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Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

Hong Kong Property: Striking A New Equilibrium

The IPO revival proves Hong Kong is re-emerging as a key hub for talent and capital amid geopolitical risks, benefitting the property market. Hong Kong’s repositioning is expected to shape the property industry’s new equilibrium over the next 2-3 years. As the market prepares for a new cycle, this report analyses the key factors driving industry fundamentals. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on Hong Kong developers and landlords.

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+22)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Andrew Agita Buntoro
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Damon Shen
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Gigi Cheuk
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Joyce Chu
  • Kate Luang
  • Ken Lee
  • Malaysia Research Team
  • Sunny Chen
  • Suryaputra Wijaksana
  • Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Thanawat Thangchadakorn
  • Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, October 24, 2025

Greater China Sector Update | Automobile The escalating China-US trade tensions have triggered a dual crisis in chips and rare earth, potentially disrupting the global auto supply chain like that seen in 2021-22. China's auto sector sees short-term gains from domestic prioritisation but long-term risks. Chinese auto part companies may see a revenue loss in 4Q25 if the issue is not resolved in a month. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Sector Upda...

BJC BERLI JUCKER PUBLIC CO. LTD.
300014 EVE ENERGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
KKP KIATNAKIN BANK
00683 KERRY PROPERTIES LIMITED
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
FCT FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST
00823 LINK REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
BBL BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
KTB KRUNG THAI BANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
TOP THAI OIL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
U96 SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD.
TISCO TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP
GFPT GFPT
00014 HYSAN DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
TMB TMB BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
EGH EUREKA GROUP HOLDINGS
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
002340 GEM CO. LTD. CLASS A
5Z0 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
01316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
01585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
01997 WHARF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT CO. LTD.
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
T TELEKOM MALAYSIA BHD
ECW ECO WORLD DEVELOPMENT GROUP
1833 PING AN HEALTHCARE AND TECHNOLOGY COMPANY LIMITED
02232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
00017 NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
SCB SCB X PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
Z29 029 GROUP SE
02015 LI AUTO INC
300244 DIAN DIAGNOSTICS GROUP CO
600699 JOYSON ELECTRONICS CORP
Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

Hong Kong Property: Striking a new equilibrium. MARKET WEIGHT

Highlights  Repositioning of Hong Kong driving new sector equilibrium in next 2-3 years.  Catalysts: More rate cuts than expected, policy support and tourism recovery.  Risks: Fewer rate cuts, massive collateral liquidation by banks, more defaults. Analysis  Repositioning of Hong Kong driving new property market equilibrium. With geopolitical tensions being the new norm, Hong Kong is remerging as a key hub for capital and talent, as evidenced by the IPO market’s revival which has benefitted...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China and Hong Kong Property: Update Of Key Data And Trends During 202...

Golden Week new-home sales varied, with sales in Tier 1 cities growing 18.1% yoy on average, while sales in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities declined. In Hong Kong, second-hand transactions from 2024-25 projects, like SHKP's Cullinan Sky, achieved better capital gains, boosting investor sentiment. Tourism data was mixed: mainland tourist growth slowed, other regions’ visitors surged, and northbound travel stayed strong. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China and Hong Kong property/landlord sectors.

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

Hong Kong Property: 2025 Policy Address: Positive On Residential Marke...

The 2025 Policy Address expands the new CIES to include HK$30m-50m worth of residential properties, moderates land supply targets and suspends the Kau Yi Chau project. The North Metropolis needs to accelerate development with innovative measures. Population growth and tourism remain the key policy focus, though local spending lacks direct support. Our pecking order of positive impact on each segment: residential>retail>office. SHKP and Hysan are our top picks, while NWD is downgraded to SELL due...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

Hysan Development (14 HK): 1H25: Resilient performance; capital recycl...

1H25 UNP grew 1.2% yoy to HK$1,031m, driven by improved occupancy rates and positive rental reversions in the retail and residential portfolios. Interim DPS was flat yoy. Hysan announced a five-year HK$8b capital recycling plan, including the sale of Bamboo Grove, which is expected to reduce net gearing by 2-3ppt and boost profits in 2025-27. We raise our forecast for adjusted UNP by 1.6-5.5%, and increase the target price to HK$17.84 on a higher DPS estimate and lower targeted yield. Maintain B...

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+11)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Colin Lee
  • Damon Shen
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ken Lee
  • Ming San Soong
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi

Greater China Daily: Friday, August 15, 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile China’s PEV yoy sales growth turned negative (at -0.5%) during the week. BYD and Li Auto posted a yoy sales decline. We expect EV sales to recover from September with the launch of new models and interest subsidies for auto loans. Lithium carbonate prices rebounded to >Rmb80,000/tonne due to better supply discipline. We upgrade Ganfeng Lithium from HOLD to BUY thanks to lithium price recovery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results ...

