downgrade to HOLD. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/HOLD/HK$6.10/Target: HK$6.60): 1Q25: In line; cautious outlook amid rising curtailment rates and upcoming policy shift. China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$44.50/Target: HK$49.00): 1Q25: Earnings down 2.1% yoy on weaker trading gains. Estun Automation (002747 CH/SELL/Rmb19.17/Target: Rmb...
The Politburo meeting held on 25 April emphasised a more detailed focus on improving incomes and boosting service consumption. In the China consumer sector, we prefer companies that: a) demonstrate strong cost control capabilities and are able to enhance operational efficiencies; and b) focus primarily on the domestic market, given the ongoing uncertainties related to the US tariffs. Our top picks include CR Beer, Mengniu, and Moutai. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
2024 revenue was in line with the preliminary results announcement while net profit was slightly above. By end-4Q24, contract liabilities decreased 32% yoy and 3% qoq. For 2025, the company aims to achieve about 9% yoy growth in total revenue, which is in line with our forecasts. Moutai’s full-year dividend payout ratio was 75%, in line with its 2024-26 dividend payout plan. Maintain BUY. Cut target price by 4% to Rmb1,722.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls The HSI and MSCI China index rose 0.8% mom and 2.0% mom respectively in March, after the DeepSeek fervour passed and investors locked in profits ahead of Trump’s tariff announcement in early-April. In the face of geopolitical uncertainties and potential trade war escalations, we will keep our exposure to companies reliant on domestic demand and beneficiaries of policy support. New additions to our BUY list are CR Beer, Desay SV, JBM H...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls: Add CR Beer, Desay, JBM Healthcare, JD Logistics, Minth, WuXi App Tech and Xiaomi Corp to our BUY list. Take profit on AIA, Hansoh Pharma, JD and Zijin Mining. Sector Automobile: Weekly: Solid growth in PV sales. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao and Desay SV. IT Hardware: AI devices and AI robots to remain as key investment theme throughout 2025. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Property Management: 2024 results wr...
On 16 March, the State Council issued a plan on special initiatives to boost consumption, aiming to increase spending power by increasing income and reducing financial burdens, generate effective demand through high-quality supply, and improve the consumption environment to strengthen consumers’ willingness to spend. In the China consumer sector, we prefer Anta, CR Beer, Galaxy, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Yili. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
We do not expect a strong consumption momentum for the upcoming CNY holiday, but expect home appliance, Macau gaming, movie and retail to be the bright spots. We prefer Anta, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Sands in China’s consumer space.
GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation Airlines: The three major airlines’ 2024 preliminary earnings estimates were below expectations – still loss-making. Healthcare TCM: GPO price pressure continues to cloud 2025’s growth outlook. Consumer CNY preview: Expect home appli...
We believe the baijiu industry will remain under pressure in 2025, given the ongoing macro headwinds. Against this backdrop, baijiu companies remain relatively conservative toward 2025, while they prioritise maintaining channel healthiness and stabilising wholesale prices as their key tasks. We lower the 2025 revenue and earnings forecasts for our baijiu coverage by 5-8%/5-9%. Downgrade the baijiu sector to UNDERWEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply Positive signs despite weak credit demand. Sector Baijiu Industry remains under pressure; conservative tone toward 2025; channel healthiness and price stability the key focuses. Downgrade the baijiu sector to UNDERWEIGHT. Metals and Mining ...
Moutai’s 3Q24 revenue growth was in line with the annual target. We are confident that Moutai will achieve its annual sales target. However, Feitian Moutai's wholesale prices should be under pressure in the near term, in our view, given the intense promotions on e-commerce platforms during the 11.11 shopping festival. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of Rmb2,174.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Internet The key concerns of investors include the sustainability of the recent rally and potential fundamental changes upon policy rollout. We think a valuation repair is underway with the upcoming 11.11 campaign and 3Q/4Q24 results release as a critical juncture. Investors are also becoming increasingly optimistic on mega-cap names such as Tencent, Meituan, Alibaba and JD in view of a favourable regulatory backdrop and stabilised competitive environment. Maintain MARK...
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet: Key takeaways from marketing trip. Results ENN Energy Holdings (2688 HK/HOLD/HK$57.90/Target: HK$58.40): 3Q24 operational data: Largely in line with guidance; 9M24 retail gas sales up 4.8% yoy. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK/BUY/HK$14.38/Target: HK$23.00): 3Q24: Earnings in line with estimates. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$23.00. Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial & Commercial (600872 CH/BUY/Rmb23.87/Target: Rmb28.40): 3Q24: Channel adjustment is bearing fruit; expect revenue ...
China consumer stocks under our coverage have rebounded by 33% on average since end-Sep 24, but current valuations are still undemanding. With direct policy support and a potential wealth effect, we believe China consumers are restoring their confidence. China consumer companies should see better earnings visibility in 2024, which should support further re-rating. We suggest investors refocus on the China theme in the near term. We prefer Anta, Galaxy, Haidilao, Haier, Mengniu and Midea. Maintai...
GREATER CHINA Sector Consumer Golden Week: Tourism and home appliances the bright spots; refocus on China theme. Internet Government policy rollout to boost consumption and drive valuation repair. Update Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/HOLD/HK$340.80/Target: HK$355.00) Further valuation re-rating requires more sustainable AD...
For Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, tourism, duty-free shopping and home appliance consumption were the bright spots. Domestic tourism and duty-free shopping had the strongest recovery among mini breaks this year. For the home appliance sector, trade-in policies are beginning to stimulate consumer demand. We prefer companies that: a) are disciplined in business operation; b) have good prospects in overseas business; and c) maintain healthy inventories. We prefer Anta, Galaxy, Haidilao, Haier, Midea...
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