reports
- Russell Waller
Iliad (Equal Weight) Q2 24: Strong performance, but slower MSR growth...
Iliad has posted yet another quarter of good results; key SR trends are all slightly better, as is EBITDAaL inc and ex BTS. For those looking for a read across to SFR results later today, French MSR growth is a touch slower, as are both French fixed and mobile net adds, which could mean SFR has better KPIs but weaker SR trends in our view (albeit the back book changes from SFR could be a key offset).
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €14, +47%) Altice France (SFR) - Most preferred Ilia...
There has been a lot of focus on the recent change in mobile price points from SFR/Bouygues. Orange has underperformed the CAC40 by c10% over the last 10 days. Most commentary we have seen, seems to worry that the move by SFR will start a new price war at the high end. We think that is probably not going to happen, and explain why in this report. That is good news for Orange, that looks oversold in our view.
- Russell Waller
Iliad Q1 24: Impressive drop-through of SR to EBITDA in France
Iliad has posted another quarter of good results; SR trends are broadly unchanged, but EBITDA growth has improved materially as French SR drops through at a higher-rate to EBITDA. This is flattered slightly by energy, and BTS distorts the picture, but we estimate underlying EBITDA growth is c10% y/y from +c6% y/y in France.
- Russell Waller
Iliad Q4 23: Good revenue growth, but slower EBITDA; positive read a...
Iliad continues to perform very nicely in KPI and SR terms in France, Italy and Poland. Group y/y EBITDA trends are slower sequentially however, but the underlying (ex BTS) change is less than the headline delta, but its hard to know what underlying trends are country by country due to lack of disclosure. All of the French operators have now reported apart from SFR; if we assume similar market SR growth to Q3, then it would appear that SFR has had a marginally better quarter in Q4 (SFR report la...
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 140p, +100%) M&A Watch: How Iliad could still buy Voda...
Vodafone’s recent announcement that they are selling their Italian assets to Fastweb will likely have frustrated Xavier Niel, who we know has been keen to do a deal with Vodafone Italy for a number of years. Is this the end of the story? We think it might not be, and if Vodafone won’t sell the asset to him, then maybe he should acquire the whole of Vodafone.
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