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Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Ventura Offshore (Buy, TP: NOK50.00) - First step taken

With Carolina booked until early 2029, we believe the company has taken the first step for significant shareholder returns from 2027e. Despite uncertainty in the global deepwater market, locally owned rigs in Brazil benefit from a significant cost advantage. In a scenario with a similar contract for its other Brazil-based rig and its Southeast Asia rig keeps working, we believe the entire market cap could be distributed in dividends over 2027–2028. The stock is trading at a 2027e EV/EBITDA of 0....

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

First award confirmed under Petrobras ‘rig pool’ tender

Constellation confirmed the contract award under the Petrobras ‘rig pool’ tender after being the low bidder on Lot 1 with its 6G drillship Amaralina Star (dayrate of cUSD429k including third-party services). Based on the confirmation of Constellation, we believe the remaining two awards in the ‘rig pool’ tender have likely also been concluded, with Etesco’s 6G drillship Etesco Takatsugu J (USD352k) and Seadrill’s 7G drillship West Jupiter (around the USD450k level) as the low bidders. As highlig...

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

ExxonMobil update highlights efficiency, no incremental demand for oil...

From an oil services perspective, we consider the key takeaway from ExxonMobil’s corporate update to be continued high and improving capital efficiency, allowing it to do “more with less”. By 2030e, it plans to increase production by c1m barrels per day to 5.4m barrels per day on largely flat upstream capex compared to 2023–2024 levels. This implies further efficiency improvement, which we consider on the downside for the oil services industry as it implies no need for incremental service capaci...

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Petrobras rig pool tender appears to have awarded three of four rig sl...

For the Petrobras ‘rig pool’ tender, which had bids due in mid-October, bid evaluation appears to have been completed. The tender was for “up to” four deepwater rigs with 3-year duration across three lots. It seems Petrobras has only progressed with three of the maximum four rigs it could award. Lots 1 and 2 appear to have gone to local contractors Constellation and Etesco, while only Seadrill was selected in Lot 3, making up the three rigs in total (meaning Valaris was not selected in Lot 3). W...

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Petrobras FPSO delays may hit service volumes but lengthen cycle

Being the largest global consumer of deepwater oil services, Petrobras’ strategic plans tend to get investor attention. On the positive side, its latest 5-year plan sees 5% higher E&P spending than the previous one, and has a more stable phasing between the years, which is supportive for the cycle duration. However, several FPSOs are facing significant delays, which is on the downside for oil services, leading to delays for deepwater oilfield services (primarily drilling and subsea), likely resu...

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Pemex effect looks to be limited for now

Following uncertainty yesterday related to Pemex’s 2024 budget cuts and potential reduction in rig count, we understand that the initial effect looks to be limited to a handful of rigs (potentially four) for a short period only. Affected rigs look to be locally owned units, which suggest that international contractors (Borr Drilling and Paratus Energy) are not affected. Hence, we now see a scenario with less-direct effect for international contractors than feared by the capital market yesterday....

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Jackup uncertainty building

With reports of Pemex budget cuts and potential rig suspensions, additional uncertainty is added to the jackup market. The overhang from two rounds of Saudi Aramco suspensions (totalling 28 rigs, c6% of global supply) have been slow to absorb, and are likely to persist through 2025. With looming risk of even more Aramco suspensions, and rigs possibly being released in Mexico, we see a continued high competitive environment on new tenders. Dayrates for most premium jobs are cUSD120k–130k (a tad b...

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Pemex saving plans add to jackup uncertainty

Several news reports suggest Pemex plans to cut USD1.4bn from its E&P budget this year. As the budget reduction is aimed at drilling, among others, we see a risk of jackup suspension. Pemex has 26 jackups chartered from contractors, with Borr Drilling and Paratus (through Fontis Energy) having most exposure with five rigs each, and such rigs representing 18% and 41% of 2025e EBITDA. The duration of suspensions appears unclear for now; while savings are limited to this year’s budget, reports sugg...

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Petrobras rig pool tender saw limited competition and likely supportiv...

Today, the Petrobras ‘rig pool’ tender for up to four deepwater rigs with 3-year duration across three lots closed. Initially, it appears that seven contractors with nine rigs participated, split between four locals (Constellation, Etesco, Foresea and Ventura) and three international contractors (Seadrill, Valaris and Transocean). Hence, the participation would be less than at the recent Petrobras tender for Sepia/Atapu, which saw nine contractors taking part with 15 rigs. With different technic...

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Petrobras set to reduce 2025 capex

Petrobras is expected to reduce 2025 capex from USD21bn to around USD17bn, according to a Reuters article today. Petrobras has a 5-year capex plan, but there are usually changes to its plans, and “current year” / “near-term” spending has a track-record of being revised lower (2024 capex was recently cut c24% to USD13.5bn–14.5bn), as Petrobras has struggled with value-chain delays. The updated spending represents YOY growth in 2025 of c21% (versus c50% earlier). The article mentions equipment pri...

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