reports
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novonesis (Buy, TP: DKK470.00) - CMD and Q2 guidance increase
We view the soft Q1 trading update (c4% organic revenue growth) positively, as the weak points are Q1-related while in our view the stronger trends seem more sustainable. The 2024 guidance for organic growth of 5–7% YOY and a c35% adj. EBITDA margin was unchanged, which we believe now looks conservative. At the CMD, we expect focus on synergies and a potential increase in the long-term EBITDA margin target as likely share price catalysts. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to ...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novonesis (Buy, TP: DKK440.00) - Bridge-building to higher targets
We look past a well-flagged weak Q1e trading update to the upcoming CMD, where we expect focus on synergies and a potential increase in the long-term EBITDA margin target. We have taken a deep dive into the organic revenue bridge from the legacy divisional forecasts to the new, and the increased focus on Energy, as it is key for Planetary Health Biosolutions’ performance. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD), but reiterate our DKK440 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novonesis - Initiation of coverage - All eyes on execution
We initiate coverage of the merged entity (Novozymes and Chr Hansen) with a HOLD and DKK440 target price. We view the 2024 guidance as conservative (5–7% organic growth, c35% adj. EBITDA margin), with the organic growth guidance midpoint below the targeted 6–8% CAGR for 2023–2025 and the adj. EBITDA margin guidance c2% below the 2025 target. We note the 2025 guidance is unchanged, and find the low end of the organic growth target more realistic. We expect investor focus ahead of the CMD on 18 Ju...
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