Iliad (Equal Weight) Q3 24: Good EBITDA performance, but slower MSR ...

Iliad has had a good EBITDAaL quarter, but revenue trends in France (mobile) and Italy are slower. It looks like the price competition in French mobile is having an impact.

Vodafone (Buy, 140p, +100%) Post call thoughts: What is needed to hit...

Vodafone’s H1 earnings call recently wrapped up with the stock having sold off during and after the call. We review our thoughts on this and in this note show some further analysis on what would be required to meet the FY EBITDA guidance based on the new comments given in the call.

Vodafone (Buy, 140p, +100%) H1 25 - Questions still lingering in Germ...

Vodafone has reported their H1 results, and although headline numbers were in line with expectations and all guidance has been reiterated.

Altice International (Over weight) Digi (Equal weight) NOS (Neutral, T...

Digi launched in Portugal, one week ago – read our take HERE. In this report we look at how the launch has been received in Portugal (including a run-through of tariff changes by the incumbents).

Vodafone UK-3 merger: Detailed review of CMA remedy paper

GERMAN ALTNET UPDATE: What will be the key to success?

Last week, we reviewed the UK altnet market. So this week, we turn our attention to Germany and how the fibre challengers are developing in that market. We have done a lot of work over the past few months on the MDU market in Germany for TeleColumbus and OXG. So now, we specifically focus on Deutsche Glasfaser and the recent UGG/ Infrafibre deal, as these players mount their challenge against DT in the SDU market.

UK Telcos Impact from higher employers' taxation in upcoming Budget

Over the weekend, it has been widely reported that the upcoming Budget this Wednesday will include a 2pp rise for employer national insurance tax. In this brief note, we run through the financial implications of this for the UK telecoms companies (BT, VMO2, TalkTalk and Vodafone) and who is most exposed.

Vodafone should be bold: Buy out OXG minority Unlocking synergies fro...

This week we have the DT CMD and therefore the topic of German fibre build will likely be in focus. Over the past few months, we have written a number of thematic notes looking at this topic in more detail:

Orange (Buy, TP: €14, +35%) Altice France (SFR); High Yield (Overweigh...

Last night Bouygues announced a surprise change to tariffs and updated some of its guidance. The new tariffs revolve around discounts for multiple SIMs, and follow on from Iliad’s family plan announcement on 1 October. We give our take on the new plans and the impact to the market in this short piece.

Iliad (Equal Weight) Q2 24: Strong performance, but slower MSR growth...

Iliad has posted yet another quarter of good results; key SR trends are all slightly better, as is EBITDAaL inc and ex BTS. For those looking for a read across to SFR results later today, French MSR growth is a touch slower, as are both French fixed and mobile net adds, which could mean SFR has better KPIs but weaker SR trends in our view (albeit the back book changes from SFR could be a key offset).

Vodafone (Buy, 140p, +89%) Hidden upside in the non-EU assets

Today, our colleague Chris Hoare has published two thematic notes looking at Sub-Saharan African telecoms companies. These focus on the potential for market structures and revenues to improve, and especially after periods of currency weakness (which has been notable in Egypt and Turkey).

FWA in Europe: Maybe it isn't accelerating Analysis of Hutchison's H1...

Clearly the biggest issue for them is whether the merger with Vodafone UK will be approved or not. As one would also expect they couldn’t be drawn on any new substantive comments on this while the CMA process is ongoing. For our detailed thoughts from May on the CMA Phase 1 findings on that deal, please see our expert call on the topic.

Vodafone (Buy, 135p, +91%) Q1 25 - Assessing a revised outlook for Ge...

Vodafone’s Q1 results are now boosted by some additional (and supportive) EBITDA disclosure, but the ongoing fly in the ointment is still their German broadband KPI trend which remains unresolved.

EU Towers/ Vodafone Our take on Vantage selldown

This morning Vodafone finally announced that they have sold a further 10% stake in Oak Holdings (the Vantage Towers holding company) to the consortium led by GIP and KKR, for €1.3bn of proceeds. In this brief note, we run through what this implies for Vodafone and other tower valuations.

EU Telecoms: Half-time report 2024 Sector should still be able to out...

European Telecoms has had a reasonable first half of 2024 – up 7% vs. the market up 9% - and is up 15% since January 2022 – bang in line with the EU market. The sector trades in line with the market on P/E for similar earnings growth, but we still see two major structural levers of upside:

Orange/SFR/Iliad/Bouygues More French mobile tariff changes

There have been further changes in the French mobile pricing environment, this time by Sosh (Orange sub brand). We give our take in this short piece, and also update our views on the other recent changes as well.

Vodafone (Buy, £1.35, +88%) Might Vodafone be able to extract cash fr...

Vodafone’s decision to sell Softbank KK in Japan back in 2006 and swap the proceeds into Hutchison India in 2007 might well go down as one of the worst telecom M&A swaps in history. Vodafone’s exposure to India has caused nothing but difficulties for them, but this morning Vodafone announced that they have sold an 18% stake in Indus Towers through a block trade, raising €1.7bn in gross proceeds.

Orange (Buy, TP: €14, +47%) Altice France (SFR) - Most preferred Ilia...

There has been a lot of focus on the recent change in mobile price points from SFR/Bouygues. Orange has underperformed the CAC40 by c10% over the last 10 days. Most commentary we have seen, seems to worry that the move by SFR will start a new price war at the high end. We think that is probably not going to happen, and explain why in this report. That is good news for Orange, that looks oversold in our view.

Iliad Q1 24: Impressive drop-through of SR to EBITDA in France

Iliad has posted another quarter of good results; SR trends are broadly unchanged, but EBITDA growth has improved materially as French SR drops through at a higher-rate to EBITDA. This is flattered slightly by energy, and BTS distorts the picture, but we estimate underlying EBITDA growth is c10% y/y from +c6% y/y in France.

Vodafone (Buy, 135p, +87%) Thoughts post-call

Vodafone’s full-year earnings call has just wrapped up and in this note, we run through our key takeaways.