Q2 was neutral, with POC-based adj. EPS of SEK-0.1 in line with our forecast. In our view, one positive was the 73 units sold in Q2 (12 in Q2 2023), with Besqab starting sales for five new projects. We have made limited estimate revisions. On an IFRS basis, we expect weak and volatile 2024–2025 earnings until merger synergies materialise, and ramped-up project starts from 2025. A key factor to monitor is the supply of used homes, which likely needs to be absorbed prior to a recovery within new h...
We continue to see upside potential for diversified construction (Skanska, NCC and Veidekke), but downside risk for residential developers (YIT, JM, Peab and Selvaag Bolig) that have rallied on improving market expectations while new housing sales remains lacklustre. We await the adaptation of the recently EU-approved Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD). We see a mixed picture for EPS ahead of the Q2 reporting season. We keep a neutral sector view, and still recommend a stock-pickin...
We have updated our estimates following the merger of Aros Bostad and Besqab. On an IFRS basis, we expect weak and volatile 2024–2025 earnings until synergies materialise, with gradually ramped-up project starts from 2025. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK28 target price.
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