reports
- Loic Morvan
LVMH Q1 worse than expected
Q1 sales momentum at LVMH was softer than anticipated with a 3% organic sales decline vs stable sales expected by the consensus. Q1 2025 faced a still-demanding comparison basis (+3% in Q1 2024 vs +1% over FY 2024). In view of the Q1 sales release, we revise our 2025-26 earnings downwards by 9% wit
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #66
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the correlation between robust financial markets and healthy US consumer
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #65
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the impacts of US tariffs and potential retaliation strategies by foreign
- Cedric Rossi
- Loic Morvan
Luxury goods: The trend should gradually improve in 2025 after a chall...
After a poor 2024 vintage, we expect a gradual recovery during 2025, which will nevertheless remain a soft year as we anticipate an average sales increase of just 4% for our luxury groups sample (+3% excluding Hermès). Q1 is set to be challenging with a 1% average sales decline (-2% excluding Hermès
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #64
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at accelerating trends in European corporate earnings relative to those in t
- Cedric Rossi
Mister Spex: all eyes on execution of "SpexFocus" plan
When MRX announced its SpexFocus plan last summer, we commented that its initiatives would bring short-term pains before delivering long-term gains. In 2025, these short-term pains will be visible at the revenue level, while margins and FCF should show a sequential improvement thanks to the SpexFoc
- Cedric Rossi
Mister Spex: Reassuring FY24 numbers; priority for FY25 is margin impr...
Mister Spex reported this morning in-line FY sales of EUR217m (-3% YoY) reflecting the Group's decision to close all its nine International stores. On the positive side, FY aEBITDA of -EUR5.8m was less negative than anticipated by the market (-EUR7.1m). For FY25, i.e. "discount detox" and the negat
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #63
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how sub-sectors within our Consumer coverage have fared since the beginni
- Cedric Rossi
US eyewear: black tariff clouds looming over consumers
In our last report a month ago ("Trumping tariffs"), we were relatively optimistic as Donald Trump had only added a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and implemented a 30-day pause on tariffs for imports from Mexico and Canada. However, the situation has darkened since an additional 10% tariff has been
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #62
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how Trump's trade war is negatively impacting US consumer sentiment. Happ
- Cedric Rossi
US eyewear: Trumping tariffs
With existing duties relatively low compared to other consumer categories, the potential new tariffs that could be imposed by incoming President Trump are naturally sparking concern across the US optical industry. At this stage, we are optimistic about the sector's ability to navigate tariffs: (i)
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #56
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at how US tourism could drive European luxury sales, especially if Trump imp
- Cedric Rossi
Mister Spex: preliminary 2024 results broadly in line with guidance an...
Yesterday morning, Mister Spex unveiled preliminary Q4 numbers matching the company's guidance and expectations, reflecting good progress in the SpexFocus transformation programme and no negative surprises from its induced effects on the group's operating performance. Final FY24 results and FY25 ou
- Loic Morvan
LVMH 2024 EBIT below expectations but an encouraging start to the year
As expected, LVMH' 2024 results were not a good vintage, both at the top line and profitability levels. FY sales were stable on the whole (+1% in Q4) while EBIT margin declined 340bp to 23.1% (cs:24.1%). Nevertheless, we expect 2025 to be better with a 4% organic sales increase. Buy reiterated with
- Cedric Rossi
Eyewear: what caught our eyes in Q3 publications
Q3 publications were generally more mixed than previous quarters with many players flagging polarised consumer behaviour even in the traditionally defensive prescription category. Most companies were relatively optimistic about Q4 thanks to easier comparatives and a more favourable category-mix, wh
- Loic Morvan
LVMH H2 profitability more under pressure than expected
Although we are maintaining our forecast for poor FY sales (-1% organically), we are more cautious on profitability in view of a greater negative FX impact than initially expected, especially for the Wines & Spirits division. We have cut our 2024-25 earnings by 3%. New PT at EUR770 vs EUR800 pr
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #48
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at the annual Bain-Altagamma Luxury Goods study which expects a period of tur
- Cedric Rossi
Well on track to meet FY24 targets and savings in FY25-26
Whereas Q3 was clearly a transitional quarter following the launch of the group's restructuring transformation programme SpexFocus, MRX posted in-line Q3 revenue and a lower aEBITDA loss thanks to a strong GM improvement. Also, as part of SpexFocus aimed at strengthening its "Vision-as-a-service" i
- Cedric Rossi
Mister Spex: first take on Q3 results
This morning Mister Spex posted in-line Q3 revenue marked by a sharp decline in International (-17%) following future store closures, while Germany posted resilient 2% growth. The aEBITDA loss of EUR1.4m was lower than CSSe (-EUR2.7m) thanks to a solid GM expansion of 300bps. FY24 sales and margin
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
LVMH: Q3 sales down 3%, a clear deceleration vs Q2 (+1%), mainly due t...
LVMH has reported poor Q3 sales down 3%, confirming the current deterioration in the luxury industry, especially in Mainland China. In the Fashion & Leather division, Q3 sales with the Chinese cluster were down MSD vs the HSD increase seen in H1. We cut our 2024-25 earnings by 4% implying a new
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