reports
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Fiber slips further; FWA gains some ground
Georgia, New Mexico and Oklahoma have reported their BEAD proposals. We are also including the numbers released by Washington yesterday. While fiber remains the dominant technology, its share slipped further. FWA and satellite increased their share of locations. In this note, we analyze the results, compare them with estimates from our Broadband Insights database, and its implications for broadband companies.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: More state proposals; Fiber still dominant but Satellite gaining...
We now have BEAD proposals from 12 states. While fiber still remains the dominant technology, its share of locations has decreased as Satellite gains more ground. In this note, we analyze the results, compare them with estimates from our Broadband Insights database, and its implications for broadband companies.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: West Virginia releases final proposal
What’s new: West Virginia released their final proposal last night. Among large broadband operators, Frontier was the big winner. Comcast continues to feature in the list of proposed providers. Fiber continues to be the preferred technology. In this short note, we discuss the proposal, compare the results with our estimates from Broadband Insights database, provide a quick summary of BEAD proposals so far, and discuss the implications for broadband companies.
- Vikash Harlalka
2Q25 Broadband Trends
What’s new: in this report we discuss one of the drivers of slower broadband growth – a rise in mobileonly households. While we do not have the data to support it, we discuss the reasons why we find it a plausible explanation for the slower industry growth. We also update our industry forecast and reprise our work on competitive positioning of the operators based on relative cNPS scores.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Louisiana releases final proposal
Louisiana was the second state to release their final proposal at the end of last week. Virginia just beat Louisiana and was the first. Louisiana Local Fiber Consortium, which includes T-Mobile, was the big winner again. Surprisingly, Comcast was the only large Cable operator among the winners. The ILECs won less than we expected. Fiber continues to be the technology of choice for BEAD. In this short note, we discuss the proposal, compare the results with our estimates from Broadband Insights da...
- Vikash Harlalka
- Vikash Harlalka
- Vikash Harlalka
ATUS 2Q25 Quick Take: Subs beat but EBITDA missed; Guidance unchanged
EBITDA missed expectations again but guidance for the year remains unchanged. The miss was driven by lower broadband revenue and higher other operating expenses. The guidance implies that EBITDA will grow by at least 3% in the back half of the year. This seems unlikely on the surface, but management has implemented a 5% workforce reduction in 2Q which they expect to help meet EBITDA guidance for the year.
- Vikash Harlalka
Autumn for Broadband 2Q25
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Net adds remained nearly flat compared to a year ago (when adjusted for ACP impact) but were within the pre-pandemic norm. Industry subscriber trends have mostly stabilized over the past 3 quarters, but y/y growth remains below pre-pandemic levels.
- Vikash Harlalka
- Jonathan Chaplin
There is more Cable and Fiber M&A coming
This report provides a detailed update to our fiber forecast, with implications for the Fiber and Cable operators. The analysis suggests a strong incentive for Mobile and Cable operators to continue to consolidate assets. The analysis leverages the latest release of FCC data coupled with new features and data sets that have been built into Broadband Insights.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Updating Price Targets for One Big Beautiful Bill Act
We have updated the price targets for our coverage as a result of the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Prior to the bill becoming law, we had already added the value of tax reform to our price targets on a probability-weighted basis. We have now increased the probability from 75% to 100%.
- Blair Levin
Rethinking BEAD 2.0 as States Rethink Their Options
Earlier this month, as expected, Secretary of Commerce Lutnick released new rules for BEAD, requiring all the states to rebid and prioritizing the lowest cost option. Our initial reaction was that the new rules would shift funds from fiber to satellite, a negative for wired providers including CMSCA, CHTR, T, and VZ/FYBR. We still think that but in talking to numerous stakeholders, that magnitude of the shift may be less than we initially thought. In this note we examine two themes that have ...
- Jonathan Chaplin
A closer look at Cox footprint
We’ve been getting questions from clients about competitive dynamics in Cox’s markets after Charter announced its acquisition. In this note, we use Broadband Insights to explore the fiber competition in Cox’s markets today and in the future, who the largest competitors are, and market demographics.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS 1Q25 Quick Take: EBITDA missed but EBITDA guidance increased
EBITDA missed expectations. Broadband adds were in line with our estimate but missed consensus (we suspect buy-side was closer to our estimate on adds and EBITDA). Management quantified the impact of the programming dispute on results. Adjusting for this, adds would have been a little better than our estimate but EBITDA would still have missed.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 1Q25
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Net adds declined from an already weak pace a year ago and are well below the pre-pandemic norm. The expected recovery following the end of ACP didn’t materialize. We ponder whether growth is structurally lower, or whether temporary ACP-related pressures have persisted longer than expected.
- Jonathan Chaplin
4Q24 Broadband Trends: Our broadband forecast
In this report we highlight a disconnect between our top-down forecast and our and “Consensus” bottom-up forecast for broadband subscribers. Either market growth is much worse than it appeared at the end of 2024, or Cable adds will be better than expected. We also update our top-down forecast and reprise our work on competitive positioning of the operators based on relative cNPS scores.
- Jonathan Chaplin
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