reports
- Emily Liu
Hybridan Research: Sector Review: Artificial intelligence in UK cybers...
Artificial intelligence (AI) is a double-edged sword in cybersecurity. Whilst new AI models, architectures, and innovations are emerging to protect the security posture of organisations, attackers are also benefiting from deepfakes, sophisticated phishing, and automation of malicious codes. To ensure the impact of AI on cybersecurity to be a net-positive, we need to pit good AI against bad AI. Point solutions enhanced with machine learning: Global cybersecurity has been built with point soluti...
Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 26 Mar 24
26th March 2024 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object...
- Mike Jeremy
Major £135m contract award
Cohort announces that its subsidiary SEA (Systems Engineering and Assessment Ltd.) has been awarded a major contract by the UK’s Ministry of Defence to provide Electronic Warfare Counter Measures (Increment 1a) (EWCM 1a) to the Royal Navy with a total value of at least £135m. This includes provision and support of SEA’s Trainable Decoy Launcher System, Ancilia. At the FY 24 interim results Cohort had commented on an overall “increased tempo” of order intake. The Group reported a closing order b...
Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 29 Jan 24
29th January 2024 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment obje...
Cohort: 1 director
A director at Cohort maiden bought 15,000 shares at 545p and the significance rating of the trade was 73/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly show...
Hybridan Small Cap Feast
13th December 2023 Small Cap Team will take a break until Monday 8 January 2024 after this Friday 15th December. Merry Christmas to all our readers. @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be...
- Mike Jeremy
Strong H1 24 results backed by a record order book
For the six months to 31 October 2023 Cohort reported revenue of £94.3m, +22%YoY, EBIT (adj.) of £6.0m, +20%YoY and (adj.) EPS of 10.36p (adj. dil., 10.33p). The closing order book further increased to £353.9m (FY23, £329.1m). With £90m of orders deliverable in H2 the Group reports that 95% of market consensus revenue outlook is covered, whilst the order book has longevity to 2033. The net cash position was £13.3m compared to £15.6m at year-end FY23 and H1 23 net debt of £0.6m boosted by operat...
- Mike Jeremy
AGM update on growing momentum in orders
In a statement to accompany today’s AGM, Cohort PLC reported that, following a year of record earnings in FY23, the Group has continued to build its order book, adding a further £90m in contract wins since the start of FY24. Consequently, as of 22 September the order book had risen to £370m, representing revenue cover of 93%. Compared to a year-end FY23 net cash position of £15.6m, net funds at the end of August were £15.2m, providing sufficient cash in conjunction with banking facilities to b...
- Mike Jeremy
Record results in FY23 and positive outlook
For the year to 30 April 2023, Cohort reported record revenue of £182.7m +33%YoY, matched by record (adj.) EBIT of £19.1m, +23%YoY. The closing order book of £329.1m (FY22: £291.0m) was also at a high, boosted by order intake of £220.9m; by June this had reached £360m. EPS rose 17%YoY to 36.48p/share, with the proposed total dividend of 13.4p/share +10%YoY. Notwithstanding a strategically firm defence outlook – based on the conflict in Ukraine, tensions in the South China Sea, and cohesion amon...
- Mike Jeremy
FY 23 trading update: ahead and unified
In a Trading Update for the year to 30 April 2023, Cohort plc expects performance to be slightly ahead of market expectations based on higher revenue. We note FY23 net funds reported at c.£15.0m - well ahead of ED estimated, at £4.6m - strong order intake of c.£218m (FY22: £186.7m), and a closing order book of £325m - at the Interim £304.2m. This underpins £145m, i.e. 83%, of our FY 24 estimated revenue, compared with 69% in FY23 (E). Overall, the update confirms the strength of momentum into th...
- Mike Jeremy
Closing FY23 orders highlight group attractions
Finland joining NATO; the leak of classified US documents relating to the war in Ukraine; recent Chinese military drills around Taiwan: defence-related news flow has remained prominent in areas of present military tension. Following a strong first half, Cohort PLC itself is closing FY23 with contract extensions at MASS and CHESS totalling c. £30m over periods of up to 7 years, with a focus on e-warfare. We noted at the Interim that over £80m of orders deliverable in the second half equates t...
