reports
- Alden Gabriel Lam
- Willinoy Sitorus
Strategy - JCI Trading Halt On MSCI Announcement
Strategy | JCI Trading Halt On MSCI Announcement The JCI was halted with an intraday peak decline of 8.8% on MSCI’s free float methodology decision, led by large-cap and conglomerate stocks. On 28 Jan 26, MSCI concluded its consultation, citing concerns over shareholder transparency and possible coordinated trading. MSCI imposed an interim freeze for Feb 26, with no index additions, no upward FIF or NOS changes, and no size migration, while exclusions remain possible. Persistent issues by May 26...
- Alden Gabriel Lam
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Willinoy Sitorus
Indonesia Daily - Thursday, January 29, 2026
Strategy | JCI Trading Halt On MSCI Announcement The JCI was halted with an intraday peak decline of 8.8% on MSCI’s free float methodology decision, led by large-cap and conglomerate stocks. On 28 Jan 26, MSCI concluded its consultation, citing concerns over shareholder transparency and possible coordinated trading. MSCI imposed an interim freeze for Feb 26, with no index additions, no upward FIF or NOS changes, and no size migration, while exclusions remain possible. Persistent issues by May 26...
- Willinoy Sitorus
Strategy - Liquidity Tailwinds And Flow Momentum Drive JCI Upside
Strategy | Liquidity Tailwinds And Flow Momentum Drive JCI Upside Equity markets are supported by renewed foreign inflows, rising commodity prices, and improving liquidity. Net equity inflows turned positive at US$169.6m over the past one month, while key commodities posted strong gains. Narrowing yield spreads (10-year bond yield minus LQ45 dividend yield) and improving money supply growth reinforce a preference for equity over bonds. Greater intervention by Bank Indonesia to support the rupiah...
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
HEAL MEDIKALOKA HERMINA
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
DEWA IJ DARMA HENWA (DEWA IJ)
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Damon Shen
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- Jieqi Liu
- Jo Yee Ng
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Lester Siew
- Ming San Soong
- Willinoy Sitorus
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, January 13, 2026
Greater China Sector Update | China Property Demand remained under pressure in Jan 26, with both new-home sales and secondary-home transactions continuing to post sharp yoy declines. Land market activity weakened notably toward the end of 2025, while capital and demand were further concentrated in a small number of strong Tier 1-2 cities, underscoring persistent divergence across regions amid still-soft market sentiment. We remain UNDERWEIGHT on China’s property sector, and expect high polic...
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
JPFA JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
SOP SARAWAK OIL PALMS BERHAD
KIML KIM LOONG RESOURCES BHD
IJM IJM CORP BHD
IOI IOI CORP BHD
KLK KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD
FUTU FUTU HOLDINGS ADS
SWB SUNWAY BHD
GENP GENTING PLANTATIONS BHD
HAPL HAP SENG PLANTATIONS HOLDINGS BHD
HEAL MEDIKALOKA HERMINA
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
SCGP SCG PACKAGING PCL
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
SDG SD GUTHRIE BHD
DEWA IJ DARMA HENWA (DEWA IJ)
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
ASL SP ASL MARINE (ASL SP)
- Maskun Ramli
- Willinoy Sitorus
Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, January 13, 2026
Strategy | Liquidity Tailwinds And Flow Momentum Drive JCI Upside Equity markets are supported by renewed foreign inflows, rising commodity prices, and improving liquidity. Net equity inflows turned positive at US$169.6m over the past one month, while key commodities posted strong gains. Narrowing yield spreads (10-year bond yield minus LQ45 dividend yield) and improving money supply growth reinforce a preference for equity over bonds. Greater intervention by Bank Indonesia to support the rupiah...
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
HEAL MEDIKALOKA HERMINA
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
DEWA IJ DARMA HENWA (DEWA IJ)
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
- Audrey Celia
- Willinoy Sitorus
Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper (INKP IJ) - Attractive Valuation With Clear Ca...
Company Update | Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper (INKP IJ/BUY/Rp7,900/Target: Rp12,000) The Karawang plant expansion remains on track, and we expect it to contribute 12% of revenue in 2026, rising to 29% by 2029 (+49% three-year CAGR). BHKP prices have recovered to US$530/tonne from the mid-year low of US$498/tonne, with industry indicators suggesting a tighter supply-demand balance in 2026. We maintain BUY on INKP with a Rp12,000 target price based on 9x 2026F PE; the stock currently trades at an undem...