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+17)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Alden Gabriel Lam
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Benyamin Mikael
  • Damon Shen
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • Jieqi Liu
  • John Cheong Ming Chern
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ken Lee
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Lester Siew
  • Ming San Soong
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, August 15, 2025

GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: Yoy growth of China’s PEV sales turns negative; lithium price recovers. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results Geely Auto (175 HK/BUY/HK$18.95/Target: HK$42.00) 2Q25: Core earnings surge 93% yoy, in line; raise target price to HK$42.00. Maintain BUY. Hysan Development (14 HK/BUY/HK$15.67/Target: HK$17.84) ...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

Hong Kong Landlords: Improved liquidity supporting local spending and ...

Despite a drop in retail sales and a peaking vacancy rate, we saw some positive signals, eg a qoq improvement in per capita spending and resilient restaurant receipts. A lower market rate will reduce landlords’ finance costs, with Wharf REIC set to benefit the most. Upgrade to MARKET WEIGHT and expect a marginal improvement in retail sales in the coming summer. Raise target prices by 8-11% for the stocks under our coverage for a lower risk-free rate. Top pick: Wharf REIC.

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China & Hong Kong Property, Hong Kong Landlord Strategy: Manageable pr...

In May 25, data from 28 cities and the top 100 developers’ sales point to a mom increase but yoy fall in new home sales. Secondary transactions in 12 cities continued to see a yoy hike. Homebuyers’ sentiments remain weak and divergent among cities, but better supply-demand dynamics lower the urge to introduce strong policies. For Hong Kong, the gentle yoy decline in retail sales and stronger tourist numbers growth are positive developments. Maintain sector ratings. Top picks: CR Land, SHKP and L...

Damon Shen ... (+6)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Johnny Yum
  • Keith Wee Teck Keong
  • Singapore Research Team

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, June 03, 2025

GREATER CHINA Strategy China Property & Hong Kong Property & Hong Kong Landlord Manageable pressure in mainland property market; improved tourism and retail sales momentum in Hong Kong. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances in May Good performances from most with the exception of GOTO and BUKA. MALAYSIA Results CIMB Group (CIMB MK/HOLD/RM6.93/Target: RM7.70) 1Q25: Earnings in line, underpinned by lower provisions. Mai...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China And Hong Kong Property & Hong Kong Landlords Strategy: Tariffs c...

The tariffs announced by Trump increased uncertainties over the Fed’s rate cuts, weighing on the recovery of the Hong Kong residential market and tourism. The mainland property market will be less affected, backed by China’s relatively independent monetary policy. For 2025, leading SOE developers’ earnings stabilisation will be a key highlight. Maintain sector weights with this pecking order: China property>Hong Kong developers>Hong Kong landlords. Top picks: CR Land and SHKP.

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+11)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Damon Shen
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Johnny Yum
  • Kampon Akaravarinchai
  • Singapore Research Team
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Wei Xiang Ku

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, April 08, 2025

GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property & Hong Kong Landlord Tariffs curtail US rate cuts, thereby hindering the recovery of Hong Kong property and tourism; Maintain OVERWEIGHT on China property. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperform In Mar 25 Remove BBNI, BBRI, ASII, JSMR and KLBF; add BBCA, ICBP, ERAA and BUKA. MALAYSIA Update Pekat Group (PEKAT MK/BUY/RM1.08/Target: RM1.45) Good earnings visibility over 2025...

TFG THAIFOODS GROUP
FR FIRST INDUSTRIAL REALTY TRUST INC.
AES AES CORPORATION
OU8 CENTURION
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
00683 KERRY PROPERTIES LIMITED
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
FCT FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST
00823 LINK REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
CC3 STARHUB LTD
CPF CHAROEN POKPHAND FOODS PUBLIC CO. LTD.
S63 SINGAPORE TECHNOLOGIES ENGINEERING LTD
544 CSE GLOBAL LTD.
D05 DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
C09 CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED
S68 SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LTD.
V03 VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED
U96 SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD.
F34 WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
BN2 VALUETRONICS HOLDINGS
B8O YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING (HOLDINGS) LTD.
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
N2IU MAPLETREE COMMERCIAL TRUST
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
TU THAI UNION GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
BUOU FRASERS LOGISTICS & COMMERCIAL TRUST
GFPT GFPT
00014 HYSAN DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
C52 COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LIMITED
C6L SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD.
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
Z74 SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
PTTEP PTT EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION PLC
Y92 THAI BEVERAGE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
AP4 RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS
BN4 KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED
ICBP PT INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR TBK
ERAA ERAJAYA SWASEMBADA
Q5T FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
MIKA MITRA KELUARGA KARYASEHAT
01997 WHARF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT CO. LTD.
SE SEA ADS
SATS SP SATS LTD.
D01 DAIRY FARM INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
G13 GENTING SINGAPORE LIMITED
CDREIT CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS
SUN SUNTECH SA
KREIT KEPPEL REIT
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
NETLINK NETLINK NBN TRUST
SIE SIA ENGINEERING CO LTD
BAL BUMITAMA AGRI LTD
PREIT PARKWAYLIFE REAL ESTATE
SPOST SINGAPORE POST LTD
MINT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
FHT FRASERS HOSPITALITY TRUST
PMAH PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDIN
SSG SHENG SIONG GROUP LTD
RFMD RAFFLES MEDICAL GROUP LTD
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
TGIF 1933 INDUSTRIES
RSTON RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS LTD
FRKN FRENCKEN GROUP LTD
MPM MARCO POLO MARINE LTD
CICT CAPITALAND INTEGRATED COMMERCIAL TRUST
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
HMN ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST
00017 NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
SE US SEA LIMITED
BUKA BUKALAPAK.COM PT TBK
CVL CIVMEC
9CI CAPITALAND INVESTMENT LTD
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
123F 123FAHRSCHULE SE
BCOW 1895 BANCORP OF WISCONSIN INC
CLAR CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
ITC I-TAIL CORPORATION PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
DCRU DIGITAL CORE REIT MANAGEMENT PTE. LTD.
STM SEATRIUM LTD
EPIC 1CM INC
Z29 029 GROUP SE
BTG BETAGRO PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
PEKAT PEKAT GROUP BHD
PAN SP PAN-UNITED CORPORATION (PAN SP)
Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

