reports
- David Barden
TMUS: Setting up for 1Q results
We are updating our model based on our recent conversations with management and comments at industry conferences. The only major change is that we’ve lowered postpaid account net adds for 1Q following Srini’s comments about seasonality at an industry conference (full year estimate is nearly unchanged). We got some updated color that has rebalanced our quarterly estimates for the year.
- David Barden
- Vikash Harlalka
Broadband cNPS comparisons by tech & operator - The latest data availa...
Scouring the data in this report, we’d point you to the appendix for a quick review. What stands out is that when a broadband customer interacts with a sales rep, presumably they are doing so with a problem or request that an automated or AI-driven IVR cannot address. Almost without fail, sales rep interactions are the Achilles heal of the market right now and likely a core reason, care scores suffer. The operator that can solve this puzzle, and it could be cable, has a window to shift their rel...
- David Barden
- Vikash Harlalka
Broadband Spring 2026 – A fine time for FWA
In this Broadband Spring report, we share a quick update on broadband industry trends from 4Q25 heading into 2026E. Industry net adds improved meaningfully in 4Q25 from a year ago but remained slightly below last year when we adjust for the loss of ACP. Net adds for the quarter were in line with the pre-pandemic norm but trailing twelve-month net adds remain below pre-pandemic levels. We take a deep-dive here into FWA’s continued strong momentum, by carrier, and how it fits into the overall broa...
- David Barden
- David Barden
Takeaways from Metro Connect 2026 Day One
Greetings from sunny, if chilly Fort Lauderdale where we are attending Metro Connect which one of our companies described as one of the two most important infrastructure conferences of the year. We are soooo lucky not to have gotten snowed in. If you are in the northeast, please stay warm! We just wrapped Day One where we had meetings and run-ins with many, primarily, small to mid-size private fiber operators. In this short note, we present our key takeaways from our conversations at the event.
- David Barden
TMUS: Model update post CMD
TMUS recently held their Capital Markets Day (CMD) in conjunction with 4Q results. We covered key highlights from the CMD in our note published last week. Long story short, TMUS met or exceeded most of our expectations with their guidance. In this note, we cover changes to our financial estimates and compare them with consensus and guidance. We also share our trend charts for key metrics to put the current quarter in context.
- David Barden
TMUS: Seems pretty much ok after all
Following weak relative performance on a host of concerns heading into its 4Q results and CMD, we believe the company successfully, but not totally, soothed the market. What were these concerns? Weak sub growth in the face of an ascendant Verizon, falling ARPU in an intensifying competitive climate, mediocre EBITDA growth as a result of both, and cautious capital returns as a result. By and large TMUS met or exceeded, in our view, on most of these issues. The one thing people did not like? The N...
- David Barden
T-Mobile 4Q25 Quick Take: Stay tuned
T-Mobile posted 4Q results and guidance this morning ahead of their capital markets day featuring new CEO Srini Gopalan. We are sitting in the cold lobby waiting for the doors to open crunching through the numbers. TMUS is no longer guiding to subscriber growth, but rather accounts. The guidance for 900k-1MM new accounts for 2026E x 2.5 postpaid phones per account at the end of 2025 implies 2.25-2.5MM postpaid phone nets which is a bit below where the Street was thinking. This being said, TMUS h...
- Blair Levin
T Threats Limited in Senate FirstNet Hearing; House Hearing This Week
In a legislative battle pitting the interests of T v. VZ and TMUS, the Senate held a hearing last week on the reauthorization of the FirstNet Authority (FNA), with the House holding another one this coming Wednesday. In this note, we analyze the first hearing as well as a draft House bill with an eye toward whether the upcoming Congressional action is likely to change the current economics of public safety communications for T, VZ, and TMUS.
- David Barden
Wireless: Key controversies heading into US wireless 4Q25 results and ...
We can’t remember a time when investors were as nervous about wireless earnings as they are going into 4Q25 results. We think this concern is by and large overblown and we will all come out feeling consoled on the other side of this earnings cycle. In this short note, we discuss the key controversies impacting the wireless sector currently and our perspective.
- Blair Levin
What’s at Stake for T (and VZ and TMUS) in the Upcoming FirstNet Autho...
Tomorrow, weather permitting, the Senate Commerce Committee will hold a hearing on the FirstNet Authority (FNA). Generally, we don’t write about Congressional hearings as they focus on sound bites rather than policy relevant to investors. Here, however, the hearing could prove market relevant. FNA has a contract with T, but Congress must act if the FNA is to be reauthorized past 2027. And the battle over the terms of that reauthorization pits T v. VZ and TMUS. In this note we provide backg...
- David Barden
The future of US wireless, right now - Extrapolating 3Q25 wireless tre...
We are taking 3Q25 results and the most recent cNPS data and laying out our latest thinking and forecasts ahead of 4Q results. We expect 4Q results and attendant 2026 guidance to contain material information value for investors and we wanted to share our latest forecasts, data, and trends as a starting point as we navigate this impactful season.
- David Barden
- Vikash Harlalka
The future of broadband 3Q25: Our updated broadband industry forecast ...
In this report, our latest broadband outlook tome, in addition to forecasting the future of broadband by technology for the next 5 years, we undertake a sensitivity analysis for Cable's end-state market share possibilities. We also refresh our work on the relative competitive positioning of carriers based on end-user cNPS scores via our Recon Analytics partnership.
- David Barden
- David Barden
Autumn for Broadband 3Q25 – FWA ascendant, Cable struggling
We share here, in our latest Autumn for Broadband report, a quick update on broadband industry trends based on reported company results so far. Industry net adds have improved substantially from a year ago but remain below last year’s when adjusted for ACP impact. Net adds for the quarter were higher than the pre-pandemic norm but trailing twelve-month net adds remain below pre-pandemic levels. We take a deep-dive into FWA’s continued strong momentum by carrier.
- David Barden
TMUS: A great house, but the neighborhood? We need convincing...
TMUS had a strong quarter, and the stock was down. We believe the reason is the general concern that Verizon will say something on 10/29 that makes investors run for the hills. Verizon, in our view, must prioritize 2 objectives, 1) explain how change is coming, and that this is a good thing, but at the same time 2) assure a jittery market that VZ will not burn down the neighborhood in which they own the largest house. We think they will be able to do both, and we are optimistic.
- David Barden
T-Mobile 3Q25 Quick Take: Strong results; guidance raised
Postpaid phone net adds beat by a big margin. FWA net adds were higher as well. Revenue and EBITDA also beat slightly. The company has raised guidance across the board and now expects higher subscriber adds, higher EBITDA as well as higher FCF. The stock should trade up on the beat and guidance increase. Cable may be soft again due to the FWA beat.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Update for the Lone Star State
We have updated our BEAD analysis to include the proposal from Texas which was allocated the largest amount of BEAD funding. We now include BEAD proposals from 52 states & territories in our below analysis. We have also updated the analysis for states that have revised their proposals.
- David Barden
- David Barden
3Q25 Broadband Estimate Deep Dive
If you are one of those eager contrarians looking for the quarter where a combination of discount valuations and even a modest turnaround in cable KPI trends could boost the stocks, this probably ain’t it. The cable industry continues to lose subscribers at an elevated pace with Comcast doing worse than Charter thanks to the 1-2 punch of fiber and FWA.
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