With primary sales remaining strong and HIBOR declining further, Hong Kong’s residential market is expected to continue its recovery despite rising geopolitical risks. We also summarise the key operational data and trends of Hong Kong landlords from this results season. The recent market pullback has created better entry points. We upgrade SHKP/Hysan/Wharf REIC from HOLD to BUY, and upgrade NWD from SELL to HOLD, with target prices remaining unchanged. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
Greater China Economics | Money Supply Feb 26 money and credit data came in above expectations, helped by the Chinese New Year effect and better new bank credit and TSF at Rmb0.90t and Rmb2.38t respectively. This lifted M2 growth to 9.0% yoy, while M1 growth came in at 5.9% yoy. While the 2M26 data was above market expectations, the credit cycle is not in an upswing, as total credit growth edged lower to 6.0% yoy, and TSF growth stayed flat at 8.2% yoy. Sector Update | Healthcare The HSH...
Top Stories Sector Update | Automobile China's humanoid robotics sector is accelerating, with 2025 global shipments up 508%. Key players anticipate significant revenue contributions by 2031: CATL expects 3-7% from batteries; Minth and LeaderDrive project 5-12% and 45-65% respectively; Tuopu forecasts 15-25% from motion systems; and RoboSense targets 40-60% from LiDAR. We maintain a MARKET WEIGHT rating on the sector. Top BUY recommendations include CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth (target price rais...
Adjusted underlying net profit rose 29.1% yoy, in line with estimates, while annual DPS was flat at HK$1.08. Retail momentum strengthened in 2H25 and early-26, while office occupancy continued to improve. With capital recycling progressing well, management did not rule out further Bamboo Grove sales. However, relatively high gearing remains a constraint, making deleveraging a 2026 priority. We fine-tune our 2026/27 earnings forecasts by +3.2%/-0.6%. Maintain HOLD with a slightly higher target pr...
Residential prices rebounded more strongly than expected in 4Q25 and ytd, supported by positive rental yield spread over mortgage rates and stabilising population trends in Hong Kong. However, the yield spread has narrowed and supply remains relatively high despite easing sequentially. We raise our 2026 price growth forecast to 7% and primary transaction estimate to 25,000 units. We downgrade SHKP to HOLD, keep Kerry Properties at BUY, and maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector.
Stronger local discretionary consumption supported positive growth in Hong Kong retail sales in 2H25, while the decline in visitors’ per capita spend moderated. Office rents remained under pressure but showed early signs of stabilisation. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on Hong Kong landlords. Link REIT remains our top pick despite a lower DPU forecast. We fine-tune Wharf REIC’s earnings and maintain BUY, while upgrading Hysan’s earnings and target price but downgrading it to HOLD on its limited upside.
Highlights Stronger local discretionary consumption drove the growth in Hong Kong retail sales in 2H25. Per capita spend of visitors fell yoy at a slower pace. Offices saw continued pressure on rents with signs of stabilisation in 2H25. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on Hong Kong landlords. Our top pick is still Link REIT for its attractive valuation and we lower our DPU forecast for it. We lower our earnings estimates for Wharf REIC and maintain BUY. We lift our earnings forecasts and target pric...
The IPO revival proves Hong Kong is re-emerging as a key hub for talent and capital amid geopolitical risks, benefitting the property market. Hong Kong’s repositioning is expected to shape the property industry’s new equilibrium over the next 2-3 years. As the market prepares for a new cycle, this report analyses the key factors driving industry fundamentals. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on Hong Kong developers and landlords.
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile The escalating China-US trade tensions have triggered a dual crisis in chips and rare earth, potentially disrupting the global auto supply chain like that seen in 2021-22. China's auto sector sees short-term gains from domestic prioritisation but long-term risks. Chinese auto part companies may see a revenue loss in 4Q25 if the issue is not resolved in a month. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Sector Upda...
Highlights Repositioning of Hong Kong driving new sector equilibrium in next 2-3 years. Catalysts: More rate cuts than expected, policy support and tourism recovery. Risks: Fewer rate cuts, massive collateral liquidation by banks, more defaults. Analysis Repositioning of Hong Kong driving new property market equilibrium. With geopolitical tensions being the new norm, Hong Kong is remerging as a key hub for capital and talent, as evidenced by the IPO market’s revival which has benefitted...
