reports
- Jonathan Chaplin
T-Mobile 2Q25 Results Review & Model Update
In this note we review results, update the model, and compare updated guidance and our updated estimates to consensus. 2Q25 results were quite strong. The company beat on postpaid phone and FWA net adds as well as postpaid phone ARPU. Service revenue, EBITDA and FCF were all well ahead of expectations. Consensus for 2025 net adds and free cash flow are all but certain to rise. We also believe there is meaningful upside to estimates for free cash flow in 2026 and 2027 from tax reform. (Buy; $TP: ...
- Jonathan Chaplin
T-Mobile: quick thoughts following the 2Q25 call
We will review results and model updates in a separate note. In this note we cover comments on wholesale aspirations, convergence positioning, fiber M&A, the pace of growth in fiber JVs, the Company’s appetite for more spectrum, the implications of the 800MHz sale price, capital allocation priorities, and growth in the mobile and broadband markets.
- Jonathan Chaplin
New Cable MVNO – implications for Cable and Mobile operators
Charter and Comcast announced that they have signed an MVNO with T-Mobile that will target new business customers (here). In this quick note we provide thoughts on implications for Verizon, T-Mobile, Charter, Comcast, and the industry more broadly.
- Jonathan Chaplin
There is more Cable and Fiber M&A coming
This report provides a detailed update to our fiber forecast, with implications for the Fiber and Cable operators. The analysis suggests a strong incentive for Mobile and Cable operators to continue to consolidate assets. The analysis leverages the latest release of FCC data coupled with new features and data sets that have been built into Broadband Insights.
- Blair Levin
What Does FCC TMUS Approval Tell Us About SATS, Media Consolidation, a...
As expected, the FCC approved the TMUS/USM transaction. In this note, we analyze what the FCC Order doing so tells us about other potential transactions, including SATS’ spectrum sales, other wireless deals, broadcast consolidation, and cable consolidation.
- Jonathan Chaplin
DOJ on spectrum and fourth carrier
The DOJ made some surprising comments on the importance of a fourth carrier and the dangers of the three national carriers acquiring more spectrum in its decision on USM (decision here). Please see Blair’s note for the definitive view on regulatory implications. We provide some quick thoughts on implications for Wireless Carriers and Cable in this brief note.
- Blair Levin
DOJ Approves TMUS But with a Big But (That Affects SATS)
As expected, the DOJ has approved TMUS’ acquisition of USM. But the approval had language that suggests that the DOJ may be more troubled than we anticipated with the prospect of SATS selling its spectrum to the Big Three wireless carriers. In this note we analyze the DOJ language and what it means for SATS and the sector.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Updating Price Targets for One Big Beautiful Bill Act
We have updated the price targets for our coverage as a result of the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Prior to the bill becoming law, we had already added the value of tax reform to our price targets on a probability-weighted basis. We have now increased the probability from 75% to 100%.
- Blair Levin
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Mobile and broadband pair trades to consider this summer
While we have been intensively focused on such things as a Presidential intervention to prevent a Chapter 11, we admit that our mind occasionally drifts to thoughts of summer. So to help others who may have similar thoughts, we thought, in honor of summer beginning, we should provide our thoughts as to which alcohols pair best with the purchase of the stocks we cover (actually, we just asked ChatGPT and, given its attitude about intellectual property, we have no fears about just cutting and pas...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Winter for wireless 1Q25
This note explores the drivers of growth and market share shifts in Mobile in 1Q25. Industry net adds, switching, and upgrades all increased sharply. Investors are wrestling with whether the market is healthy or whether the increase in activity reflects a pull-forward of activity from later in the year driven either by consumers’ concerns over the impact of tariffs on handset prices or by unusually aggressive promotions. We suspect that activity was pulled forward (as do two of the carriers)...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 1Q25
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Net adds declined from an already weak pace a year ago and are well below the pre-pandemic norm. The expected recovery following the end of ACP didn’t materialize. We ponder whether growth is structurally lower, or whether temporary ACP-related pressures have persisted longer than expected.
- Jonathan Chaplin
T-Mobile 1Q25 Results Review & Model Update: Adds in-line; EBITDA st...
This note covers results in detail, updates to guidance, updates to the model, and trending charts. We remain above consensus for net adds and EBITDA (and our EBITDA estimate is conservative). We continue to think T-Mobile is the best positioned in a market with rising competition given lower ARPU, higher capacity, and great momentum. Buy ($308; +19%).
- Jonathan Chaplin
T-Mobile: Quick thoughts following the 1Q25 call
What’s new: in this note we cover the case for T-Mobile buying a cable asset and what we learned about the odds of this from the call, new insights into T-Mobile’s fiber strategy, what it means for Cable and Fiber assets, further thoughts on the slowdown in growth in the broadband market, important insights into what might be driving the strength in the mobile market, and how T-Mobile will approach tariffs. We will publish a separate comprehensive review of results and model update shortly.
- Blair Levin
In Good News for CMSCA, DIS (and Robocallers and Pirate Radio, Among O...
What’s New: The Fifth Circuit overturned the FCC’s 2020 and 2024 decisions to impose a $57 million fine against T for actions related to improper use customer data. Based on a recent Supreme Court decision, the appellate court ruled that the FCC actions violate T’s Seventh Amendment right to a jury trial, likely upending broader FCC enforcement efforts. In this note we analyze the impact of the Court’s decision on our coverage universe generally and well as specifically to some of the companie...
- Jonathan Chaplin
T-Mobile's most recent price moves suggest rising competition
What’s new: Verizon reported mid-single-digit growth in gross adds after amending their offers in mid-March and double-digit growth in gross adds after launching a three-year price guarantee in April. T-Mobile responded with new plans that include a five-year price guarantee this morning. We cover implications for the industry in this quick comment.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Conflicting expectations in mobile and broadband
In our Broadband Trends report published this week, we show that bottom-up forecasts are well below our top-down forecast. The disconnect is all in Cable, and mostly in Comcast. We don’t have enough conviction in our top-down forecast to make a call on Comcast, particularly ahead of 1Q25 results where management has provided very clear context on trends, but we suspect results for the year won’t be as bad as feared. By contrast in our Wireless Trends report last week, we showed that our forecas...
- Jonathan Chaplin
4Q24 Broadband Trends: Our broadband forecast
In this report we highlight a disconnect between our top-down forecast and our and “Consensus” bottom-up forecast for broadband subscribers. Either market growth is much worse than it appeared at the end of 2024, or Cable adds will be better than expected. We also update our top-down forecast and reprise our work on competitive positioning of the operators based on relative cNPS scores.
- Jonathan Chaplin
4Q24 Wireless Trends: Expectations for net adds are too high
This report focuses on drivers of subscriber growth in 2025. Expectations for net adds are too high, though expectations for service revenue and EBTDA look fine. We also reprised our work on comparative NPS, provide a comprehensive review of 4Q24 trends, and update our long-term forecast
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Wireless Update: Kennedy Cancer Concerns
Plus, a Round One Win for T on 4.9 GHz, TMUS modifies DEI initiative, Carr Signals Hope for Reallocating Military Spectrum as CTIA Presses on Its Spectrum Needs and Its New Leader (Pai) Signals Splits with Carr on Merger Review Approach While there have been major developments in the last week on the future of USF, BEAD, and merger reviews, there have been smaller, but still significant, developments related to the future of wireless services. In this update, we cover those developments. The on...
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