reports
- Benyamin Mikael
Property – Undemanding Valuation Amid Increased Uncertainty
CTRA achieved a record-breaking Rp11t in marketing sales for 2024 (+8% yoy), while SMRA underperformed with Rp4.37t (-3.4% yoy), and BSDE is expected to meet its target. In 2025, total marketing sales are forecasted to grow 4.4% yoy. Two main catalysts in 2025 are additional rounds of interest rate cuts and VAT exemptions. The property sector is trading at an undemanding valuation of -1.5SD to the five-year mean discount to RNAV. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top picks: BSDE and CTRA.
- Benyamin Mikael
- Maskun Ramli
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - 2024 JCI Return Analysis
The JCI delivered a 3.7% decline in 2024, underperforming the MSASJ after two previous years of outperformance. IDXENER was the top performing sector in the JCI with a 31.9% return. IDXFIN dropped 6.2% in 2024 with big banks delivering negative returns. Gains of over 100% have been observed in MLPT, SRAJ, JSPT, PTRO, PANI, CLEO and BRMS. The worst performers are SMGR, UNVR, MDKA, GGRM, TOWR, TLKM and HMSP. For 2025, our top picks are ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BRIS, CMRY, KLBF, SMRA, ACES and GOTO.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
BRIS BANK BRISYARIAH TBK
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Monday, January 6, 2025
Strategy: 2024 JCI Return Analysis: Our top picks are ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BRIS, CMRY, KLBF, SMRA, ACES and GOTO. We have an end-25 target of 8,200 for the JCI. TRADERS’ CORNER Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ): Technical BUY Trimegah Bangun Persada (NCKL IJ): Technical BUY
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
BRIS BANK BRISYARIAH TBK
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - Key Takeaways From Regional Strategy Conference
The key takeaways from our regional KL conference are: a) most investors agree that Prabowo’s programmes are positive for Indonesia; b) investors are concerned about the widening budget deficit; c) foreign investors are pleased that local fund managers are buying; d) there is interest in syariah banks, particularly BRIS; and e) investors are inquiring about ACES vs Mr DIY Indonesia. Our top picks are ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BBTN, BRIS, CMRY, KLBF, SMRA, ACES and GOTO.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
BRIS BANK BRISYARIAH TBK
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, December 10, 2024
Strategy: Key Takeaways From Regional Strategy Conference: Our top picks are ASII, BMRI, BBNI, BBTN, BRIS, CMRY, KLBF, SMRA, ACES and GOTO. We have an end-25 target of 8,200 for the JCI. TRADERS’ CORNER PP Persero (PTPP IJ): Technical BUY Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ): Technical BUY
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
BRIS BANK BRISYARIAH TBK
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - Focus On Beneficiaries Of Domestic Policies
Trump 2.0 is unlikely to deter Indonesia’s exports to the US as Indonesia should be able to maintain its cost competitiveness. Interest rates are likely to be reduced by 100bp in 2025 and our economist continues to foresee a stronger rupiah. For 2025, investors should focus on the beneficiaries of domestic policies, such as the automobile, banking, consumer, property and technology sectors. Our top picks are BBCA, BBNI, BMRI, BBTN, ASII, SMRA, CTRA, GOTO, CMRY, ACES, SIDO and KLBF.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Hendri Effendi
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Friday, November 29, 2024
Strategy: Focus On Beneficiaries Of Domestic Policies: Our top picks are BBCA, BBNI, BMRI, BBTN, ASII, SMRA, CTRA, GOTO, CMRY, ACES, SIDO and KLBF. We have an end-25 target of 8,200 for the JCI. TRADERS’ CORNER Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat (MIKA IJ): Technical BUY Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ): Technical BUY
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Benyamin Mikael
- Johnny Yum
- Paula Ruth
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - Focus On Beneficiaries Of Domestic Policies
Trump 2.0 is unlikely to deter Indonesia’s exports to the US as Indonesia should be able to maintain its cost competitiveness. Interest rates are likely to be reduced by 100bp in 2025 and our economist continues to foresee a stronger rupiah. For 2025, investors should focus on the beneficiaries of domestic policies, such as the automobile, banking, consumer, property and technology sectors. Our top picks are BBCA, BBNI, BMRI, BBTN, ASII, SMRA, CTRA, GOTO, CMRY, ACES, SIDO and KLBF. We have an en...
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Benyamin Mikael
Summarecon Agung (SMRA IJ) - Potential Further Re-rating From SMIP IPO...
SMRA posted a strong 2Q24 net profit of Rp312b (+83.4% yoy). Following the sale of Summarecon Mall Kelapa Gading to SMIP, the company is considering an IPO for SMIP. We believe SMIP's valuation has the potential to match or surpass SMRA's current market cap. The newly-launched product in Bogor and new township in Tangerang are expected to boost marketing sales in the following months. We maintain BUY on SMRA with a higher target price of Rp865, driven by the potential IPO, rate cuts and marketin...
- Benyamin Mikael
- Maskun Ramli
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Benyamin Mikael
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
- Philip Wong
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, October 08, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Hong Kong Developers And Landlords Expect the strong performance of the stock market to have a positive impact on property prices. INDONESIA Update Summarecon Agung (SMRA IJ/BUY/Rp700/Target: Rp865) Potential further re-rating from SMIP IPO and more rate cuts. MALAYSIA Update KPJ Healthcare (KPJ MK/HOLD/RM2.07/Target: RM1.90) KPJ’s transformation programme continues to gathe...
