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Benelux Morning Notes
Aalberts: Preview - steady in difficult markets. ABN AMRO: 1Q24 overshadowed by weaker capital, even if a strong set. AEGON: 1Q24 Preview (trading update). Alfen: Preview - clarity on one-off Pacto costs crucial. B&S Group: Bolt-on acquisition in Personal Care. Belgian telcos: BIPT notes that fibre cooperation negotiations not ready by 15 May. EVS: 1Q24 preview. Euronext: Another record, with Beats by Boujnah. Montea: €12m acquisition in the Port of Ghent. Staffing: Dutch Perio...
PROX PROXIMUS SA DE DROIT PUBLIC
ABN ABN AMRO BANK NV DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS
EVS EVS BROADCAST EQUIPMENT SA
RAND RANDSTAD NV
MONT MONTEA SCA
AALB AALBERTS N.V.
BRNL BRUNEL INTERNATIONAL N.V.
TWEKA TKH GROUP N.V. CERT
OBEL ORANGE BELGIUM SA
BSGR B&S GROUP S.A.
ALFEN ALFEN NV
AGN AEGON N.V.
- Bruno Cavalier
- Maissa Keskes
- Stephane Houri
HEIA HEINEKEN NV
VIE VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT SA
EDEN EDENRED SA
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
BNP BNP PARIBAS SA CLASS A
ABB ABB LTD.
SW SODEXO SA
RHM RHEINMETALL AG
KBC KBC GROUP N.V.
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
AMUN AMUNDI SA
OR L'OREAL SA
SCHP SCHINDLER HOLDING AG PREF
EZJ EASYJET PLC
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
WDP WAREHOUSES DE PAUW SCA
SHEL SHELL PLC
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
AGN AEGON N.V.
- Bruno Cavalier
- Maissa Keskes
- Stephane Houri
HEIA HEINEKEN NV
VIE VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT SA
EDEN EDENRED SA
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
BNP BNP PARIBAS SA CLASS A
ABB ABB LTD.
SW SODEXO SA
RHM RHEINMETALL AG
KBC KBC GROUP N.V.
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
AMUN AMUNDI SA
OR L'OREAL SA
SCHP SCHINDLER HOLDING AG PREF
EZJ EASYJET PLC
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
WDP WAREHOUSES DE PAUW SCA
SHEL SHELL PLC
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
AGN AEGON N.V.
- Cor Kluis
Aegon : In Q1 rising US solvency and OCG in line, positive cap release...
>Conclusion: Q1 rising US solvency and OCG in line, positive cap releases possible - Aegon will present a Q1 trading update in which we expect a rising US RBC solvency ratio and a stable UK Solvency ratio end-Q1 vs end-4Q. The gross cash capital at holding is expected to decline to € 1.9bn by end-Q1 23 (€ 2.4bn end-Q2 23) as a result of the large running SBB. We expect an OCG before holding/interest costs of € 246m in Q1 24. At the trading update it is possible that A...
- Nicolas David
BVI BUREAU VERITAS SA
SOP SOPRA STERIA GROUP SA
ATO ATOS SE
INF INFOTEL SA
ASY ASSYSTEM SA
SQI SQLI SA
SWP SWORD GROUP SE
ATE ALTEN SA
GRF GRIFOLS S.A. CLASS A
AIR AIRBUS SE
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
ENEL ENEL SPA
VRNL VERNEUIL PARTICIPATIONS
ORDI ORDINA N.V.
CTAC CTAC N.V.
TIETO TIETOEVRY OYJ
NEM NEMETSCHEK SE
COK CANCOM SE
BC8 BECHTLE AG
IBE IBERDROLA SA
SAN BANCO SANTANDER S.A.
IDR INDRA SISTEMAS S.A. CLASS A
GRF.P GRIFOLS S.A. PREF CLASS B
ECONT ECONOCOM GROUP SE CLASS D
REY REPLY S.P.A.