Hysan Development (14 HK): 2024: Positive growth in rental income supp...

Hysan reported a 6.2% growth in revenue, driven by a 9.5% yoy growth in retail rents, thanks to the completion of AEIs at Lee Gardens and positive rental reversion. Excluding fair value loss and impairment on JV projects, underlying net profit increased 6.8% yoy to HK$1.96b, 5.3% higher than our estimate. DPS is HK$1.08/share, flat yoy. With a normalised base in 2025, recovery of consumption will be a key driver for Hysan. Maintain BUY with UNP forecasts. Target price: HK$14.19.

Damon Shen ... (+5)
  • Damon Shen
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong

Greater China Daily: Wednesday, February 19, 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Baidu Inc (9888 HK/HOLD/HK$90.20/Target: HK$93.00) Baidu’s 4Q24 earnings beat expectations. Revenue dipped 2% yoy to Rmb34.1b, in line with consensus estimate. Gross margin inched down 3ppt yoy to 47.2%, within consensus expectation. Non-GAAP operating profit was Rmb5b, down 29% yoy, while non-GAAP operating profit margin came in at 15%. Non-GAAP net profit plummeted 13% yoy to Rmb6.7b, albeit surpassing consensus estimate by 39%. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged target p...

Benyamin Mikael ... (+10)
  • Benyamin Mikael
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Damon Shen
  • Jack Goh Tooan Orng
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kampon Akaravarinchai
  • Ming San Soong
  • Singapore Research Team
  • Thanawat Thangchadakorn

Regional Morning Notes - Wednesday, February 19, 2025

GREATER CHINA Results Baidu Inc (9888 HK/HOLD/HK$90.20/Target: HK$93.00): 4Q24: Solid earnings beat and strong AI cloud revenue growth outlook in 2025. Hysan Development (14 HK/BUY/HK$12.58/Target: HK$14.19): 2024: Positive growth in rental income supported stable DPS. INDONESIA Update Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ/BUY/Rp1,035/Target: Rp1,440): Expect continuation of all-time high marketing sales in 2025 (+10% yoy). MALAYSIA Results Hartalega Holdings (HART MK/BUY/RM2.61/Target: RM3.14): 3QFY25:...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China And Hong Kong Property Strategy: Observations of 2025 Chinese Ne...

Property sales in both mainland China and Hong Kong weakened during 2025’s CNY. Another key development around CNY was the change in Vanke’s top management, which we think cannot eliminate the risks associated with Vanke due to the financial constraint of Shenzhen Metro. Hong Kong saw a low growth in tourist arrivals during CNY. We think further policy support is needed and possible. Maintain our respective sector ratings. Top picks are CR Land, SHKP and LINK REIT.

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

Property: Hong Kong Landlords -- Per capita tourism spending weakens f...

In 2024, Hong Kong saw a recovery in the number of visitors, but per capita spending weakened further. For 2025 we expect a stronger-than-expected Hong Kong dollar to continue to diminish the competitiveness of Hong Kong tourism and shopping, and weigh on the valuation of landlords. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Trim earnings for Wharf REIC and Hysan. Lower the target prices for our covered stocks. LINK REIT is our top pick for the resilience of community malls.

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

Strategy: Hong Kong Developers And Landlords -- Top developer leads st...

In Oct 24, the primary property market showed signs of recovery, with a notable increase in transaction volume. Nov 24 may see a pullback in transaction volume on lower high-quality new supply. However, we still expect a 3% recovery in property prices in 4Q24-1Q25, driven by rising rental yields and supportive macro factors. On the other hand, retail landlords continue to face challenges from GBA integration. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT and prefer developers over landlords. SHKP and LINK REIT are our...

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+12)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Benyamin Mikael
  • Colin Lee
  • Damon Shen
  • Jack Goh Tooan Orng
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ming San Soong
  • Stevanus Juanda
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, November 05, 2024

GREATER CHINA Strategy Hong Kong Developers And Landlords Top developer leads strong sales rebound in Oct 24; landlords continue to face challenges from GBA integration. Sector Internet - China Encouraging monetisation visibility from adtech and LLM upgrades. Update Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$27.30/Target: HK$31.70) 3Q24 results preview: Robust growth in IoT se...

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