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
00823 LINK REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
U96 SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD.
B8O YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING (HOLDINGS) LTD.
00014 HYSAN DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BN4 KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED
01997 WHARF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT CO. LTD.
KPJ KPJ HEALTHCARE BERHAD
REXI REX INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD
MPM MARCO POLO MARINE LTD
RHP RH PETROGAS
00017 NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
123F 123FAHRSCHULE SE
STM SEATRIUM LTD
Z29 029 GROUP SE
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Chong Lee Len
- Damon Shen
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- Jieqi Liu
- Jonathan Koh
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Krit Tanarattananon
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Sunny Chen
- Tham Mun Hon
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, July 16, 2024
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity 2Q24 growth below expectations. Strategy China And Hong Kong Property Sharper property price decline in 1H24 weighing on margins of Chinese developers; upcoming interest rate cut to support value of Hong Kong retail landlords. Update Kingmed Diagnostics (603882 CH/BUY/Rmb38.10/Target: Rmb35.00) 1H24 and 2024 results under pressu...
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
00823 LINK REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
CPF CHAROEN POKPHAND FOODS PUBLIC CO. LTD.
S63 SINGAPORE TECHNOLOGIES ENGINEERING LTD
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
ESSO ESSO (THAILAND)
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
TU THAI UNION GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
00014 HYSAN DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
5347 TENAGA NASIONAL BHD
01997 WHARF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT CO. LTD.
MLK MALAKOFF CORP BHD
MTC MUANGTHAI CAPITAL PCL
CPALL TB CP ALL
GMB GAS MALAYSIA BHD
OSP OSOTSPA PUBLIC CO. LTD.
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
603882 GUANGZHOU KINGMED DIAGNOSTICS GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
CICT CAPITALAND INTEGRATED COMMERCIAL TRUST
SCGP SCG PACKAGING PCL
TIDLOR NGERN TID LOR PCL
00017 NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
Z29 029 GROUP SE
BTG BETAGRO PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
PEKAT PEKAT GROUP BHD
- Limartha Adhiputra
Summarecon Agung (SMRA IJ) - Satisfactory 1H24 Presales Achievement An...
SMRA successfully achieved presales of Rp1.7t in 1H24, up 7% yoy and contributing to 34% of its 2024 presales target. However, SMRA is optimistic of achieving its 2024 presales target of Rp5t as it will launch new products and townships in 2H24. We estimate 2024-25 NPAT at Rp906b (+18.3% yoy) and Rp944b (+4.3% yoy) respectively. Maintain BUY with a target price of Rp700 as SMRA’s share price is still attractive and could improve due to rate cut expectations.
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Maskun Ramli
- Limartha Adhiputra
Property – Resilient Amid Uncertainties
We believe marketing sales achievement could improve from 2Q24 onwards as new product launches continue to take place. However, BSDE and SMRA could report softer earnings in 2Q24 after a boost in 1Q24 results, while CTRA could deliver a more consistent revenue growth in 2Q24. We also note that property companies are optimistic in achieving their 2024 presales targets as mortgage rates remain attractive despite the recent interest rate hike. Maintain OVERWEIGHT with CTRA as our top pick.
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Maskun Ramli
- Damon Shen
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jieqi Liu
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Kate Luang
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Nurul Nazira Binti Abdullah
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Notes - Friday, March 22, 2024
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property: Channel checks and observations of Shanghai/Hong Kong primary markets. Results AAC Technologies (2018 HK/BUY/ HK$22.70/ Target: HK$27.20): 2H23: Slight beat in results; outlook in 2024 seems promising. Sunny Optical (2382 HK/BUY/HK$46.85/Target: HK$63.00): 2023: Results in line but forward shipment guidance weaker than expected. Small/Mid Cap Highlights Crystal International (2232 HK/NOT RATED/HK$3.30): 2023: Results in line with guidance, bul...
- Limartha Adhiputra
Summarecon Agung (SMRA IJ) - 4Q23: Weakness In NPAT As Property Delive...
SMRA reported 4Q23 net profit of Rp113b, falling 48.5% qoq and 64.2% yoy on declining property deliveries and higher contract liabilities interest expenses. On the other hand, 2023 net profit hiked 22.5% yoy to Rp766t, below our and market estimates. Going forward, with 2024 marketing sales target remaining at Rp5.0t and recurring income growth of 10.6% yoy in 2024-25, we expect NPAT of Rp887b (+15.7% yoy) and Rp944b (+6.5% yoy) respectively. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of Rp700.
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Friday, March 22, 2024
GoTo GoJek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ/HOLD/Rp67/Target: Rp69): 4Q23: Rp78.8t impairment – investing in scalable business. Summarecon Agung (SMRA IJ/BUY/Rp525/Target: Rp700): 4Q23: Weakness in NPAT as property deliveries fall; results below expectations. TRADERS’ CORNER Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA IJ): Technical BUY Summarecon Agung (SMRA IJ): Technical BUY
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