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Audrey Celia
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Malaysia Research Team
- Ming San Soong
- Philip Wong
- Suryaputra Wijaksana
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
- Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
- Willinoy Sitorus
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, November 26, 2025
Greater China Company Results | Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$157.80/Target: HK$206.00) Alibaba reported solid 2QFY26 results. Revenue grew 5% yoy to Rmb247.8b (15% like-for-like basis), in line with the street’s estimate. Non-GAAP net profit was Rmb10.4b, down 72% yoy, missing our forecast, due to its investment in Taobao Instant Commerce. In 3QFY26, management expects: a) significant narrowing of quick commerce losses, b) moderated CMR growth due to the high base last year, and c) continued st...
- Audrey Celia
- Maskun Ramli
- Suryaputra Wijaksana
- Willinoy Sitorus
Indonesia Daily - Wednesday, November 26, 2025
Economics | Indonesia's M2 Moderation Masks Domestic Liquidity Surge Indonesia's M2 growth slowed to 7.7% yoy in October, mainly on foreign capital outflows. This was offset by robust domestic liquidity from central bank bond purchases. A key disconnect remains, as this surge is fuelling record demand for government bonds instead of bank credit, pushing yields down. With benign inflation expected, a final 25bp rate cut in December is projected. Bonds may face a short-term correction before a pot...
- Willinoy Sitorus
Strategy - JCI Down On MSCI’s Proposed Inclusion Methodology
Strategy | JCI Down on MSCI’s Proposed Inclusion Methodology The JCI fell 1.87% after MSCI proposed changes to free float calculation, triggering selling of large caps, especially conglomerate-theme stocks. The proposal implies higher free float thresholds for most MSCI EM Indonesian stocks, raising exclusion risks for some constituents. The methodology remains under consultation, with outcomes dependent on feedback and MSCI's final review by 31 Dec 25. Re-iterate our preference for big-cap lagg...
JPFA JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
AADI IJ ADARO ANDALAN INDONESIA
- Maskun Ramli
- Willinoy Sitorus
Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, October 28, 2025
Strategy | JCI Down on MSCI’s Proposed Inclusion Methodology The JCI fell 1.87% after MSCI proposed changes to free float calculation, triggering selling of large caps, especially conglomerate-theme stocks. The proposal implies higher free float thresholds for most MSCI EM Indonesian stocks, raising exclusion risks for some constituents. The methodology remains under consultation, with outcomes dependent on feedback and MSCI's final review by 31 Dec 25. Re-iterate our preference for big-cap lagg...
JPFA JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
AADI IJ ADARO ANDALAN INDONESIA
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Strategy - Tactical Rotation To Big Cap Laggards
There has been a positive US$194m mtd equity inflow, reversing last year’s persistent outflow, although banks remain the largest source of foreign selling as flows rotate toward gold and MSCI-linked names. Domestically, sentiment is turning more constructive for 4Q25-2026, supported by fiscal acceleration, pro-growth policies, monetary easing, and improving banking liquidity. If macro conditions stabilise, we see market leadership shifting from flow-driven to earnings-driven performance. We add ...
JPFA JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
AADI IJ ADARO ANDALAN INDONESIA
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Indonesia Daily - Monday, October 20, 2025
Strategy | Tactical Rotation to Big Cap Laggards There has been a positive US$194m mtd equity inflow, reversing last year’s persistent outflow, although banks remain the largest source of foreign selling as flows rotate toward gold and MSCI-linked names. Domestically, sentiment is turning more constructive for 4Q25-2026, supported by fiscal acceleration, pro-growth policies, monetary easing, and improving banking liquidity. If macro conditions stabilise, we see market leadership shifting from fl...
JPFA JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
AADI IJ ADARO ANDALAN INDONESIA
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Ken Lee
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, October 20, 2025
Greater China Company Results | Fuyao Glass (3606 HK/BUY/ HK$67.50/Target: HK$105.00) Fuyao Glass’ 3Q25 earnings miss stems from its margins, dragged by the US division and higher effective tax rate. Revenue grew 19% yoy on 11% sales volume growth and 7% ASP hike. Based on the lower margins, we trim our 2025-27 net profit forecasts by 5%/3%/2% to Rmb9.61b/Rmb10.98b/Rmb12.71b respectively, implying 19% CAGR. Earnings prospects remain positive on overseas market share gains, optimisation of pr...
BJC BERLI JUCKER PUBLIC CO. LTD.
