The IPO revival proves Hong Kong is re-emerging as a key hub for talent and capital amid geopolitical risks, benefitting the property market. Hong Kong’s repositioning is expected to shape the property industry’s new equilibrium over the next 2-3 years. As the market prepares for a new cycle, this report analyses the key factors driving industry fundamentals. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on Hong Kong developers and landlords.
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile The escalating China-US trade tensions have triggered a dual crisis in chips and rare earth, potentially disrupting the global auto supply chain like that seen in 2021-22. China's auto sector sees short-term gains from domestic prioritisation but long-term risks. Chinese auto part companies may see a revenue loss in 4Q25 if the issue is not resolved in a month. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Sector Upda...
Highlights Repositioning of Hong Kong driving new sector equilibrium in next 2-3 years. Catalysts: More rate cuts than expected, policy support and tourism recovery. Risks: Fewer rate cuts, massive collateral liquidation by banks, more defaults. Analysis Repositioning of Hong Kong driving new property market equilibrium. With geopolitical tensions being the new norm, Hong Kong is remerging as a key hub for capital and talent, as evidenced by the IPO market’s revival which has benefitted...
Golden Week new-home sales varied, with sales in Tier 1 cities growing 18.1% yoy on average, while sales in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities declined. In Hong Kong, second-hand transactions from 2024-25 projects, like SHKP's Cullinan Sky, achieved better capital gains, boosting investor sentiment. Tourism data was mixed: mainland tourist growth slowed, other regions’ visitors surged, and northbound travel stayed strong. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China and Hong Kong property/landlord sectors.
The 2025 Policy Address expands the new CIES to include HK$30m-50m worth of residential properties, moderates land supply targets and suspends the Kau Yi Chau project. The North Metropolis needs to accelerate development with innovative measures. Population growth and tourism remain the key policy focus, though local spending lacks direct support. Our pecking order of positive impact on each segment: residential>retail>office. SHKP and Hysan are our top picks, while NWD is downgraded to SELL due...
1H25 UNP grew 1.2% yoy to HK$1,031m, driven by improved occupancy rates and positive rental reversions in the retail and residential portfolios. Interim DPS was flat yoy. Hysan announced a five-year HK$8b capital recycling plan, including the sale of Bamboo Grove, which is expected to reduce net gearing by 2-3ppt and boost profits in 2025-27. We raise our forecast for adjusted UNP by 1.6-5.5%, and increase the target price to HK$17.84 on a higher DPS estimate and lower targeted yield. Maintain B...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile China’s PEV yoy sales growth turned negative (at -0.5%) during the week. BYD and Li Auto posted a yoy sales decline. We expect EV sales to recover from September with the launch of new models and interest subsidies for auto loans. Lithium carbonate prices rebounded to >Rmb80,000/tonne due to better supply discipline. We upgrade Ganfeng Lithium from HOLD to BUY thanks to lithium price recovery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results ...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: Yoy growth of China’s PEV sales turns negative; lithium price recovers. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results Geely Auto (175 HK/BUY/HK$18.95/Target: HK$42.00) 2Q25: Core earnings surge 93% yoy, in line; raise target price to HK$42.00. Maintain BUY. Hysan Development (14 HK/BUY/HK$15.67/Target: HK$17.84) ...
Despite a drop in retail sales and a peaking vacancy rate, we saw some positive signals, eg a qoq improvement in per capita spending and resilient restaurant receipts. A lower market rate will reduce landlords’ finance costs, with Wharf REIC set to benefit the most. Upgrade to MARKET WEIGHT and expect a marginal improvement in retail sales in the coming summer. Raise target prices by 8-11% for the stocks under our coverage for a lower risk-free rate. Top pick: Wharf REIC.
In May 25, data from 28 cities and the top 100 developers’ sales point to a mom increase but yoy fall in new home sales. Secondary transactions in 12 cities continued to see a yoy hike. Homebuyers’ sentiments remain weak and divergent among cities, but better supply-demand dynamics lower the urge to introduce strong policies. For Hong Kong, the gentle yoy decline in retail sales and stronger tourist numbers growth are positive developments. Maintain sector ratings. Top picks: CR Land, SHKP and L...
