reports
- Russell Waller
Altice France Bonds (Equal Weight) Altice France Equity (Neutral, TP: ...
The valuation of fibre assets is important for all Telco investors, but especially those looking at Altice France and Altice International. In this report we look at recent fibre deals and see if we can draw any conclusions from those deals about future valuations.
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €16.4, +21%) Bouygues (Buy, TP: €54, +39%) Altice Fra...
After months of speculation, there is finally an offer for SFR in France. The deal structure is a lot more complicated than we thought it would be, but we think the offer is a fair one. We think the offer implies a synergy payment of €4.2bn, and values the SFR equity at €15/share, if XpFibre, UltraEdge, ATS, Intelcia, and FOT are indeed worth €4bn, as the release suggests.
- Russell Waller
Altice France equity (Neutral, TP: €10.3, -14%) Altice France bonds (E...
The price war at the low end of the French mobile market, which began at the beginning of summer 2024, and which we have written about extensively (HERE, HERE, HERE and HERE), appears to be coming to an end, thanks to some tariff changes that should lead to higher APRUs. We show some new work on tariffs in France in this short report, that should be good for all the MNOs.
- Russell Waller
Altice France equity (Neutral, TP: €10.3, -14%) Altice France bonds (E...
New Altice France debt and equity is now trading. Given the material change in bond terms, and the creation of a new separately traded equity piece, we reassess our rating, and think that at these levels the bonds look pretty fairly valued, and so take the bond rating to Equal weight from Overweight (the old bonds ended up +20% from the lows), and initiate on the equity with a Neutral, as we think that the equity is already implying a high probability of a deal happening, and see minimal underli...
- Russell Waller
Altice France (Overweight) Bouygues (Buy, TP: €52, +39%) Iliad (Equal ...
There have been a few recent reports that the sale process for XpFibre has heated up. It has been suggested that a sale might eventually be pulled and the stake used as a sweetener in any eventual deal; but actually, a sale could also be the first domino in the whole M&A process, as an XpFibre sale would help to ease leverage concerns that Bouygues might have from acquiring SFR. We still think a SFR-Bouygues deal is more likely than not by year end, and that Bouygues is the best way to play this...
- Russell Waller
Altice France (SFR) (Overweight) Is Q2 the bottom for ARPU declines?
SFR reported another weak set of results last week (HERE) with B2C SR numbers for Q2 slipping to -9.1% y/y from -6.7% y/y in Q1. The results did show that SFR has basically managed to stabilise its KPI base for the second quarter running, but this appears to have come at a further cost to ARPU.
- Russell Waller
Altice France (SFR) (Overweight) Q2 25: OpFCF guidance retained despi...
Altice France has reported Q2 25 results with once again weaker SR trends; underlying EBITDA is slightly better, but still weak at -9.9% y/y ex construction from -11.6% y/y in Q1 25. Guidance for OpFCF to be higher in FY25 then FY24 has been reiterated.
- Russell Waller
Altice International (Equal Weight) Sale process Hot-ting up in Israe...
Bezeq has confirmed that its subsidiary, Pelephone, has made an offer for Altice International’s Israeli business, Hot Mobile, HERE, for NIS2bn (c€500m). In addition, it seems that Cellcom and Hot have sold their stakes in IBC, HERE. Cellcom has sold its 23% stake for NIS520m (c€130m), and we would assume that Altice has sold its 23% stake for the same amount. In this report we look at the implications of the sales for ATCI lenders.
- Russell Waller
Altice France (Overweight) Iliad (Equal Weight) Bouygues (Buy, TP: €55...
There have been several recent articles about French M&A. The latest article from TMT finance yesterday has some fairly specific details, and most importantly, seems to suggest that the price demanded for SFR is now approaching what we would see as fair value.
- Russell Waller
Altice France (Overweight) Key questions from the Q1 25 results and m...
Last week SFR reported weak numbers at the SR and EBITDA level (HERE). We are surprised the bonds have not been sold off more. Possibly that is because new OpFCF guidance is for OpFCF to be up y/y despite the EBITDA declines, and/or investors think fundamentals are not important when there is a high chance of M&A. We are overweight the bonds based on the likelihood that M&A happens this year – HERE – but absent M&A, it is hard to find much to cheer about in the results: KPIs are solid, but stabi...
- Russell Waller
Altice France (SFR) Q1 25: Positive new OpFCF guidance despite weak SR...
Altice France has reported Q1 25 results which are quite weak at both the SR and EBITDA level. There is new guidance on OpFCF, which is for it be up y/y (i.e. for capex declines to offset EBITDA declines (which slipped to –11.6% y/y ex construction from –11.2% y/y in Q4 24)), which is a positive, but we can’t help but feel that the OpFCF guidance has been given in order to distract from the weak underlying numbers. We are overweight the bonds based on the likelihood that M&A happens this year bu...
- Russell Waller
Altice France (SFR) (Over Weight) Q4 24: Trends remain tough, but som...
Altice France reported results today and gave a lot more detail than they have done recently, including allowing some Q&A on the call. We give a preliminary overview of the trends in this report and will host a call in the coming days to look at the results in more detail, as there were some interesting new developments, including comments on M&A, NPS, KPIs, xpFibre sale and HFC switch-off.
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Altice France (SFR) (Most Preferred) Altice France reaches agreement ...
Altice France has finally reached an agreement with its creditors (SSN and unsecureds). The agreement is pretty similar to the Cleansing statement (the main change being an equity stale for the unsecureds), and implies a c17% write-down in SSN before the equity stake. The equity stake is an important part of the deal, and we are currently below implied consensus expectations for the value here
- Russell Waller
Altice France (Most preferred) xpFibre ReCap and potential stake sale...
TMT has published an interview with Andras Kranicz, Managing Director and Head of Infrastructure Finance Europe, BNP Paribas, in which a €5.8bn refinancing package is mentioned for xpFibre. The article goes on to talk about a potential xpFibre stake sale by Drahi. We run through the implications of this news in this short piece
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
EU Telecoms - M&A Outlook for 2025 The Calm Before the Storm
The sector has had one of its best years for share price performance in 2024. This is impressive, but even more so when one considers that there is limited M&A premium embedded in any share prices – indeed 2024 saw the lowest amount of M&A activity since 2016.
- Russell Waller
Altice France (SFR) (Most Preferred) Q3 24: Weaker B2C SR trends in Fr...
Altice France reported results today, there was no Q&A on the call. We give a preliminary overview of the trends in this report, and will host a call on Monday of next week to look at the results in more detail, including a deep dive into valuation, as it is looks increasingly likely that bondholders will receive an equity stake in NewCo as part of any future deal with Drahi.
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Altice France (Most Preferred) Updating Drahi net worth for recent ne...
There have been several bits of SFR-related newsflow over the past week or so, including some new tariffs in France (from Bouygues HERE, and a new cut from Iliad today), some press reports on Apollo lending (HERE), an xpFibre re-fi (HERE), an extension of the SteerCo co-operation agreement to Feb 2026 (HERE), a new valuation for Drahi’s stake in German Fibre JV OXG (HERE) and a new offer to lenders from Drahi (HERE).
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