EME Equity Market – December 2025 Czech PX the best performer in December; no market in the red. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.4% mom in EUR terms and 4.6% mom in USD terms in December. The Czech PX was the top performer, adding 7.6% mom; followed by the Romanian BET (+7.1% mom); the Polish WIG 20 (+6.4% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Turkish ISE 30 (+0.4% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+0.2% mom; all in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • Lamda Development: 3Q25 - malls and marinas steady, bond and land sale to boost liquidity • Kety: 4Q25 results and 2026E guidance conference call NEUTRAL • Orlen: to acquire butadiene plant at Plock, Poland, from Synthos NEGATIVE • PGE: to acquire a 350MW offshore project from RWE POSITIVE • Polish utilities: offshore auction results - minimum price at PLN 477/MWh POSITIVE • Czech Republic macro: CNB extends the pause
HEADLINES: • Bank of Cyprus: paid to wait (stays BUY) • Polish utilities: 2030 capacity market price set at PLN 465/kW/year NEUTRAL • Orlen: receives response from Grupa Azoty about offer for Grupa Azoty Polyolefins NEUTRAL • CEZ: new government aiming to reduce power bills by c.10% or more NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: preparing to drill offshore Bulgaria by the year-end NEUTRAL
HEADLINES: • CCC: shareholders ask for 2m share buyback POSITIVE • Jeronimo Martins: court approves PLN 160m fine from Antimonopoly Office NEGATIVE • Allegro/InPost: EU to introduce EUR 3 payment for all packages coming from outside the community NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: PLN 19m 2017 waste-fee case closed NEUTRAL • Kety: 4Q25E preliminary results preview – flat yoy EBITDA in a tough environment (due on 17 December) • Pepco Group: 2H25E preview – EBITDA decline of 5% yoy expected (due on 17 December) N...
Brent crude oil prices decreased USD 0.3/bbl mom in November, to USD 63.7/bbl. In October, OPEC production hit its highest level since April 2023, reaching 28.5mbpd. The WOOD benchmark refining margin increased to USD 18.7/bbl, its best reading since September 2023. Olefin margins were lower but polyolefins margins improved marginally.
HEADLINES: • Poland macro: NBP cuts again, with inflation back at target • Wirtualna Polska: sells Invia Flights Germany at EUR 42.3m EV, 9.0x 2024 EV/EBITDA POSITIVE • WOOD's Winter Wonderland EME Conference 2025: Postcards from Prague • Allegro • Asseco Poland • Benefit Systems • Budimex • CCC • Kety • PGE • Tauron • Primoco UAV • Aquila Part Prod Com S.A. • MedLife • Mavi • Georgia Capital • GEVORKYAN • Krka • Medicover
EME Equity Market – November 2025 Czech PX leads in November, Türkiye the only loser. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.5% mom in EUR terms and 2.1% mom in USD terms in November. The Czech PX was the top performer, adding 4.7% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE and the Hungarian BUX (+4.4% and +3.7% mom, respectively, in EUR terms). The Romanian BET and Polish WIG 20 were also in the green (+1.3% and +1.0% mom in EUR terms). The only loser was the Turkish ISE 30 (-2.0% mom in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • Kaspi.kz: too cheap to ignore (stays BUY) • VIGO Photonics: 3Q25 results review – adjusted EBITDA over 2x above our estimate; order intake up 24% yoy POSITIVE • CCC: final 3Q25 EBITDA spot on prelims NEUTRAL • Rainbow Tours: 3Q25 conference call highlights NEUTRAL • Polish banks: President signs bill on higher CIT for the banks • Murapol: main shareholder sells 20.5% of shares in ABB NEUTRAL • Primoco UAV: promising tactical UAV producer (HOLD - initiation of coverage) • CTP: enters...
We keep our BUY on Kaspi, with a slightly lower price target (PT) of USD 92.0/share. The company is trading at 6.3x P/E and 2.7x P/BV for 2025E, on our estimates. We believe Kaspi’s recent underperformance has its reasons. However, warts and all, even with our conservative assumptions (including a 32.5% COE for the non-bank part of the business), we see the current valuation as too cheap to ignore. If we are right about the earnings and buybacks, the EPS could increase at a 30% CAGR in 2026-27E....
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: dividends in EMEA – yield hunting after markets have repriced • Text: 2Q25-26 (calendar 3Q25) results – EBITDA down 29% yoy, 8% below the consensus NEGATIVE • Rainbow Tours: strong 3Q25 beat on EBITDA and net profit, following the strong gross margin and cost discipline POSITIVE • CD Projekt: 3Q25 results review – 3Q25 EBITDA up 92% yoy, 11-15% above our and the consensus estimates POSITIVE • PGE: stable to declining recurring EBITDA outlook for 2026E NEUTRAL • H...
The macro backdrop entering 2026E remains broadly supportive for high-dividend strategies across Emerging Europe and the frontier markets, but the opportunity set has clearly narrowed. After a year of sharp repricing across the WOOD universe, the high dividend conditions of 2024-25 have largely disappeared, as a result of many sectors rerating materially. As a result, high-dividend exposure is no longer a broad regional trade: the most compelling opportunities are now concentrated. However, the ...
HEADLINES: • Develia: lighten the load, lift the pace (BUY - initiation of coverage) • PGE: 3Q25 results fully in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: 3Q25 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 3% yoy, 4% above the consensus POSITIVE • Doosan Skoda Power: 3Q25 weak; 2025E guidance lowered; downside risk for our 2025E estimates NEGATIVE • Premier Energy: 3Q25 in line with our estimates; 2025E guidance unchanged NEUTRAL • OPAP: 3Q25 results in line; EBITDA flat yoy, at EUR 214m, on to...
HEADLINES: • OTE: multiple tailwinds supporting the equity story (stays BUY) • PZU: very strong 3Q25 bottom line, strong beat vs. expectations, but slower revenue growth raises questions for the future POSITIVE • Allegro: 3Q25 above expectations; FY25E guidance trimmed due to slower November NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: 3Q25 results review – adjusted EBITDA down 12% yoy, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • Grupa Pracuj: 3Q25 results – adjusted EBITDA up 3% yoy, 2% above our forecast and 11% above ...
HEADLINES: • ING BSK: eyes 19% ROE and is more open to higher dividend payouts in its strategy update POSITIVE • Warsaw Stock Exchange: strong 3Q25 delivery with a 7% beat to consensus POSITIVE • Murapol: 3Q25E close to our forecasts with weaker revenue, but stronger gross margin NEUTRAL • Orlen: swaps some Norwegian assets with DNO NEUTRAL • Athens Exchange Group: Euronext reportedly reaches the acquisition threshold NEUTRAL • Hidroelectrica: 3Q25 net profit of RON 0.73bn, 14% lower yoy; conse...
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