A brewing challenge for the yards

Our 17th Annual Energy & Shipping Conference was well attended by investors and industry executives showcasing the still-growing interest for the sectors. Limited yard capacity is fuelling high newbuilding prices and raising freight rate expectations for the vast fleet renewal necessary in the coming decade. Long lead times underpin a bullish supply story for much of shipping in the coming years, albeit exposed to geopolitical risks affecting trade patterns. Our overall impression was general op...

Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding (Buy, TP: NOK555.00) - Cash should seep throu...

As we expect prosperous years ahead for car carrier shipping, we forecast strong, steady cash flow for Wilh. Wilhelmsen (WWI). Even after increasing our investment estimates, we arrive at a considerable overshoot that should find its way to investors at some point. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK555 (530).

Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding (Buy, TP: NOK530.00) - Deep value with strong...

We find deep value in Wilh. Wilhelmsen (WWI), with the share price at a 53% discount to our current SOTP, not even fully covering its NOK354/share ownership stake in Wallenius Wilhelmsen (WAWI). While we do not expect the gap to narrow considerably in the near term, we find comfort in the NOK110/share cash flow to equity by end-2025e. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK530 (465).

SAS (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Discontinuing coverage

We have discontinued coverage of SAS. Our last published recommendation, target price, and estimates should no longer be relied upon.

Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding (Buy, TP: NOK465.00) - Suggests the start of ...

A soft quarter in New Energy was offset by strong results in Maritime Services, and a very positive impact from favourable markets on the strategic holdings. The discount to our SOTP remains ~50%, despite the recent attempt at buybacks in Treasure, but we believe further upside potential in the WAWI stake along with more corporate action could narrow it. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK465 (455).

Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding Asa: 2 directors

A director at Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding Asa bought/maiden bought 4,000 shares at 260.000NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 70/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors ov...

Northern Lights

Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding (Buy, TP: NOK455.00) - Strong Q1; still ~50% ...

Q1 was strong, prompting us to raise our top-line and EBITDA forecasts, but the positives were more than offset by lower expectations for Wallenius Wilhelmsen. Despite the main shareholdings taking a hit, the stock remains ~50% below our current SOTP, signalling considerable value potential in our view. Pressure has been building for initiatives to close the value gap; in the meantime we like its exposure to car carriers, attractive valuation, and tailwinds for its core business. We reiterate ou...

Generally an optimistic bunch

DNB hosted its 16th annual Energy & Shipping Conference. On day two, we hosted sector panels and presentations for dry bulk, LPG, car carriers, LNG and tankers with senior management representatives from 29 shipping companies. A resurging Chinese economy coupled with tight supply outlook, strong demand growth potential and regulations putting pressure to remove older vessels were among the common themes. Overall, the discussions showcase optimism across the sectors.

Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding (Buy, TP: NOK455.00) - A freak wave of cash f...

The proposed NOK10 DPS for 2022 deviates from an expected ~NOK36/share free cash flow for 2023, which in our view signals an appetite for growth after a decade of limited cash flow from its main investment. With an attractively placed asset base to scale for growth, we see the core issue as a substantial discount to its SOTP. Hoarding cash will hardly help, and we have cut our target price to NOK455 (462), while we reiterate our BUY.

Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding (Buy, TP: NOK462.00) - Car shipping and offsh...

We have only slightly adjusted our overall forecasts following the Q3 results, as our estimate revisions across Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding’s (WWI) divisions largely offset each other, and we still believe the company is undervalued. Its exposure to prosperous car shipping and offshore markets leaves the company well-positioned for growth, in our view. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK462 (392).

Northern Lights

SAS (Sell, TP: SEK0.05) - Q3 hit by pilot strike and fuel prices

Q3 adj. PTP was SEK-2.1bn, badly hit by the pilot strike and higher fuel prices. We reiterate our SELL, but have cut our target price to SEK0.05 (0.1), reflecting negative estimate revisions and greater dilution for equity holders.

Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding (Buy, TP: NOK392.00) - Look under the bonnet

Q2 saw an ongoing recovery across business segments, and we continue to find Maritime Services and New Energy well placed to benefit from ongoing momentum in their sectors. WAWI’s market cap has dropped 22% in recent days, but we expect a meaningful rebound once investor sentiment realigns with the fundamental outlook and valuation, leaving considerable upside potential for WWI shareholders. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to NOK392 (408).

Northern Lights

SAS (Sell, TP: SEK0.10) - Still a lot of work to do

Q2 was yet another rough quarter for SAS, and while the outlook for the summer looks bright, it has so far made limited progress in its discussions with its various stakeholders regarding the burden-sharing in SAS Forward. Given the upcoming equity issue and debt conversion with likely significant shareholder dilution, we reiterate our SELL and SEK0.10 target price.

SAS (Sell, TP: SEK0.10) - SAS Forward standing still

SAS’s elevated debt level and uncompetitive cost position remain challenging as there has been limited, if any, progress in its restructuring programme. We reiterate our SELL and have lowered our target price to SEK0.1 (0.4) on estimate cuts and the risk of significant dilution if the restructuring proves successful.

Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding (Buy, TP: NOK407.86) - Underlying value to ma...

We are positive on the car shipping outlook due to limited fleet growth and greater High & Heavy volumes, which should benefit WWI’s underlying holdings. In our view, this represents considerable upside potential to our current SOTP valuation, should WAWI achieve our target price. Maritime Services has seen good activity levels with a faster recovery, and we still see upside potential on further activity levels. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK408 (346).

Conflict-affected discussions

DNB hosted its 15th annual Energy & Shipping Conference. On day two, we hosted sector panels and presentations for car carriers, dry bulk, tankers, LNG and LPG with management representatives from 30 shipping companies. The conflict in Ukraine was a main theme, and although uncertainty reigns, there were several optimistic takeaways across the sectors.

All eyes on Hong Kong

Covid-19 is spreading rapidly in Hong Kong, a potential forewarning of what may come in China. With less-efficient vaccines and an ambition to move away from its ‘dynamic zero’ Covid-19 policy, continued containment and economic growth are likely to be weighed against one another. The impact on shipping is still unclear, but widespread lockdowns in China would be negative for most shipping segments, in our view. If the pandemic-related measures are eased, we see a likelihood of less congestion a...