CCEP COCA-COLA EUROPEAN PARTNERS PLC
AEIN ALLGEIER HOLDING AG
WAVE WAVESTONE SA
FQT FREQUENTIS AG WIENER
NA9 NAGARRO
EXN EXCLUSIVE NETWORKS SA
OVH OVH GROUPE
IOS IONOS GROUP SE
AGN AEGON N.V.
- Nicolas David
BVI BUREAU VERITAS SA
SOP SOPRA STERIA GROUP SA
ATO ATOS SE
INF INFOTEL SA
ASY ASSYSTEM SA
SQI SQLI SA
SWP SWORD GROUP SE
ATE ALTEN SA
GRF GRIFOLS S.A. CLASS A
AIR AIRBUS SE
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
ENEL ENEL SPA
VRNL VERNEUIL PARTICIPATIONS
ORDI ORDINA N.V.
CTAC CTAC N.V.
TIETO TIETOEVRY OYJ
NEM NEMETSCHEK SE
COK CANCOM SE
BC8 BECHTLE AG
IBE IBERDROLA SA
SAN BANCO SANTANDER S.A.
IDR INDRA SISTEMAS S.A. CLASS A
GRF.P GRIFOLS S.A. PREF CLASS B
ECONT ECONOCOM GROUP SE CLASS D
REY REPLY S.P.A.
CCEP COCA-COLA EUROPEAN PARTNERS PLC
AEIN ALLGEIER HOLDING AG
WAVE WAVESTONE SA
FQT FREQUENTIS AG WIENER
NA9 NAGARRO
EXN EXCLUSIVE NETWORKS SA
OVH OVH GROUPE
IOS IONOS GROUP SE
AGN AEGON N.V.
- Cor Kluis
Aegon : Attractive valuation, still much work to be done on sales & ca...
>Conclusion: Attractive valuation, still much work to be done on sales & capital - Based on the FY23 results and targets we updated our valuation metrics and we come to a cash FCF yield of 9.7%, OCG yield of 11.6%, P/BV & CSM 0.6x multiple, and a for excess cap and a.s.r. stake adj. FCF yield 13.2% so a quite attractive valuation. Their OCG cap generations targets were a touch light but that is as they assume more production growth as that consumes OCG. The solvency i...
- Thomas Couvreur
AEGON Solid semester, but conservative guidance limits upside
Friday we downgraded Aegon from accumulate to hold, given limited upside to our unchanged target price of €5.5 after the rally in the last few months. Despite solid results, we see limited possibilities for increasing our estimates on the back of (in our view) conservative guidance, which was reiterated today.
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Marc Lavaud
- Philippe Ourpatian
VIE VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT SA
SGO COMPAGNIE DE SAINT-GOBAIN SA
ENGI ENGIE SA.
EDP EDP-ENERGIAS DE PORTUGAL SA
PUM PUMA SE
GRF GRIFOLS S.A. CLASS A
CRG CRH PLC
SIX2 SIXT SE
ACKB ACKERMANS & VAN HAAREN NV
FDR FLUIDRA S.A.
ACS ACTIVIDADES DE CONSTRUCCION Y SERVICIOS SA
INX IMCD N.V.
CLNX CELLNEX TELECOM S.A.
GRF.P GRIFOLS S.A. PREF CLASS B
LDO LEONARDO SPA
RMV RIGHTMOVE PLC
ANE CORPORACION ACCIONA ENERGIAS RENOVABLES SA
DTG DAIMLER TRUCK
AGN AEGON N.V.
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Marc Lavaud
- Philippe Ourpatian
VIE VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT SA
SGO COMPAGNIE DE SAINT-GOBAIN SA
ENGI ENGIE SA.
EDP EDP-ENERGIAS DE PORTUGAL SA
PUM PUMA SE
GRF GRIFOLS S.A. CLASS A
CRG CRH PLC
SIX2 SIXT SE
ANA ACCIONA SA
ACKB ACKERMANS & VAN HAAREN NV
FDR FLUIDRA S.A.
ACS ACTIVIDADES DE CONSTRUCCION Y SERVICIOS SA
INX IMCD N.V.
CLNX CELLNEX TELECOM S.A.
