reports
- Cedric Rossi
Safilo: encouraging start to the year despite macro uncertainty
The final FY24 results unveiled yesterday were in line with the pre-announced numbers on 28th January. Safilo recorded a positive start to 2025 in both Europe and North America, ahead of March, which is key for the Q1 performance. Although management refrained from providing detailed FY25 targets,
- Cedric Rossi
US eyewear: Trumping tariffs
With existing duties relatively low compared to other consumer categories, the potential new tariffs that could be imposed by incoming President Trump are naturally sparking concern across the US optical industry. At this stage, we are optimistic about the sector's ability to navigate tariffs: (i)
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #56
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how US tourism could drive European luxury sales, especially if Trump imp
- Loic Morvan
Time not yet right to revisit The Swatch Group!
Yesterday, the Swiss group released dismal 2024 results with sales down 12% and EBIT declining 74%, implying EBIT margin of just 4.5%. We expect 2025 sales to gain close to 5% with an EBIT margin at 7.4% (still way below the 2023 level of 15%). We maintain our Neutral recommendation with a CHF180PT
- Loic Morvan
LVMH 2024 EBIT below expectations but an encouraging start to the year
As expected, LVMH' 2024 results were not a good vintage, both at the top line and profitability levels. FY sales were stable on the whole (+1% in Q4) while EBIT margin declined 340bp to 23.1% (cs:24.1%). Nevertheless, we expect 2025 to be better with a 4% organic sales increase. Buy reiterated with
- Cedric Rossi
Safilo: another good surprise on Q4 margins
Preliminary FY24 numbers unveiled yesterday confirmed that Q4 trends were on par with the 9M trajectory with a FX-n sales decline due to the phase-out of Jimmy Choo, and another margin beat. FCF generation was also impressive. Ahead of FY25 results due on 11th March, we stick to our scenario for fu
- Cedric Rossi
Eyewear: what caught our eyes in Q3 publications
Q3 publications were generally more mixed than previous quarters with many players flagging polarised consumer behaviour even in the traditionally defensive prescription category. Most companies were relatively optimistic about Q4 thanks to easier comparatives and a more favourable category-mix, wh
- Loic Morvan
LVMH H2 profitability more under pressure than expected
Although we are maintaining our forecast for poor FY sales (-1% organically), we are more cautious on profitability in view of a greater negative FX impact than initially expected, especially for the Wines & Spirits division. We have cut our 2024-25 earnings by 3%. New PT at EUR770 vs EUR800 pr
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #48
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at the annual Bain-Altagamma Luxury Goods study which expects a period of tur
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #47
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at the impact of Donald Trump's election. Happy reading!
Safilo Group: 1 director
A director at Safilo Group bought 25,773 shares at 0.944EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...
- Cedric Rossi
US eyewear: groups embrace the holiday season with cautious optimism
This week, National Vision (NV) and Warby Parker (WRBY) both reported positive Q3 numbers, confirming the first signs of stabilisation within the US eyewear market as the two players address different customer bases and price points. Obviously it was too early to draw conclusions from Trump's win o
- Cedric Rossi
Safilo: Q3 continuation of Q2, promising growth in October
Q3 numbers unveiled yesterday evening were a continuation of Q2 trends with continued margin improvement despite a 3.4% FX-n sales decline (flat growth ex-Jimmy Choo). During the call, management was cautiously optimistic on the back of all regions growing in October but the remainder of the quarte
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
LVMH: Q3 sales down 3%, a clear deceleration vs Q2 (+1%), mainly due t...
LVMH has reported poor Q3 sales down 3%, confirming the current deterioration in the luxury industry, especially in Mainland China. In the Fashion & Leather division, Q3 sales with the Chinese cluster were down MSD vs the HSD increase seen in H1. We cut our 2024-25 earnings by 4% implying a new
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #42
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the resolution of the ILA port strike which threatened the US holiday sho
- Cedric Rossi
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
Luxury Goods: beware of excessive optimism on China in the near term
Although most stocks in our luxury sample rebounded last week following the launch of a stimulus "bazooka" by the Chinese authorities, we expect no material improvement in China's consumption or household confidence in the near term. As such, we would not be surprised if the Chinese government were
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #41
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the endless reshuffling of European purchasing alliances among food retai
- Cedric Rossi
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
Luxury Goods: only a very slight rebound expected in H2
As expected, H1 was a poor vintage for Luxury groups. On average, our luxury groups sample achieved 1% organic sales growth, in line with Q1. Only Hermès, Moncler and Brunello Cucinelli enjoyed double-digit growth. Consequently, H1 profitability came under pressure. H2 is not expected to be much be
- Cedric Rossi
OTC hearing aid market: no worms in the Apple
Among all the innovative products presented at Monday's Apple Keynote, the AirPods Pro 2 stood out for the new OTC hearing aid capability to be included for users with mild to moderate hearing loss, representing EUR1.4bn people globally. While most hearing aid stocks and, to a lesser extent, Essilo
- Cedric Rossi
US eyewear: watch out for inflation-weary consumers
Although eyewear players operate in a durable category that enjoys a relatively defensive status, US consumers showed signs of flagging in Q2 as pent-up demand in prescription did not materialise and the sunglass category suffered subdued trends. This cautious behaviour was particularly visible amo
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