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Shirley Wang Xueyi ... (+2)
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

Greater China Consumer: Golden Week -- Tourism and home appliances the...

China consumer stocks under our coverage have rebounded by 33% on average since end-Sep 24, but current valuations are still undemanding. With direct policy support and a potential wealth effect, we believe China consumers are restoring their confidence. China consumer companies should see better earnings visibility in 2024, which should support further re-rating. We suggest investors refocus on the China theme in the near term. We prefer Anta, Galaxy, Haidilao, Haier, Mengniu and Midea. Maintai...

Jonathan Koh ... (+9)
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kampon Akaravarinchai
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Ming San Soong
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Stevanus Juanda
  • Wei Xiang Ku

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, October 09, 2024

GREATER CHINA Sector Consumer Golden Week: Tourism and home appliances the bright spots; refocus on China theme. Internet Government policy rollout to boost consumption and drive valuation repair. Update Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/HOLD/HK$340.80/Target: HK$355.00) Further valuation re-rating requires more sustainable AD...

02313 SHENZHOU INTERNATIONAL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
AS7 ANTA SPORTS PRODUCTS LTD.
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
CPF CHAROEN POKPHAND FOODS PUBLIC CO. LTD.
600132 CHONGQING BREWERY CO.LTD CLASS A
000858 WULIANGYE YIBIN CO. LTD. CLASS A
00388 HONG KONG EXCHANGES & CLEARING LTD.
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
EZQ CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY CO. LTD.
02331 LI NING COMPANY LIMITED
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
002230 IFLYTEK CO. LTD. CLASS A
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
600872 JONJEE HI-TECH INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL HOLDING CO. LTD. CLASS A
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
000333 MIDEA GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
603288 FOSHAN HAITIAN FLAVOURING & FOOD CO. LTD. CLASS A
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
0168 TSINGTAO BREWERY CO. LTD. CLASS H
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
06862 HAIDILAO INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.
MUST MANULIFE US REAL ESTATE INV
00780 TONGCHENG-ELONG HOLDINGS LIMITED
TGIF 1933 INDUSTRIES
2013 WEIMOB INC
1368 XTEP INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS
01876 BUDWEISER BREWING CO. APAC LTD.
6186 CHINA FEIHE LTD
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
OXMU PRIME US REIT
09618 JD.COM INC. CLASS A
KORE KEPPEL PACIFIC OAK US REIT
MNSO MINISO GROUP HOLDING ADS (N SHARES)
BUKA BUKALAPAK.COM PT TBK
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
09922 JIUMAOJIU INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD.
09888 BAIDU INC
TSVT 2SEVENTY BIO INC
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
Z29 029 GROUP SE
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
ITMAX ITMAX SYSTEMS BHD
Shirley Wang Xueyi ... (+2)
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

Greater China Consumer: Mid-Autumn Festival: Strongest tourism and dut...

For Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, tourism, duty-free shopping and home appliance consumption were the bright spots. Domestic tourism and duty-free shopping had the strongest recovery among mini breaks this year. For the home appliance sector, trade-in policies are beginning to stimulate consumer demand. We prefer companies that: a) are disciplined in business operation; b) have good prospects in overseas business; and c) maintain healthy inventories. We prefer Anta, Galaxy, Haidilao, Haier, Midea...

Shirley Wang Xueyi ... (+2)
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

Greater China Consumer: 2Q24/1H24 results wrap-up: Lowered expectation...

After the 2Q24/1H24 results, we are now more cautious on China’s consumer sector. For consumer discretionary, domestic operations were impacted by weak offline traffic. Companies remained concrete on overseas expansion and became more disciplined on cost control to protect the margin level amid the slower top-line growth. For consumer staple, we observed slower product mix upgrade. Companies adopted proactive shipment control to manage channel inventories. Operating efficiency improvement became...

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+9)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Jack Goh Tooan Orng
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Kampon Akaravarinchai
  • Ken Lee
  • Nurul Nazira Binti Abdullah
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Stevanus Juanda

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, September 13, 2024

GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales rebound by 14.7% yoy, beating estimates. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Desay SV, and Geely. Top SELL: GAC. Consumer 2Q24/1H24 results wrap-up: Lowered expectations; disciplined operations matter. INDONESIA Update Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ/BUY/Rp680/Target: Rp900) ...