KTC KRUNGTHAI CARD PCL
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
JPFA JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
COM7 COM7
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
CPALL TB CP ALL
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
AADI IJ ADARO ANDALAN INDONESIA
- Damon Shen
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- Jieqi Liu
- Jonathan Koh
- Malaysia Research Team
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
- Willinoy Sitorus
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, September 23, 2025
Greater China Sector Update | Property Property investment has declined since Jul 25 due to weak demand, LGFV financing controls, slow destocking and urban-redevelopment, and limited new loans. Sep 25 data showed a rebound in Tier 1 city home sales, led by Shanghai. Central government capital is needed. However, the existing policy stance points to a low possibility of direct injection by the central government. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT, with CR Land as our top pick. Indonesia Strategy | T...
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
BBL BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
4197 SIME DARBY BHD.
TISCO TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
TMB TMB BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
BAUTO BERMAZ AUTO BHD
KTB KONTOOR BRANDS
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
SCB SCB X PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
PECCA MK PECCA GROUP BHD
NTTDCR SP NTT DC REIT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
BNASTRA BINASTRA (BNASTRA MK)
- Willinoy Sitorus
Strategy - Takeaways From Indo Marketing And NDR Trip To Taiwan
Highlights • The strategy marketing and non-deal roadshows (NDR) for SSIA and AVIA in Taipei (Taiwan) had a total of 21 meetings. • Indonesia remains an attractive market overall based on general feedback given discounted valuations and lucrative dividends, though investors are mindful of underlying risks and caveats.
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
- Hendri Effendi
- Willinoy Sitorus
Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, September 23, 2025
Strategy | Takeaways From Marketing and NDR Trip to Taiwan The Indonesia strategy marketing and NDRs for SSIA and AVIA in Taipei had 21 meetings. Investors seem to be engaged in the Indonesia market, particularly given the attractive valuations of blue chips and lucrative dividend yields, though investors are mindful of underlying risks and caveats. Technical Analysis Bumi Resources | BUMI IJ Trading Buy Range: We have a technical Buy at Rp120, and a target price of Rp129. Merdeka Copper Gold...
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Strategy - Takeaways From Purbaya’s Hearing With Parliament
Highlights • Purbaya signalled a pro-growth pivot by accelerating fiscal disbursement and aligning with monetary easing to “turn on both engines.” • The MoF injected Rp200t into SOE banks via deposit-on-call at a placement rate of 4%, while urging BI not to sterilise the liquidity. • Local news reported that a possible 2026 budget revision with higher regional transfers aims to further reinforce fiscal channels. Purbaya would like to keep the budget deficit below 3% of GDP.
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Indonesia Daily - Monday, September 15, 2025
Strategy | Takeaways From Purbaya’s Hearing With Parliament The new Finance Minister signalled a pro-growth stance by channelling Rp200t of idle budget funds into SOE banks via deposit-on-call at 4% and urging BI not to sterilise liquidity. The move aims to revive credit flow, bolster household liquidity, and support consumer recovery. While BBNI and BMRI are most sensitive, BBNI and BBRI are better positioned to reprice costly deposits amid tight liquidity. Risks include fiscal dominance percep...
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
- Audrey Celia
- Ejann Hiew
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- Jonathan Koh
- Lester Siew
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
- Willinoy Sitorus
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, September 10, 2025
Greater China Sector Updates | Consumer In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are c...
AS7 ANTA SPORTS PRODUCTS LTD.
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
600132 CHONGQING BREWERY CO.LTD CLASS A
000858 WULIANGYE YIBIN CO. LTD. CLASS A
D05 DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
U11 UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD. (SINGAPORE)
EZQ CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY CO. LTD.
02331 LI NING COMPANY LIMITED
COM7 COM7
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
000333 MIDEA GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
0168 TSINGTAO BREWERY CO. LTD. CLASS H
06862 HAIDILAO INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.
GAM GAMUDA BHD
IOI IOI CORP BHD
1368 XTEP INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS
01876 BUDWEISER BREWING CO. APAC LTD.
6186 CHINA FEIHE LTD
KORE KEPPEL PACIFIC OAK US REIT
MNSO MINISO GROUP HOLDING ADS (N SHARES)
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
09922 JIUMAOJIU INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD.
- Audrey Celia
- Willinoy Sitorus
Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper (INKP IJ) - Integrated Pulp Giant On Expansion...
Highlights • We estimate 2025-28 EBITDA CAGR at over 15.5% on the capacity rampup of INKP’s new integrated brown and white paper plant in Karawang. We expect the plant to commence operations in 2026 and gradually ramp up production, further strengthening INKP’s integrated cost leadership structure. • Initiate coverage with BUY. Target price is Rp12,000, based on 9x 2026F PE. • INKP was removed from the MSCI emerging market list in Feb 25.
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