Iliad Q1 25: Solid results, but focus on M&A in Italy and France

Summary: Iliad has had a solid quarter overall, but French SR trends are clearly being impacted by the weakness in mobile pricing, and although Italy is performing OK, we do not believe Iliad when they say they don’t need M&A in Italy (as they did on this Q1 call), as we value Italy at a negative NPV including the cost of spectrum renewal. SFR is the only French telco yet to report; in terms of a read-across: The IFER tax (that knocked c7pp off EBITDA growth for Iliad this quarter) will not impa...

Vodafone (Buy, 135p, +82%) FY 2025: Trying to move the debate on from ...

The broad theme of Vodafone’s results remains the same as in past periods: Germany has been disappointing and has been the main focus of the market, but other parts of the business have been able to offset it, with increasing weight now on Vodacom for FY26.

Vodafone (Buy, 135p, +87%) Vodafone CFO departing: Quick thoughts

Vodafone has announced that Luka Mucic will be stepping down as Vodafone CFO by year-end, after only taking on the role in September 2023. We run through some quick thoughts on this move here and set out our estimates ahead of results in 2 weeks time

Vodafone (Buy, 135p, +93%) Vodacom upside undervalued

When talking about Vodafone with market participants, almost all of the discussion tends to be on Germany. However, this morning my colleague Chris has upgraded his estimates for Vodacom and we have increased our target from ZAR150 to ZAR180 – with the full details published here. We believe the positive benefits from Vodacom are being overlooked in the Vodafone share price and we re-visit that thesis in this note with an updated view on Vodafone.

EU TELCOS: What a recessionary scenario might look like

When the news of the Trump tariffs first hit the tapes, we didn’t write anything initially as a) we didn’t think we had much of value to add to the thousands of column inches already written on the topic, and b) the direct impact from the tariffs to the EU telecoms sector is minimal – resulting in relative outperformance for the group over the past few days.

Vodafone (Buy, 135p, +87%) India value extraction on the horizon?

Vodafone’s lock-up in India expires at the end of this month. Given the news today on a debt-for-equity swap involving the Indian Government at Vodafone Idea, we explore the implications of this and whether there could be a surprise value crystallisation for Vodafone on the cards.

Iliad Q4 24: Weak EBITDA performance in France; positive read across f...

Iliad has had a mixed quarter, with French trends generally worse (in particular at EBITDAaL), but trends in Italy and Poland are more robust.

Liberty Global to buy out VodafoneZiggo? Our Take.

It is being reported that Liberty Global is in talks with Vodafone about potentially buying out their 50% stake in VodafoneZiggo.

Vodafone (Buy, 135p, +107%) Model update - German EBITDA could just gr...

Following Vodafone’s results earlier today, we now publish an updated model to reflect their comments. We reduce our price target from 150p to 135p (4.8x EBITDAaL), but still believe that Vodafone’s “ambition” to grow German EBITDA in FY26 could just be possible.

Vodafone (Buy, 150p) Q3 25: Vodafone's German Whack-A-Mole

Vodafone’s Q3 results at a headline level read absolutely fine: service revenue growth picked up to 5.2% and was ahead of consensus, and all Group guidance has been re-iterated.

Revealing the spectrum sale details from Vod-Three to O2 (potentially!...

The merger of Vodafone-Three is the biggest change in the UK wireless market in many years. But potentially the second biggest change is the size of the spectrum sale from Vod-Three to O2. This has the potential to shape competitive dynamics for years to come and we believe we have unearthed new details of the spectrum transfer to steer people in the right direction for a likely outcome.

German mobile pricing deteriorating Assessing the most recent moves

Over the past few months, we have been writing on the increased signs of competitive intensity in the German mobile market. We are only nine days into the New Year and sadly there are signs of this further heating up with new moves by DT and 1&1. In this report, we review those moves in more detail and consider the potential impact on all the companies involved (DT, Vodafone, Telefonica and 1&1).

European Telecoms: The Year Ahead 2025 Ongoing regulatory support all...

2024 saw the best outperformance for the telecoms sector since 2013 (and the third best since 2000) and ironically this came in a year with one of the lowest announced M&A volumes. We believe this is a testament to improved perception of the underlying fundamentals.

Altice International (Equal Weight) Digi (Equal Weight) NOS (Neutral, ...

Digi launched in Portugal, one month ago – read our take HERE, and our update one week after the event HERE. In this report we look at how tariffs have changed one month after the launch.

Vodafone-Three UK merger approved Our Quick Take

In this Quick Take, we highlight the key points to support the deal and also what we still don't know about the deal that could impact FWA and mobile competition in the UK, and the impact on Vodafone's valuation.

Iliad (Equal Weight) Q3 24: Good EBITDA performance, but slower MSR ...

Iliad has had a good EBITDAaL quarter, but revenue trends in France (mobile) and Italy are slower. It looks like the price competition in French mobile is having an impact.

Vodafone (Buy, 140p, +100%) Post call thoughts: What is needed to hit...

Vodafone’s H1 earnings call recently wrapped up with the stock having sold off during and after the call. We review our thoughts on this and in this note show some further analysis on what would be required to meet the FY EBITDA guidance based on the new comments given in the call.

Vodafone (Buy, 140p, +100%) H1 25 - Questions still lingering in Germ...

Vodafone has reported their H1 results, and although headline numbers were in line with expectations and all guidance has been reiterated.

Altice International (Over weight) Digi (Equal weight) NOS (Neutral, T...

Digi launched in Portugal, one week ago – read our take HERE. In this report we look at how the launch has been received in Portugal (including a run-through of tariff changes by the incumbents).

Vodafone UK-3 merger: Detailed review of CMA remedy paper