MAJOR MAJOR CINEPLEX GROUP PCL
600690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS A
02313 SHENZHOU INTERNATIONAL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
AS7 ANTA SPORTS PRODUCTS LTD.
300014 EVE ENERGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
600132 CHONGQING BREWERY CO.LTD CLASS A
000858 WULIANGYE YIBIN CO. LTD. CLASS A
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
EZQ CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY CO. LTD.
02331 LI NING COMPANY LIMITED
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
EGH EUREKA GROUP HOLDINGS
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
002340 GEM CO. LTD. CLASS A
5Z0 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
01316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED
000333 MIDEA GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
603288 FOSHAN HAITIAN FLAVOURING & FOOD CO. LTD. CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
01585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
0168 TSINGTAO BREWERY CO. LTD. CLASS H
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
06862 HAIDILAO INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
1368 XTEP INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
01876 BUDWEISER BREWING CO. APAC LTD.
6186 CHINA FEIHE LTD
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
MNSO MINISO GROUP HOLDING ADS (N SHARES)
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
Z29 029 GROUP SE
IOIPG IOI PROPERTIES GROUP BHD
02015 LI AUTO INC
600699 JOYSON ELECTRONICS CORP
Jo Yee Ng ... (+3)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH): 1H24: Revenue growth ahead of annual targ...

Moutai’s 1H24 revenue growth is ahead of its annual target of 15%. Feitian Moutai’s wholesale price showed strong recovery in Aug 24, thanks to strict shipment control. Looking ahead, the sustainability of wholesale price recovery could become a swing factor, given increasing shipments leading up to the holidays. Moutai aims to raise the dividend payout ratio to >75% in 2024-26. We think the increasing shareholder returns will support share price. Maintain BUY. Target price: Rmb2,174.00.

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+6)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Ken Lee
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

Greater China Daily: Friday, August 9, 2024

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile China’s PV insurance registrations rebounded by 17% yoy and 6% wow to 471,000 units in 29 Jul-4 Aug 24, beating expectations on increased subsidies. However, Li Auto and Xpeng saw wow sales decline during the week. PEV market share edged up 0.6ppt wow to 48.4% last week, but exceeded 50% in Jul 24, the first time ever on a monthly basis. China’s auto exports grew 19% yoy but fell 14% mom in Jun 24. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Desay SV. Top SELL...

Arsit Pamaranont ... (+13)
  • Arsit Pamaranont
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Kampon Akaravarinchai
  • Ken Lee
  • Kong Ho Meng
  • Paula Ruth
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Thanawat Thangchadakorn

Regional Morning Notes - Friday, August 09, 2024

GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: PV sales rebound by 17% yoy on increased subsidies. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Desay SV. Top SELL: XPeng. Shipping and Ports: Freight rates peaked but forward decline is priced in. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT and upgraded CSH to BUY. Results Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial & Commercial (600872 CH/BUY/Rmb19.80/Target: Rmb27.00): 2Q24: Results miss expectations; condiment business under pressure. Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH/BUY/Rmb1,430.69/Target: Rmb2,...

Jo Yee Ng ... (+3)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

China Consumer: 618 overall GMV down 7% yoy. Channel shift to livestre...

2024’s 618 overall GMV was down by 7% yoy. By channel, livestreaming platforms continued to gain momentum, with GMV up 12% yoy, while the cosmetics category saw a significant shift towards livestreaming platforms. By brand, domestic cosmetics and sportswear brands recorded strong performances. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on China’s consumer sector.

Jo Yee Ng ... (+3)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

China Consumer: Dragon Boat Festival: Consumer services, experiential ...

During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, consumer services, experiential spending (eg tourism) and lower-tier cities continued to lead the growth. For China’s consumer sector, we keep Anta, CTGDF, Haidilao, Haier and Shenzhou as our most preferred stocks. At the same time, we add Miniso but remove CR Beer and Midea from the stock picks. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on China’s consumer sector.

Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad ... (+10)
  • Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Kasemsun Koonnara
  • Limartha Adhiputra
  • Llelleythan Tan Tan
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Wei Xiang Ku

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, June 12, 2024

GREATER CHINA Sector Consumer Dragon Boat Festival: Consumer services, experiential spending, and lower-tier cities lead growth. INDONESIA Update Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ/HOLD/Rp4,300/Target: Rp4,300) Issuance of new shares to complete the divestment process. MALAYSIA Sector Telecommunications 1Q24 earnings up 14% yoy on the back ...

Jo Yee Ng ... (+3)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

China Consumer: Tourism and catering strong performances during the La...

During the Labour Day holiday, tourism and catering continued to record strong performances, while DF per capita spending showed a downward trend. We reiterate our key theses for the consumer sector, highlighting companies with: a) overseas expansion or turnaround prospects, b) upside potential of improving operating efficiency, or c) near-term catalysts. We keep Anta, CR Beer, CTGDF, Haidilao, Haier, Midea and Shenzhou as our most preferred stocks, but remove Galaxy from the stock picks. Mainta...

Jo Yee Ng ... (+3)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH): 1Q24: Earnings up 16% yoy; key emphasis o...

