On 16 March, the State Council issued a plan on special initiatives to boost consumption, aiming to increase spending power by increasing income and reducing financial burdens, generate effective demand through high-quality supply, and improve the consumption environment to strengthen consumers’ willingness to spend. In the China consumer sector, we prefer Anta, CR Beer, Galaxy, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Yili. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Retail demand for liquid milk remains weak. However, the industry's channel inventories have become much healthier and retail prices have been recovering, providing a foundation for dairy companies to gradually normalise shipment volumes. Despite benefitting less from raw milk price tailwinds in 2025, dairy companies’ margin growth will be mainly driven by: a) sale of expense savings, b) efficiency enhancement, and c) reduction of bulk powder impairment. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the sector.
Consumption during the CNY demonstrated a satisfactory momentum. Daily average sales revenue of consumer-related industries grew 11% yoy, with the home appliances and furnishing category recording the highest growth rate. Domestic tourism per capita spending increased 1% yoy and recovered to 95% of 2019’s level, and Hainan DF per capita spending rose 4% yoy. Macau visitations recovered to 95% of 2019’s level. In the China consumer space, we prefer Anta, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Sands Ch...
We do not expect a strong consumption momentum for the upcoming CNY holiday, but expect home appliance, Macau gaming, movie and retail to be the bright spots. We prefer Anta, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Sands in China’s consumer space.
GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation Airlines: The three major airlines’ 2024 preliminary earnings estimates were below expectations – still loss-making. Healthcare TCM: GPO price pressure continues to cloud 2025’s growth outlook. Consumer CNY preview: Expect home appli...
Yili’s 3Q24 core earnings rose 36% yoy. Management expects revenue to improve sequentially in 4Q24, thanks to healthier channel inventories and normalised retail prices after the channel adjustment, despite the absence of any significant improvement in consumer demand thus far in 4Q24 to date compared with 3Q24. Raw milk supply and demand are expected to reach a balance in 2025. Management maintains a net profit margin target of 9% in 2025. Maintain BUY and raise target price by 6% to Rmb35.20.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI October’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1% (+0.3ppt mom), with improvements across all composite indices. However, new export orders and inventory of finished goods continued to contract, with increases in purchase prices. The non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2% (+0.2ppt mom), showing broad-based improvements across all indices but a slight dip in construction PMI. Activity for small-sized firms contracted, likely impacted by fewer new manufacturing export orders....
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI: Broad-based improvement in PMI. Results Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$8.11/Target: HK$14.60): 3Q24: Premiumisation slows down in China; in-home channel to be a focus. BYD Electronic (285 HK/BUY/HK$33.50/Target: HK$40.90): 3Q24: Solid set of results; 4Q24/2025 growth may accelerate further. Maintain BUY. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/HOLD/HK$6.91/Target: HK$6.50): 3Q24: In line; 3Q24 wind power generation up 6.2% yoy. COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK/HOLD/HK$11.54/Tar...
China consumer stocks under our coverage have rebounded by 33% on average since end-Sep 24, but current valuations are still undemanding. With direct policy support and a potential wealth effect, we believe China consumers are restoring their confidence. China consumer companies should see better earnings visibility in 2024, which should support further re-rating. We suggest investors refocus on the China theme in the near term. We prefer Anta, Galaxy, Haidilao, Haier, Mengniu and Midea. Maintai...
GREATER CHINA Sector Consumer Golden Week: Tourism and home appliances the bright spots; refocus on China theme. Internet Government policy rollout to boost consumption and drive valuation repair. Update Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/HOLD/HK$340.80/Target: HK$355.00) Further valuation re-rating requires more sustainable AD...
For Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, tourism, duty-free shopping and home appliance consumption were the bright spots. Domestic tourism and duty-free shopping had the strongest recovery among mini breaks this year. For the home appliance sector, trade-in policies are beginning to stimulate consumer demand. We prefer companies that: a) are disciplined in business operation; b) have good prospects in overseas business; and c) maintain healthy inventories. We prefer Anta, Galaxy, Haidilao, Haier, Midea...
After the 2Q24/1H24 results, we are now more cautious on China’s consumer sector. For consumer discretionary, domestic operations were impacted by weak offline traffic. Companies remained concrete on overseas expansion and became more disciplined on cost control to protect the margin level amid the slower top-line growth. For consumer staple, we observed slower product mix upgrade. Companies adopted proactive shipment control to manage channel inventories. Operating efficiency improvement became...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales rebound by 14.7% yoy, beating estimates. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Desay SV, and Geely. Top SELL: GAC. Consumer 2Q24/1H24 results wrap-up: Lowered expectations; disciplined operations matter. INDONESIA Update Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ/BUY/Rp680/Target: Rp900) ...
2Q24 core earnings fell 43% yoy mainly due to the ongoing channel adjustments. Yili maintains its full-year revenue target of a high single-digit growth, supported by stable milk prices and improving channel inventories in 2H24. Management expects a stable 2024 net margin and targets a 2025 net margin of 9%, driven by healthier supply and demand dynamics in the white milk industry and better efficiency improvements. Dividend payout is expected to be maintained at >70%. Maintain BUY; cut target p...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI The decline in manufacturing PMI steepened in August, falling to 49.1% (-0.3ppt mom), with all sub-indices lower except suppliers’ delivery time. Non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3% (+0.1ppt mom), aided by an improvement in new orders. Overall, the PMI report points to the further slowing of economic activities. The activity for enterprises of all sizes declined but large-sized enterprises remained the most robust compared to small- and medium-sized firms. Sect...
GREATER CHINA Sector Macau Gaming: Aug 24 GGR up 6% mom, beating expectations. Results China Merchants Port (144 HK/BUY/HK$11.70/Target: HK$15.21): 1H24: Core earnings a moderate beat; hopeful for higher dividend payout. Maintain BUY. Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK/SELL/HK$2.50/Target: HK$1.80): 2Q24: Net profit misses on ASP. Cut target price from HK$2.00 to HK$1.80. Maintain SELL. Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (600887 CH/BUY/Rmb22.63/Target: Rmb28.40): 2Q24: Earnings dragged by cha...
Summary Want Want China Holdings Ltd - Company Profile and SWOT Analysis, is a source of comprehensive company data and information. The report covers the company's structure, operation, SWOT analysis, product and service offerings and corporate actions, providing a 360˚ view of the company. Key Highlights Want Want China Holdings Ltd (Want Want) is a food and beverage products manufacturer. The company involved in manufacturing, distributing and marketing of rice crackers, dairy products, be...
Management lowered the full-year revenue expectations from 3% yoy growth to positive growth, due to weak demand for liquid milk. Yili has been adjusting sales channels since Feb 24 to digest the excess supply in the market, which is expected to be completed by end-Jul 24. Thus, management expects liquid milk sales to be better than that in 1H24, leading to a flat revenue growth for the full year. Maintain BUY but cut target price by 7% to Rmb30.60 to reflect the lower liquid milk sales growth.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Update Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/BUY/HK$241.40/Target: HK$310.00) June headline ADT declined 12% mom as the market turned cautious ahead of the third plenum meeting. Hence, we revised down our 2Q24 net profit growth forecast to 11% yoy. While the upcoming minimum spread review is expected to boost the headline ADT in the long term, the outcome of the third plenum meeting and the upcoming Fed rate cut cycle are likely to be the key near-term drivers of market sen...
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