Brazil in focus, as we see downside to '25e

January players down 4% m-o-m

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1440.00) - Growing through the noise

We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to SEK1,440 (1,500), reflecting a 4% 2025e EPS cut following the EBITDA margin guidance for the year (66–68%). On the positive side, cash distribution should be at least cEUR1.1bn in 2025e (c100% of 2024 FCF), including near-term buybacks, and, in our view, as the recent negative consensus revisions stabilise, earnings and cash flow should be more decisive for the stock.

Awaiting the Asian recovery

Q4 in line, but lower '25 margin guidance

Kambi (Buy, TP: SEK210.00) - Growth from Brazilian stake

Kambi’s recent signings (e.g. KTO and Stake) and opportunities in the newly regulated Brazilian market support our view of positive revenue growth in 2025–2026e. In addition, there is the potential for efficiency initiatives introduced by the new CEO, and we expect decent Q4 results, supported by a busy sports calendar and healthy sports margins in European football. We reiterate our BUY and SEK210 target price.

Q4e: sales and EBITA up 15% & 19% y-o-y

ICE 2025: what we learned

Headwinds appear discounted

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1500.00) - A return to fundamentals

We have cut our 2025e EPS by 3% (Asia revenue growth from 13% to 10% YOY) and our target price to SEK1,500 (1,570), but reiterate our BUY. We find underlying fundamentals still-healthy and near-term negatives more than reflected in the stock. After a strong end to Q4 (albeit early days), our data implies a healthy start to 2025 (daily average players +10% QOQ). Our Q4e EBITDA is EUR364m (68.2% margin, -30bp QOQ).

December players up 11% m-o-m

First takes on UKGC regulatory review

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1570.00) - Wrapping player growth for Xmas

Our proprietary data tracker shows a very strong start to December (up 10% MOM), with growth in all segments. Accelerating player activity in the holiday season could result in QOQ player growth for Q4 (versus -9% in Q3 and -4% QTD in Q4). The situation in Georgia (union strike) has calmed down for Evolution, and healthy US market data bodes well for more near-term sales growth improvements.

B2B tracker stable into November

November players ~flat m-o-m

Kambi Group Plc: 1 director

A director at Kambi Group Plc bought 50,000 shares at 112.850SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 97/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clea...

Lack of visibility remains

Pre-announced EBITDA, but big EBIT miss

October player activity stabilising

Kambi (Buy, TP: SEK210.00) - Improving with sizeable buybacks

The Q3 sales growth was lacklustre YOY due to temporary headwinds, and we have cut our 2025e adj. EPS by 5%. But cash flow is improving (EUR60m net cash at end-Q3); the board announced a EUR12m buyback programme; and the outlook remains positive (customer pipeline, Brazil, efficiency focus and rising shareholder distribution). The negative overreaction on results day has created an attractive opportunity, and we reiterate our BUY and SEK210 target price.