GRF.P GRIFOLS S.A. PREF CLASS B
LDO LEONARDO SPA
RMV RIGHTMOVE PLC
ANE CORPORACION ACCIONA ENERGIAS RENOVABLES SA
DTG DAIMLER TRUCK
AGN AEGON N.V.
- Cor Kluis
Aegon : Solvency and cash better, new financial asset cap release tran...
>Conclusion: Solvency better, new financial asset cap release transactions done - For end 2023 the Solvency better in the US, UK and the holding. Positive was that they again announced some new Financial Asset cap release transactions. Als other the cash upstreaming was better than expected by a China asset management dividend upstreaming. We keep our Outperform recommendation.US, UK and group solvency better than expected - End 4Q23 the US RBC solven...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Michiel Declercq
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Thomas Couvreur
AEGON FIRST LOOK: Solid semester, but conservative guidance limits ups...
Aegon reported a solid semester, though aided by some one-offs both on OCG and FCF. Shareholder remuneration in line with expectations. Both our numbers and consensus are on the aggressive side of the OCG & FCF FY25 targets, which were reiterated today, leaving little room for further upgrades to our numbers. Given limited upside to our €5.5 TP, we move from accumulate to hold.
- Oliver Metzger
- Wim Gille
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 23/01/2024
En ce début d’année 2024, nous privilégions les compagnies low-cost face aux majors. Nous estimons que la dynamique capacitaire restera plus favorable sur l’intra-européen que sur les routes long-courrier, ce qui permettra une évolution plus positive du pricing pour les LCC avec un levier opérationnel plus important. Nous dégradons par conséquent IAG en Neutre (vs Surperformance) avec un OC de 2 €, Lufthansa en Neutre (vs Surperformance) avec un OC de 8.5 € et finalement Air France-KL...
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
ERIC B TELEFONAKTIEBOLAGET LM ERICSSON CLASS B
ADEN ADECCO GROUP AG
AMUN AMUNDI SA
PHIA KONINKLIJKE PHILIPS N.V.
ORSTED ORSTED
SAN SANOFI
DIM SARTORIUS STEDIM BIOTECH SA
INGA ING GROEP NV
ABI ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA/NV
AD KONINKLIJKE AHOLD DELHAIZE N.V.
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
STMN STRAUMANN HOLDING AG
GSK GSK PLC
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
AGN AEGON N.V.
- Oliver Metzger
- Wim Gille
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 01/23/2024
At the start of 2024, we are playing low-cost carriers over majors. We think that capacity momentum will remain more favourable on intra-European routes than on long-haul routes, which will lead to a more positive pricing trend for LCCs with greater operating leverage. We are therefore downgrading our recommendation on IAG to Neutral (from Outperform), with a target price of € 2, Lufthansa to Neutral (from Outperform), with a target price of € 8.5 and lastly, Air France-KLM to Underpe...
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
ERIC B TELEFONAKTIEBOLAGET LM ERICSSON CLASS B
ADEN ADECCO GROUP AG
AMUN AMUNDI SA
PHIA KONINKLIJKE PHILIPS N.V.
ORSTED ORSTED
SAN SANOFI
DIM SARTORIUS STEDIM BIOTECH SA
INGA ING GROEP NV
ABI ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA/NV
AD KONINKLIJKE AHOLD DELHAIZE N.V.
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
STMN STRAUMANN HOLDING AG
GSK GSK PLC
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
AGN AEGON N.V.
- Cor Kluis
Aegon : In Q4 US Solvency stable and UK up, possible new cap release
>Conclusion: In Q4 US Solvency stable and UK up, possible new cap release - For 4Q23 which we expect a stable US RBC solvency and a rise of the UK Solvency 2 ratio vs end-3Q23. The gross cash capital at holding is expected to decline to € 2.3bn by end-4Q23 (€ 2.9bn end-3Q23) as a result of deleveraging and the SBB. We expect a stable underlying OCG in 4Q23 vs 3Q23. At the result day it is possible that Aegon would announce positive news the on Financial Asset capital ...
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