Moutai’s attributable net profit grew 16% yoy in 1Q24, with net profit margin down 1ppt yoy due to a higher tax and selling expense ratio. Looking ahead, Moutai aims to achieve a comprehensive penetration of terminal point-of-sales (POS) in 2024 and lift the ASP of non-Feitian series by launching new products. We remain confident on the net profit margin expansion for 2024, due to higher ASP and continuous expansion in the direct sales channel. Maintain BUY. Target price: Rmb2,488.

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+13)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Ceilica Su Rui
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ken Lee
  • Ming San Soong
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Sunny Chen
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Greater China Daily: Monday, April 29, 2024

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile We raise 2024 forecasts on China’s PV sales growth and PEV sales growth from +8%/+21% to +10%/+24% on bigger-than-expected subsidies for the cash-for-clunker program and zero downpayment auto loans. Meanwhile, we lift the target prices of BYD, Geely, GWM, GAC and Yadea to HK$160.00/HK$13.00/HK$13.50/HK$3.30 /HK$20.00 respectively. Upgrade GWM from HOLD to BUY, and upgrade GAC from SELL to HOLD. Top BUY: CATL, Geely and Yadea. Top SELL: BYD, Li Auto and XPeng. ...

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+19)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Ceilica Su Rui
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Jun Sian Tan
  • Ken Lee
  • Ming San Soong
  • Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Sunny Chen
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Regional Morning Notes - Monday, April 29, 2024

GREATER CHINA Results China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$5.72/Target: HK$6.40): 1Q24: Below expectations; low wind speed weighed on performance. COSCO SHIPPING Ports (1199 HK/BUY/HK$4.62/Target: HK$6.75): 1Q24: Results in line; steady performance in a seasonally slow quarter with headwinds. Dian Diagnostics (300244 CH/BUY/Rmb14.13/Target: Rmb18.50): 1Q24: ICL revenue growth satisfactory; esoteric testing and self-developed product segments remain 2024’s key growth drivers. Foshan Haitian Flavou...

Jo Yee Ng ... (+3)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

China Consumer: Focus on four key theses for the sector.

In this report, we have summarised what we read from consumer companies’ 2023 results, the 2024 outlook and recent updates. We think companies: a) with overseas expansion or turnaround prospects, b) that have upside potential of improving operating efficiency, c) that will benefit from near-term catalysts (eg event-driven), and d) have increasing dividend payout will outperform. Anta, CR Beer, CTGDF, Galaxy, Haidilao, Haier, Midea and Shenzhou are our most preferred stocks. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.

Jo Yee Ng ... (+3)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH): 2023: Earnings up 19% yoy; targets 15% yo...

Moutai’s attributable net profit grew 19% yoy in 2023. We believe near-term sentiment may be influenced by: a) industry’s low season, and b) downturn in Moutai’s wholesale prices due to an increase in Moutai’s channel shipment. However, we think the company’s growth prospect remains intact, driven by shipment volume expansion and higher ASP. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of Rmb2,488.

Jo Yee Ng ... (+7)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Kate Luang
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

Greater China Daily: Wednesday, April 3, 2024

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Small-Mid Cap Biweekly Eyeing re-rating for refrigerant suppliers as AC dealers front-load for peak sales in 2Q24. Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$4.85/Target: HK$6.00) 2023: Results in line; expect revenue headwinds to persist in 2024. COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK/BUY/HK$8.44/Target: HK$10.60) 2023: Results in line; expect an upbeat 1H24 performance. Maintain BUY. Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH/BUY/Rmb1,713.99/Target: Rmb2,488.00) 2023: Earnings up ...

Jack Goh Tooan Orng ... (+15)
  • Jack Goh Tooan Orng
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Johnny Yum
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Kate Luang
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Kong Ho Meng
  • Malaysia Research Team
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Singapore Research Team
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Stevanus Juanda
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Vincent Khoo Boo Aik

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, April 03, 2024

GREATER CHINA Strategy Small-Mid Cap Biweekly Eyeing re-rating for refrigerant suppliers as AC dealers front-load for peak sales in 2Q24. Results China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$4.85/Target: HK$6.00) 2023: Results in line; expect revenue headwinds to persist in 2024. COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK/BUY/HK$8.44/Target: HK$10.60) 2023: Results in line; expect an upbeat 1H24 performance. Maintain BUY. Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH/BUY/Rmb1,713.99/Target: Rmb2,488.00) 2023: Earnings up ...

Jo Yee Ng ... (+3)
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

China Consumer: Tourism, catering and movie consumption: Strong perfor...

During the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, tourism, both domestic and outbound, catering and movie consumption put up strong performances. For the consumer sector, we prefer discretionary to staple, and Macau gaming in the discretionary space, given the strong recovery momentum of Macau tourism and moderate hike in opex. Galaxy is our top pick in Macau gaming sector, given its net cash position amid the higher interests. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.

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