GREATER CHINA Strategy China Property & Hong Kong Property & Hong Kong Landlord Manageable pressure in mainland property market; improved tourism and retail sales momentum in Hong Kong. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances in May Good performances from most with the exception of GOTO and BUKA. MALAYSIA Results CIMB Group (CIMB MK/HOLD/RM6.93/Target: RM7.70) 1Q25: Earnings in line, underpinned by lower provisions. Mai...
The tariffs announced by Trump increased uncertainties over the Fed’s rate cuts, weighing on the recovery of the Hong Kong residential market and tourism. The mainland property market will be less affected, backed by China’s relatively independent monetary policy. For 2025, leading SOE developers’ earnings stabilisation will be a key highlight. Maintain sector weights with this pecking order: China property>Hong Kong developers>Hong Kong landlords. Top picks: CR Land and SHKP.
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property & Hong Kong Landlord Tariffs curtail US rate cuts, thereby hindering the recovery of Hong Kong property and tourism; Maintain OVERWEIGHT on China property. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperform In Mar 25 Remove BBNI, BBRI, ASII, JSMR and KLBF; add BBCA, ICBP, ERAA and BUKA. MALAYSIA Update Pekat Group (PEKAT MK/BUY/RM1.08/Target: RM1.45) Good earnings visibility over 2025...
Hysan reported a 6.2% growth in revenue, driven by a 9.5% yoy growth in retail rents, thanks to the completion of AEIs at Lee Gardens and positive rental reversion. Excluding fair value loss and impairment on JV projects, underlying net profit increased 6.8% yoy to HK$1.96b, 5.3% higher than our estimate. DPS is HK$1.08/share, flat yoy. With a normalised base in 2025, recovery of consumption will be a key driver for Hysan. Maintain BUY with UNP forecasts. Target price: HK$14.19.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Baidu Inc (9888 HK/HOLD/HK$90.20/Target: HK$93.00) Baidu’s 4Q24 earnings beat expectations. Revenue dipped 2% yoy to Rmb34.1b, in line with consensus estimate. Gross margin inched down 3ppt yoy to 47.2%, within consensus expectation. Non-GAAP operating profit was Rmb5b, down 29% yoy, while non-GAAP operating profit margin came in at 15%. Non-GAAP net profit plummeted 13% yoy to Rmb6.7b, albeit surpassing consensus estimate by 39%. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged target p...
GREATER CHINA Results Baidu Inc (9888 HK/HOLD/HK$90.20/Target: HK$93.00): 4Q24: Solid earnings beat and strong AI cloud revenue growth outlook in 2025. Hysan Development (14 HK/BUY/HK$12.58/Target: HK$14.19): 2024: Positive growth in rental income supported stable DPS. INDONESIA Update Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ/BUY/Rp1,035/Target: Rp1,440): Expect continuation of all-time high marketing sales in 2025 (+10% yoy). MALAYSIA Results Hartalega Holdings (HART MK/BUY/RM2.61/Target: RM3.14): 3QFY25:...
Property sales in both mainland China and Hong Kong weakened during 2025’s CNY. Another key development around CNY was the change in Vanke’s top management, which we think cannot eliminate the risks associated with Vanke due to the financial constraint of Shenzhen Metro. Hong Kong saw a low growth in tourist arrivals during CNY. We think further policy support is needed and possible. Maintain our respective sector ratings. Top picks are CR Land, SHKP and LINK REIT.
In 2024, Hong Kong saw a recovery in the number of visitors, but per capita spending weakened further. For 2025 we expect a stronger-than-expected Hong Kong dollar to continue to diminish the competitiveness of Hong Kong tourism and shopping, and weigh on the valuation of landlords. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Trim earnings for Wharf REIC and Hysan. Lower the target prices for our covered stocks. LINK REIT is our top pick for the resilience of community malls.
In Oct 24, the primary property market showed signs of recovery, with a notable increase in transaction volume. Nov 24 may see a pullback in transaction volume on lower high-quality new supply. However, we still expect a 3% recovery in property prices in 4Q24-1Q25, driven by rising rental yields and supportive macro factors. On the other hand, retail landlords continue to face challenges from GBA integration. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT and prefer developers over landlords. SHKP and LINK REIT are our...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Hong Kong Developers And Landlords Top developer leads strong sales rebound in Oct 24; landlords continue to face challenges from GBA integration. Sector Internet - China Encouraging monetisation visibility from adtech and LLM upgrades. Update Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$27.30/Target: HK$31.70) 3Q24 results preview: Robust growth in IoT se...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.