- Toby Thorrington
Cohort - Defence remains an increasing priority
Cohort’s expertise in innovative defence and security products and services are increasingly suitable for a wide range of global customers whose budgets are likely to rise. It is in a prime position to benefit from the growth in global defence spending that should result from increased geopolitical tension. We expect a return to sustainable organic growth in the current year accompanied by strong cash flow. An FY24e P/E multiple of 11.8x is undemanding, accompanied by 10% dividend income growth.
- Mike Jeremy
Record closing order book
For the six months to 31 October 2022, Cohort PLC reported a strong performance: revenue was up 29%YoY to £77.5m; an operating profit (adj.) of £5.0m was achieved (H1 22: £1.7m); and EBITDA (adj.) was £7.1m. Order intake of £88.6m resulted in a record closing order book of £304.2m. The interim dividend is raised 10% to 4.25p/share. Absorption of working capital meant that H1 net debt was £0.6m; however, Cohort reports that as of 9th December net funds were £7.6m. Added to H1 revenue, over £80m ...
- Toby Thorrington
Cohort - Termination of coverage
Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Schroder Asia Pacific (SDP), Fundsmith Emerging Equities Trust (FEET), Cohort (CHRT) and Akobo Minerals (AKOBO). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.
- Toby Thorrington
Cohort - Reversing anticipated FY24 tax benefit
In our recent note following the trading update on 26 September 2022, we upgraded our FY24 EPS estimate to reflect an expected cut in future UK corporation tax rates. As the proposed tax cut has now been withdrawn, it is necessary to reverse that adjustment. As a result, Cohort is trading at a still undemanding FY24e multiple of 13.6x and, while falling by 6% to 683p, the DCF value remains at a substantial premium to the current share price.
- Toby Thorrington
Cohort - Order book supports return to growth
Cohort’s trading update ahead of its AGM and capital markets day continues to indicate the FY23 trading performance is ahead of the prior year. A continued strong level of order intake supported by UK MOD activity appears to be mitigating some ongoing supply chain delays, mainly affecting EID in Portugal. Our group FY23 estimates remain unchanged. For FY24 we now assume a lower tax rate which lifts our EPS estimate by c 7%. The resulting FY24 P/E of 12.6x looks increasingly undemanding with the ...
- Mike Jeremy
Confident AGM statement and Q1 update
Cohort has reported order wins since the start of the financial year of over £70m and a resulting order book of over £300m, indicative of c.95% cover of consensus FY23 revenue outlook. Encouragingly, order book longevity continues to increase. The most recent events in the war in Ukraine serve as a reminder of the renewed emphasis on defence preparedness across NATO and in the UK. Cohort reports increased levels of activity from the UK MOD, highlighting MCL – specialist in electronic communic...
- Toby Thorrington
Cohort - Making good progress at SEA
Cohort’s subsidiary, SEA, has continued its strong order intake momentum by announcing a major new £34m support contract for the Royal Navy. The order augments the improving prospects for SEA as sales activity normalises following the pandemic hiatus. It also further underpins future revenue visibility at the group level, which was already strong with order cover at 90% of FY23 market consensus sales estimates in July although supply chain issues remain a risk. As Cohort’s defence focus returns ...
- Mike Jeremy
Initiation note - 'Record orders bode well'
The nature of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and its impact on near-term Cohort performance, is hard to predict. However, the recent change in stance by NATO and in general towards overseas defence, adds both confidence and momentum to our medium-term outlook for Cohort. The standout feature of recent FY results was a record year-end order book of £291m. This underpins £128m or 78% of market FY23 revenue outlook and gives increased visibility and management confidence in FY23 performance whi...
- Toby Thorrington
Cohort - Defence prioritisation to strengthen demand
Cohort’s position as a growing international defence company is being increasingly recognised as the sector gains relevance for governments and investors alike. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is stimulating short-term operational requirements but, more importantly, has initiated a return to higher long-term defence spending commitments from NATO members. Cohort’s positioning in the training and supply of critical capabilities to its customers should benefit from the enhanced environment. FY22 w...
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