Golden Week new-home sales varied, with sales in Tier 1 cities growing 18.1% yoy on average, while sales in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities declined. In Hong Kong, second-hand transactions from 2024-25 projects, like SHKP's Cullinan Sky, achieved better capital gains, boosting investor sentiment. Tourism data was mixed: mainland tourist growth slowed, other regions’ visitors surged, and northbound travel stayed strong. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China and Hong Kong property/landlord sectors.
The 2025 Policy Address expands the new CIES to include HK$30m-50m worth of residential properties, moderates land supply targets and suspends the Kau Yi Chau project. The North Metropolis needs to accelerate development with innovative measures. Population growth and tourism remain the key policy focus, though local spending lacks direct support. Our pecking order of positive impact on each segment: residential>retail>office. SHKP and Hysan are our top picks, while NWD is downgraded to SELL due...
1H25 UNP grew 1.2% yoy to HK$1,031m, driven by improved occupancy rates and positive rental reversions in the retail and residential portfolios. Interim DPS was flat yoy. Hysan announced a five-year HK$8b capital recycling plan, including the sale of Bamboo Grove, which is expected to reduce net gearing by 2-3ppt and boost profits in 2025-27. We raise our forecast for adjusted UNP by 1.6-5.5%, and increase the target price to HK$17.84 on a higher DPS estimate and lower targeted yield. Maintain B...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile China’s PEV yoy sales growth turned negative (at -0.5%) during the week. BYD and Li Auto posted a yoy sales decline. We expect EV sales to recover from September with the launch of new models and interest subsidies for auto loans. Lithium carbonate prices rebounded to >Rmb80,000/tonne due to better supply discipline. We upgrade Ganfeng Lithium from HOLD to BUY thanks to lithium price recovery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results ...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: Yoy growth of China’s PEV sales turns negative; lithium price recovers. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results Geely Auto (175 HK/BUY/HK$18.95/Target: HK$42.00) 2Q25: Core earnings surge 93% yoy, in line; raise target price to HK$42.00. Maintain BUY. Hysan Development (14 HK/BUY/HK$15.67/Target: HK$17.84) ...
Despite a drop in retail sales and a peaking vacancy rate, we saw some positive signals, eg a qoq improvement in per capita spending and resilient restaurant receipts. A lower market rate will reduce landlords’ finance costs, with Wharf REIC set to benefit the most. Upgrade to MARKET WEIGHT and expect a marginal improvement in retail sales in the coming summer. Raise target prices by 8-11% for the stocks under our coverage for a lower risk-free rate. Top pick: Wharf REIC.
In May 25, data from 28 cities and the top 100 developers’ sales point to a mom increase but yoy fall in new home sales. Secondary transactions in 12 cities continued to see a yoy hike. Homebuyers’ sentiments remain weak and divergent among cities, but better supply-demand dynamics lower the urge to introduce strong policies. For Hong Kong, the gentle yoy decline in retail sales and stronger tourist numbers growth are positive developments. Maintain sector ratings. Top picks: CR Land, SHKP and L...
GREATER CHINA Strategy China Property & Hong Kong Property & Hong Kong Landlord Manageable pressure in mainland property market; improved tourism and retail sales momentum in Hong Kong. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances in May Good performances from most with the exception of GOTO and BUKA. MALAYSIA Results CIMB Group (CIMB MK/HOLD/RM6.93/Target: RM7.70) 1Q25: Earnings in line, underpinned by lower provisions. Mai...
The tariffs announced by Trump increased uncertainties over the Fed’s rate cuts, weighing on the recovery of the Hong Kong residential market and tourism. The mainland property market will be less affected, backed by China’s relatively independent monetary policy. For 2025, leading SOE developers’ earnings stabilisation will be a key highlight. Maintain sector weights with this pecking order: China property>Hong Kong developers>Hong Kong landlords. Top picks: CR Land and SHKP.
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property & Hong Kong Landlord Tariffs curtail US rate cuts, thereby hindering the recovery of Hong Kong property and tourism; Maintain OVERWEIGHT on China property. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperform In Mar 25 Remove BBNI, BBRI, ASII, JSMR and KLBF; add BBCA, ICBP, ERAA and BUKA. MALAYSIA Update Pekat Group (PEKAT MK/BUY/RM1.08/Target: RM1.45) Good earnings visibility over 2025...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.