Vodafone (Buy, 135p, +87%) India value extraction on the horizon?

Vodafone’s lock-up in India expires at the end of this month. Given the news today on a debt-for-equity swap involving the Indian Government at Vodafone Idea, we explore the implications of this and whether there could be a surprise value crystallisation for Vodafone on the cards.

Iliad Q4 24: Weak EBITDA performance in France; positive read across f...

Iliad has had a mixed quarter, with French trends generally worse (in particular at EBITDAaL), but trends in Italy and Poland are more robust.

Liberty Global to buy out VodafoneZiggo? Our Take.

It is being reported that Liberty Global is in talks with Vodafone about potentially buying out their 50% stake in VodafoneZiggo.

Vodafone (Buy, 135p, +107%) Model update - German EBITDA could just gr...

Following Vodafone’s results earlier today, we now publish an updated model to reflect their comments. We reduce our price target from 150p to 135p (4.8x EBITDAaL), but still believe that Vodafone’s “ambition” to grow German EBITDA in FY26 could just be possible.

Vodafone (Buy, 150p) Q3 25: Vodafone's German Whack-A-Mole

Vodafone’s Q3 results at a headline level read absolutely fine: service revenue growth picked up to 5.2% and was ahead of consensus, and all Group guidance has been re-iterated.

Revealing the spectrum sale details from Vod-Three to O2 (potentially!...

The merger of Vodafone-Three is the biggest change in the UK wireless market in many years. But potentially the second biggest change is the size of the spectrum sale from Vod-Three to O2. This has the potential to shape competitive dynamics for years to come and we believe we have unearthed new details of the spectrum transfer to steer people in the right direction for a likely outcome.

German mobile pricing deteriorating Assessing the most recent moves

Over the past few months, we have been writing on the increased signs of competitive intensity in the German mobile market. We are only nine days into the New Year and sadly there are signs of this further heating up with new moves by DT and 1&1. In this report, we review those moves in more detail and consider the potential impact on all the companies involved (DT, Vodafone, Telefonica and 1&1).

European Telecoms: The Year Ahead 2025 Ongoing regulatory support all...

2024 saw the best outperformance for the telecoms sector since 2013 (and the third best since 2000) and ironically this came in a year with one of the lowest announced M&A volumes. We believe this is a testament to improved perception of the underlying fundamentals.

Altice International (Equal Weight) Digi (Equal Weight) NOS (Neutral, ...

Digi launched in Portugal, one month ago – read our take HERE, and our update one week after the event HERE. In this report we look at how tariffs have changed one month after the launch.

Vodafone-Three UK merger approved Our Quick Take

In this Quick Take, we highlight the key points to support the deal and also what we still don't know about the deal that could impact FWA and mobile competition in the UK, and the impact on Vodafone's valuation.

Iliad (Equal Weight) Q3 24: Good EBITDA performance, but slower MSR ...

Iliad has had a good EBITDAaL quarter, but revenue trends in France (mobile) and Italy are slower. It looks like the price competition in French mobile is having an impact.

Vodafone (Buy, 140p, +100%) Post call thoughts: What is needed to hit...

Vodafone’s H1 earnings call recently wrapped up with the stock having sold off during and after the call. We review our thoughts on this and in this note show some further analysis on what would be required to meet the FY EBITDA guidance based on the new comments given in the call.

Vodafone (Buy, 140p, +100%) H1 25 - Questions still lingering in Germ...

Vodafone has reported their H1 results, and although headline numbers were in line with expectations and all guidance has been reiterated.

Altice International (Over weight) Digi (Equal weight) NOS (Neutral, T...

Digi launched in Portugal, one week ago – read our take HERE. In this report we look at how the launch has been received in Portugal (including a run-through of tariff changes by the incumbents).

Vodafone UK-3 merger: Detailed review of CMA remedy paper

GERMAN ALTNET UPDATE: What will be the key to success?

Last week, we reviewed the UK altnet market. So this week, we turn our attention to Germany and how the fibre challengers are developing in that market. We have done a lot of work over the past few months on the MDU market in Germany for TeleColumbus and OXG. So now, we specifically focus on Deutsche Glasfaser and the recent UGG/ Infrafibre deal, as these players mount their challenge against DT in the SDU market.

UK Telcos Impact from higher employers' taxation in upcoming Budget

Over the weekend, it has been widely reported that the upcoming Budget this Wednesday will include a 2pp rise for employer national insurance tax. In this brief note, we run through the financial implications of this for the UK telecoms companies (BT, VMO2, TalkTalk and Vodafone) and who is most exposed.

Vodafone should be bold: Buy out OXG minority Unlocking synergies fro...

This week we have the DT CMD and therefore the topic of German fibre build will likely be in focus. Over the past few months, we have written a number of thematic notes looking at this topic in more detail:

Orange (Buy, TP: €14, +35%) Altice France (SFR); High Yield (Overweigh...

Last night Bouygues announced a surprise change to tariffs and updated some of its guidance. The new tariffs revolve around discounts for multiple SIMs, and follow on from Iliad’s family plan announcement on 1 October. We give our take on the new plans and the impact to the market in this short piece.

Iliad (Equal Weight) Q2 24: Strong performance, but slower MSR growth...

Iliad has posted yet another quarter of good results; key SR trends are all slightly better, as is EBITDAaL inc and ex BTS. For those looking for a read across to SFR results later today, French MSR growth is a touch slower, as are both French fixed and mobile net adds, which could mean SFR has better KPIs but weaker SR trends in our view (albeit the back book changes from SFR could be a key offset).